Storm coming
I definitely have a different perspective on some things than this author, but it was still an interesting read in the WAAF genre.
I'm not necessarily that concerned with gaming out specific scenarios and trying to figure out what is likely. This was interesting to me though:
Quote:
The key to peaceful transition is that politicians and their supporters must be able to lose an election. Losers and their supporters understand that they may lose on policy issues, but they will have the chance to regroup and try again. They will not lose their jobs or their businesses. They will not be put in jail, dogged with investigations, prosecuted under vague laws, regulated out of business. Their assets will not be confiscated. The machinery of state will not turn on a dime. The losers will retain rights and places to slow down policies that they really disagree with. The winners will push the rules a bit, but winners will not use their hold on power to utterly disenfranchise the losers in the next round.
It is this assurance that allows losers to lose with grace, accept the legitimacy of the winners, and work to improve their (loser's) message or shift their coalition to do better next time. It is this assurance that allows both sides to abide by traditional norms and not fight each battle as if survival depends on it, respecting traditional norms.
Dont' laugh. It's not this way in most of the world, and was not this way through most of history.
Why are our politics so polarized? Because it is more and more dangerous to lose an election. Regulation has supplanted legislation, and dear colleague letters, interpretations, and executive orders have supplanted regulation. More and more politics is fought through the criminal justice system and control of the FBI and congressional investigation apparatus.
The vanishing ability to lose an election and not be crushed is the core reason for increased partisan vitriol and astounding violation of basic norms on both sides of our political divide. Democracy relies on norms more than legal limits. We won't replace a justice within a month of an election, because we trust you won't do it when it's your turn. We won't eliminate the filibuster to cram our agenda through, because we trust you won't do it when it's your turn. And so on.
I think this might have the causality somewhat backwards (although surely there's a vicious circle). The deterioration of shared identity and social solidarity leads to increasing polarization, which in turn leads to people viewing their opponents and their agendas as wholly illegitimate, which is the justification for escalating the winner-takes-all political power moves and the "vanishing ability to lose an election."
I'm sure my perspective is biased and partial, but I feel like my entire adult life I've watched the right ratchet up the rhetoric around the illegitimacy of the political left, often based in various moral causes of importance to religious conservatives. Or I always think of Sarah Palin's "real Americans." Those culture war issues surely contributed to the escalation of norm-breaking by conservatives in congress. We're just now getting to the point where Democrats are thinking seriously about a tit-for-tat strategy.