https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR...egQIARAF&hl=en

Beginning at the 34:40 mark of their latest "The New Abnormal" politics podcast, Rick Wilson and Molly Jong-Fast have an interesting discussion with Sam Wang who runs the Princeton Elections Consortium. (Mr. Wang, who describes himself as a data scientist, gained a bit of notoriety back in 2014 for getting into a bit of a scuffle with Nate Silver - which is alluded to in this discussion.)

Among other topics, Mr. Wang explains how the [baseball] concept of money ball applies to the political world. Interesting discussion.

the libs shoulda canceled this idiot for having hillary at 99%

Others shared that same sentiment. It was a level of inconceivable indoctrinated partisan foolery that probably won't be seen for a while.

Yikes. Rick Wilson is a Trump hating nobody. Why anyone would take anything he says seriously is beyond me.

Not everyone is committed to staying in a right-wing bubble.

Sam Wang is projecting a 52 seat majority for Democrats in the United States senate. (Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.) For the Dems to achieve a 52 seat Senate majority, they'll need to swing a net of five [currently Republican] seats. (Actually, they'll need to swing six seats as it's a virtual certainty Democratic senator Doug Jones of Alabama will go down to defeat.) So the Big Question: Who are the five (or six) most vulnerable [incumbent] Republican senators?

My "guess" (in no particular order) is the following:

(1.) Maine senator Susan Collins.
(2.) Colorado senator Cory Gardner.
(3.) Arizona senator Martha McSally.
(4.) Iowa senator Joni Ernst.
(5.) North Carolina senator Thom Tillis.
(6.) Montana senator Steve Daines.

For 2+2'ers living in these six states, what do your crystal balls predict?

There's a possibility one (of the two) Georgia Republican senators could fall, (i.e. Kelly Loeffler), but I agree with Mr. Wang that the chances of that are remote. Democrats are trying to "gin up" Kentucky insisting that Mitch McConnell could lose to challenger Amy McGrath, but I really doubt that. Mitch doesn't appear that worried. (If his internal polling showed McGrath within striking distance, he would be spending a lot more time back home campaigning.) If McConnell were to lose, that would be a real upset - akin to a political earthquake. (I know some folks who live in Kentucky. My impression is that Kentucky is even redder than deep red Alabama.)

This wasn't talked about during the 15 minute discussion, but I wonder if there are incumbent Democratic senators - other than Doug Jones - who could be in danger of losing to a Republican challenger? (Other than Doug Jones, I haven't seen any polling data indicating a Democratic incumbent who is skating on thin ice.)

Another factor that wasn't discussed is the "Trump millstone" hanging around the necks of each of these Republican candidates. Who knows how many people will go to the polls and vote straight Democrat out of disgust with Trump? (I've read that Joni Ernst is especially unhappy about Trump dragging her down in Iowa.)

It was more just a math error. WI, PA, MI etc are all heavily correlated so any model that treated them as independent will severely discount the chances of an upset.

That's a weird race with the polls all over the place. McConnell's prob crushing by double digits though.

I think the liberal wet dream that's actually got a shot is Graham going down in SC.

Here's the 270 to win Senate map.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

My guess in order of risk of party switching:

Tier 1 Switch (Most likely):

Alabama senator Doug Jones-D
Colorado senator Cory Gardner-R

Tier 2 Switch (Likely)
Arizona senator Martha McSally-R

Tier 3 Switch (Toss-Up; and in order of most likely to switch)
North Carolina senator Thom Tillis-R
Maine senator Susan Collins-R
Iowa senator Joni Ernst-R
Montana senator Steve Daines-R

If you put me on the spot; I'd say that Democrats win Colorado and Arizona Senate seats and lose Alabama. Net +1 for D.

Collins survives; it's Maine, they are weird up there. And the other states' senators likely survive in even a Biden + 5 victory, although North Carolina is the next likely to fall. I don't see Trump losing Iowa or Montana and ticket splitting is pretty rare nowadays.

The scenario where Dems get the majority involve Biden+6 or more and both Tills and Collins fall. Then its 50-50 and Biden's VP is the tie-breaking vote.

The Republicans are gasping for straws after Doug Jones' seat, but I had to guess the next most likely Democrat Senate seat to fall, it would be the Michigan seat where the Republican candidate is a young and attractive African American business man and veteran, John James. He ran in 2018; and lost in the Blue Wave election, but only 52-46 against political veteran Stabenow, which was her closest Senate race ever. He also over performed relative to the 2018 gubernatorial election which was 53-44. This time he's running against a much weaker opponent.

I think you'll likely see joint campaigning with Trump+James in Michigan. Whether virtually or in person depending on Covid. They both mutually need each other to have a chance of winning. Again, unlikely that Trump or James can thread the needle in Michigan, but, if one is pressed for #2 after Doug Jones' seat, here it is.