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Originally Posted by Victor
I am proly misunderstanding how this works. I dont think they will rule on Roe so it wont be overturned. They will rule on this AL law and they will allow it.
ofc it is absurd.
I think you are misunderstanding how this will work. The core holding of Roe is as follows:
1) There is a right to privacy implicit in Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment.
2) Implicit in that right to privacy is the right of a woman to decide whether to have an abortion.
3) The right to privacy is fundamental, but not absolute. It must be balanced against the state's interest in protecting women's health and protecting prenatal life.
4) Applying the balancing test, a state may not limit abortion in the first trimester, a state may impose reasonable regulations related to health in the second semester, and a state may limit abortion entirely in third trimester as long as there is an exception for when the mother's life was at risk.
Among legal scholars, Roe was controversial because 1) and 4) are not obvious from the text of the Constitution, and 4) looked a lot like legislation.
Planned Parenthood v. Casey replaced the trimester framework with a "viability of the fetus" test and reframed the Roe balancing test as a test of whether the state had placed an undue burden on the right to abortion, with undue burden defined as "a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus."
Virtually all Supreme Court decisions on abortion flow directly or indirectly from these decisions.
The AL state effectively is a total ban. I don't see any way for the Court to write an opinion that both (i) upholds the constitutionality of the AL statute; and (ii) confirms the core holdings in Roe (the right to get an abortion is implicit in the right to privacy) and Casey (state cannot impose an undue burden).
The Supreme Court is not immune to intellectual dishonesty, but there is a always at least a superficial veneer of logic, even in the most politicized decisions. I don't see a path for even a superficial veneer of logic. In other words, the decision would expose the Court to widespread ridicule and criticism, much more ridicule and criticism than the Court would have to endure if it flat out rejected the holdings of Roe and Casey.