Derps were betting big money on every aspect after the election.

You could find big action in the right places or one to one with Derps directly on :

- sure the election is now called but it won't be certified
- ok it is certified but Biden will not be sworn in Jan 6
- Ok he is sworn in but that will be overturned
- and so on and so on, with regards to numerous Pillow Case court and other disclosures

Heck even today, if you canvassed wide enough you could probably find derps who would put money on the SC overturning the election results before Biden finishes his term, it is just harder to find a site that is mediating that action. But there would be guys who would bet you one to one.

Yup.

But in my view (as per my prior post) I think it is the Post Jan6 stuff that is a direct result of Jan6 that is most dangerous.

It is that Trump has swayed a significant enough percent of the population that current US Democracy is broken and needs to be replaced that is the #1 danger.

Whether people believe Trump and Co can or will succeed is not the main issue. If they do not have enough of the populace on side and have not driven out enough of the people who can and would do their Constitutional duty and deny them.. then they cannot complete their plan.

So while what happened prior was very bad, what has been happening since is far more dangerous as the safe guards are being removed to ensure if they get to that point again, the systems checks and balances will not be there to stop them.

I was going to ask him to defend that statement but then thought 'nope'.

I assume his response will be some round about tangential reply that the US created and sponsored all the elements that lead to both Osama and the situation in Afghanistan and thus any result from that is the American's killing other Americans since the US gov't is ultimately responsible for them.

While that argument has some place in certain discussions it is not a rebuttal to my point above.

I thought it was a typo actually.

America may have been responsible for the policies that allowed the radicals to have motivation to attack us but, that's not Americans killing Americans 'literally'.

Damn, congrats!

That article is very misleading to say Trump $ was what was keeping the odds where they were, not like Biden was some massive fav and free money. The election ended up being very close.


On Election Day, FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Biden an 89 percent chance to win. Betting markets, on the other hand, generally placed Biden between 60 and 70 percent.

Usually, portraying one side as more likely to win than they should be (and thus lowering the payout if they win) sends bettors in the other direction. But for Trump fans, it seems possible that the betting odds acted as “proof” that the polls were wrong, the smart people knew it, and their man would win.

lol @ anyone that thinks Silver's 89% was closer to the efficient line than the 65-70% range pre-election day.

Same people with that logic are the ones that got smoked on Hillary in 2016


Totally agree betting Biden post election was free money though, didn't know there were big opps for that though given limits and also obviously you had to lay a big # to win a small # (even tho it was risk free)

I wasn't really following the live markets that night, but I think the spot where you could have made a ton of money was after FL was called for Trump. Superficially, it eliminated the Biden blow out path and helped Trump, but if you dug into district by district data, Biden was doing much better than Clinton with suburban whites and other key/large groups while Trump was only doing as well or better with smaller and FL specific groups.

As the States were all called by the MSM for Biden, but Trump screamed "Stop the Count' and 'Rigged' the derps were still betting as if it was undeniable Trump would win.

Right up to certification they were convinced of that and offering good odds.

So even if someone did not make money post the certification there was lots to made on the run up.

Yeah, and also the mail-ins were counted last. But that isn't "Trump derpers are moving the line and creating inefficiency for smart people", that's just the market collectively overreacted to Trump initially outperforming likely because it was looking like 2016 de ja vu.

Sure but as things transitioned from Trump being ahead, then Mail in votes tipping it to Biden and the MSM calling it for Biden, the derps believed and kept betting the Mail In votes would be disqualified and Trumps win preserved.

They were throwing good money at that belief before certification and moving the line and creating inefficiency that smart people could make money on.

Yeah but that isn't all the article talks about, it acts like the discrepancy between published models and the betting line meant fading Trump was some massively +EV opportunity, and while it is subjective, that likely isn't true.

Right, I wasn't making a point about who was moving the markets, just that the market moved on the FL call based on him winning without really looking at the details of how he won and how tough it would be to win in states like PA and WI given the massive gains Biden made vs Clinton among college educated high voting propensity whites.

Ya, no, I am not referring to the article.

I am pointing out that aside from whatever the article says these (the opportunities I named) where massive +EV betting opportunities created by TDS and the Derps throwing money at the most ridiculous beliefs that Trump was still going to win, both up to certification and then well after certification.

yeah I've said post-election all that stuff was ridiculous, but anyone saying they faded Trump pre-election in the -160/-180ish range and won and that was free (which I did bet like I said but I gotta be objective) isn't being objective....The Nate Silver/other models predicting 90% chance Biden would win based on the polls were wrong.

I thought the pollsters would do better this time around and cleanup the issues that failed them in swing states in '16 but alas that was wrong, just happy it held up. It was like betting a TD fav in NFL on the moneyline and they won by a FG. You take it, but Trump was underrated by the market in '16 and '20 if anything imo

Its interesting that you believe the bulk of the money was made in the last couple weeks before the election (ignoring the utterly crazy live betting scenarios on election night) when it was at the -160 level.

https://smarkets.com/event/42461161/...nt-before-2025

Been backed at 5-1 iirc

I think the biggest action was pre certification. Once it was known Biden won and most of the MSM had called it but it was not yet certified.

It was clear to anyone who was not a derp at that time that it was over even though AZ was not officially called for the longest time.

The derps clung to the idea that Mail In votes would not be counted and the election would be certified for Trump.

Well I should clarify as the Derps were protesting and chanting in areas where Trump was close but slightly behind and gaining that every vote, mail in and otherwise should be counted. It was just where Biden was behind and gaining it needed to be stopped.

Polls were within their historical error. RCP got Biden's vote % to within .2%. If 538 was saying 89% and you think it was actually 70% that also is fine. You can't expect polls or models of elections to do better. You're asking for too much.

Interesting. i don't want to take a bunch of time on that site (plus I have never done anything on a bet set ever) but does that mean that still 10% of money is being waged that Trump will be in power, and Biden out before the next election, or is that just the weighting of opinions?

If it is actual money being bet is there a way to tell how many dollars are still being bet?

i have an ex colleague who runs a small quirky offshore hedge fund and I am sure he would buy every penny of that action for as close to zero risk return as you will get on any investment. I mean this is gov't bond type safe and people buy those with the low yield simply because they are no risk.

I doubt there is enough liquidity to interest large investors. Some of the bets might be people who erroneously think that if Trump wins in 2024, they win the bet. Though I think the lowest price was around the time of one of the Qanon BS/arizona audit rumours, so there might be a sprinkling of trying to own the libs as well

jfc

its complete revisionism to act like Trump was a lock to lose. unstuck was positively apoplectic around for like 6 hours on election night and many ppl went to bed thinking democracy was over (lol).

you are doing the same thing the Tumper "derps" did in 2016 when they acted like it was a lock the whole time.

as usual, libs=conservativesackers fans=bears fans. you both root for laundry.

The fact is Trump beat their queen and they still, honestly can't accept it.

The Democratic party is the problem at this point. It has been since at least Clinton. Someone realized that the average voter has no place to go and that was, basically the end of a representative democracy in the US.

I'm not saying it can't be saved but....it's not in the process of being saved at the moment. It's still business as usual, give the poors no choice. And it's starting to get ugly.

But....then again, you can always blame Bernie. He won't mind. Poor old sap.

it cant be saved bc all of the influential forces are pushing in the same direction. there has really only been a brief period of prosperity for "average voter" and that was due to combination of the Great Depression, WW2, and the fear of Communism.

alternatively, you could argue theres nothing to save bc things are as they should be.

Well, we were founded as a slave economy. The bottom line is the elites were supposed to have a say in the government but not the average denizen so....yeah.

The problem is Europe has become democratic in the interim and now with the internet everyone can compare notes. That will likely stop once the fascists take over though. Should be in 2 years or less.

Then the test will start. Will we just accept it or will be try and save the republic. I kind of think it's the former. Americans are pretty lame.