Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien
In terms of shortages. There are shortages now but very manageable if we spread out our timelines. My argument is that there will not be any more shortages in the construction trade in 2025 and beyond due to interest rates killing all new projects.
Interesting. I'm out of my depth here, but I'm not convinced by this. Big picture, immigration creates more supply AND more demand. More need for houses AND more people to build houses, more need for healthcare AND more people to provide healthcare. So the kind of questions about whether to be pro-immigration or anti-immigration I don't think can be answered by pointing to one side of that and saying "omg we will need more of X". Instead when I think about it I look at stuff like our age-demographic curves and how as Canada ages a strong economy is going to depend on lots of immigration, a concern quite longer term than this very localized price shock from inflation and then the interest rates which are taming inflation.
I don't know if you are right about 2025 or not, I suspect you are exaggerating it somewhat, but I do think we should expect robust construction demand and need for labour in this sector and many others over, say, the next 10 years. We have a LOT of building to do before housing prices come down, and interest rates aren't presumably going to be this high forever. Specifically, if it is the case that high interest rates suppress construction leaving lots of unemployed construction workers, that's a full on recession and presumably at that point gets dealt with by rates edging back down again. Right now things are looking good for a "soft landing" not a "hard landing", but who knows.