..

debates wont mater. I really really thought sanders destroyed biden in the last debate and tore him up for half of that debate. and im far far more of a biden fan than sanders

literally after th debate not only was media toasting biden but numbers showed that as well

Debates matter. It is why Nixon may have lost to JFK. Never know.

Biden’s VP candidate will also play a big role.

1) He's not a Dem.
2) He's smart.
3) A slight bit more honest than most politicians.
4) Hasn't been in a position to be as corrupt as most politicians.
5) Aggressive.
6) Doesn't care for hippies, AOC, BLM, HRC, BHO and Commies.

Those, of course, are just my opinions and not facts...

We can agree those are not all facts, but assuming they were true, those are enough to get you past the racism and sexism?

imo, Biden is positioned well on the debates. on a scale from 1 to 5 (easy to hard) i think the topics are a 1 and trump as an opponent is a 2.

GOP has bet a lot of chips on Biden blowing the debates, and maybe he will, but they should really have a backup plan to attack him.

I would legit just take whe approach sanders did at biden. biden aces if he said hes learned and adapted over the years. but bidens track record is pretty jarring to progressives.

If trump thnks he did a far better job with pharma, prison and black reform id like to see him try to take that stab.

I really hope biden punches back with some things since I would e eage to see how trump dances and responds to certain things. to me, its just gonna be obama bashing 2.0

if trump spends his time bashing someone with 70% approval among independents who isn't running, i'd say he's a 1 out of 5 difficulty as an opponent

I think the 1-5 scale kind of underscores how advantageous the topics are for Biden. Nobody in history has had to defend a record like Trump; impeached for corruption, 10 point gain in unemployment since he took over, worst in world response to pandemic he tried to minimize. It would be 1 on a scale of 1-100 also.

Funny
You speak as if you are part of a majority .....

is racism really the worst thing out there now?

a lot of places are plenty racist but are prosperous which leads to people who are discriminated against moving there

just look at saudi arabia for example - much worse happens there but people go there for the money

i don't even know when racism became the number one talking point in america tbh seems really weird

there are much worse discrimination that happen in the world but people seem to be fine with it - being ugly and stupid is much worse in society and looked down heavily but people don't really care

I rather face black discrimination than be born either stupid or ugly tbh

....................

Biden is a huge fave in the Predictit.org betting market
the price shown is how much you would have to pay to get paid back $1.00 for each share if you hold until the final result

to convert to horse racing odds Biden will pay about 3/5 and Trump will pay 5/2
to convert to sports betting odds Biden is about -160 and Trump is +250
before PredictIt extracts some more vig - they charge an additional 5% to make a withdrawal - charging also on what you deposited - that's sick

this is from this morning:




to show the extent of PredictIt.org's suckerization of its patrons consider this:

if you bet no on Hilary, Harris, or Pence and paid .98 if and when you win your bet you would still lose money

because they're going to extract a 5% withdrawal fee including on what you deposited - insane

suck it libs

What does this tell you?

Not to distract from the discussion about hippies, but it does not quite work like that, and I know as I have to deal with Skrill transfer fees and at times exchange fees and country based fees (Romania for instance) when working with players. You would definitely "lose" money if you cashed out your whole balance, including those winnings, after winning those bets, but I would suggest that is not the best approach to how to move money given the cash out fee, and I doubt many would do that.

Assuming one does not do a single churn of every dollar ie: you cash out every time you complete a bet, then the 5% fee is quite a bit lower when measured against how much is wagered, though it is still a fee that is part of the market rate, though it may not be that significant given that most do a lot of multiples of their bankroll in wagering (ie: I doubt many do long term plays to make 2-3%).

I would definitely agree that the betting markets like that are a reasonable snapshot of the current situation so the fact it went from 60 40 Trump to 60 40 Biden is pretty significant, and the betting markets (while not perfect) tend to be more money based than actual politics based, so I would definitely look at that trend as something a hippie/mask hating Trump supporter should be concerned about.

Anyway, back to hippies, communists and evil geography!

you have a point - but still, the fact that they would allow for the possibility of a patron winning a bet but still losing money is telling

that could happen in horse racing too, if the regulations did not in this situation did not require the track to disregard the effect of the takeout in parimutuel betting in certain situations

if 95% of the money was bet on an extreme favorite in the show pool a bettor could lose money on his bet. a $2.00 bet could pay back only $1.80.
but horse racing regulations require the track (in the U.S.) to pay back a minimum 5% profit or $2.10 on a $2.00 bet.

they did not want their patrons to win a bet but still lose money

obviously, that is the right way for a book to go
or just not offer the bet at all
because making a bet when you cannot possibly win money on that bet is irrational - unless the book hopes the bettor doesn't notice that fact and greedily scarfs up their profit while screwing their customers

I don't think they are completely compatible in that nearly all horse racing bets are individual bets that get cashed out after the race. Sure, some are doing better via online sites where they can keep their balance there, but most are still one and done bets, whether at the track or at shops that handle the betting.

The political betting market is almost never a one and done bet situation for the people who participate in it. The possible exceptions would be the Super Bowl type markets (like who will win the Presidency), but the 97/3 markets are all very low activity ones, and again I doubt many are doing that as a one time investment and then cashing out.

I get your point, but I do not think it perfectly applies here.

Anyway, we should get back to "reality" and watch how the Trump show blames others today, with Fauci and the CDC being today's best bets as targets. Hippies and communists will have to wait for their day!

Unless Phish is in town--then all bets are off

I hear ya but i do think there is a marked difference between Nixon and the broader Republican party and Trump and the broader Republican party.

Ultimately it was the Republican party that held Nixon to account. They said 'enough. We were not a part of this. We did not condone this. You have lost support and will be punished.' And they did it. They did not force the electorate hand to step in and to be the one to punish Nixon, thus rebuking the Republican party for not doing their sworn constitutional job of being a check and balance to a corrupt POTUS.

Trump Republican base to the person (outside Romney) is now not just complicit in his illegal actions but they empower him. He has got more bold and does worse and worse things now he knows there is ability to check him.

If you force the electorate to now step in say 'ENOUGH this must stop', they then know it is both the POTUS and the broader party that must go.

And i am not saying this means that core 30% mutiny as I think most of that is locked in, but I think Trump and the Republicans risk losing almost everyone else outside that core 30% and that would devastate them if they did.

I think it is clear Trump now accepts he MIGHT lose the next election. Something he never imagined not too long ago. Prior to thinking he could lose he was willing to not risk the backlash of Pardons or Commutations. But now he realizes he might lose I think you will see him move on many more of the pardons. Manafort and Flynn incoming.

Manafort especially I think, right now would have to be incensed if he sees Trump saved Roger Stone for loyalty and yet leaves Manafort to suffer and risk being stuck to serve all his time if Trump loses the election.

Can someone translate this from Trump to English please. Put what in and take what out?

Does he really not know the difference between a bill and an executive order? The reporter asks him which is it, and the question goes totally over his head. I'm so confused.

What is he even trying to do? Reset the race or throw a bone to Google/Apple? I guess there's also a decent chance of his promising and then going 'lol jk' after November if he wins.

Trump does NOT understand the difference between Bills and Executive orders, that is clear.

He thinks the Supreme Court order has clearly empowered him to create Bills and institute them with Executive Orders to get around Congress. He thinks these are NEW powers the SC has clearly given him.

If this was Biden saying this Trumpsters would laugh saying he was stupid and his dementia is showing. Since it is Trump they will spin at Trump somehow being correct or perhaps it is just the rest of us are misunderstanding him and that is our mistake, not Trumps.

Absolutely, racism and sexism are very overrated.

His rallys crashing and burning are more significant than just identifying waning support for the troubled president. Trump fuels his ego and mind with those rallys. He has not had a successfully rally forever. It is breaking down the remnants of mind.

Always funny when Trump lovers attack Biden’s mental competency. Heck it is historical when unbiased centrists do it given how completely vacant Trump is.