2021

You missed something pretty basic. Companies return profits to shareholders. They don't just reinvest. That's the whole point of companies. I wasn't suggesting not building plants and not creating jobs, but public policy should be aimed at returning as much as possible the value of canadian oil to....canadians. Not shareholders. There are of course open questions (like what policies result in maximizing canadian value) but to assume it is automatically that which maximizes shareholder value is on it's face wrong.

Virus slower through summer due to sunlight and heat? Flights open July?

Meanwhile, just because your border is closed doesn't mean you can't walk to America. There is NO WALL people!

Lol at going to the US anytime soon

That Shift horse in the mouth guy has some business perspectives that are kind of interesting and worthy of debate, but when people like that try to delve into how humans behave - that is where it gets to be a total mess. Most humans are complete morons, and that is on full display by how some are still refusing to recognize the world as it is today.

Yeah I get that shift horse looks at everything through a narrow oil industry perspective, and that is actually fine, but just look at some of the recent posts with under over and walking over the border and recognize that that is humanity. Humans are stupid. Really stupid. They will believe and do stupid things.

The USA#1 is currently a cesspool of incompetence, run by a complete moron, and that shows in how they are handling this thing. The simple cases and death totals of US vs Canada on a per capita basis will move further and further apart as more Americans flock to the beaches and malls and church services where God will protect them. Thoughts and prayers.

I am hardly a huge Doug Ford fan, but he would have literally gotten my vote (if I was in his riding) simply by his genuine statement of not wanting Americans to come here. Americans are the zombies in this apocalypse for now, and while that might hurt some industries like oil for the time being, that reality needs to be recognized and understood. Aint nobody walking to the USA#1 in 2020, and hopefully no Americans walk here.

I have tickets to Tucson for early September and just do not see me going.

Air Travel is the one area you can not social distance.

The USA is a total **** show but what baffles me is Trump seems to hold steady at 42%

If I had to guess on International Flights I would say October 1 st though Trudeau will face a ton of pressure from Trump to open the border

Though I do not think this is a possibility

I hope I am wrong and it does open before then for the correct reasons. I will be very, very happy to say I am wrong, and that is even though I am one of the few still in the industry in which this forum is based which has doubled in size so far this year.

As a born and raised Albertan I can say many Albertan's are delushional. Its tough for many provinces to feel sorry for you when

1. Refuse to put in a sales tax system
2. Have the lowest corporate taxes yet cut them more
3. Some of the highest paid public sector employees
4. Some of the highest paid teachers, nurses and doctors
5. Refuse to diversify
6. Two school systems

Sadly Western CDN closed at $2.89 a barrel and that means a world of hurt for Alberta. Sadly many CDN's do not realise the country seems to go as Alberta goes. Every $10 decline in oil is 2 billion from the federal coffers.

Problem was Notley had a ton of good ideas but really was a liberal calling herself a NDP. Her way of spending, spending and spending just do not work either

Well Alberta was completely ****ed when Notley took it over. By all accounts the oil executives were pro-her in the election.

No Province is perfect and you could write a similar list one way or another for any of them. Does BC not have delusional people when they protest pipelines but then ship coal from their coal mines all over the world? Ontario refines Alberta oil and has all types of mines and nuclear plants but hates on Alberta.

Resentful people from other provinces obviously resent Alberta because everyone knows someone who moved to Alberta worked their way up to a consultant on a rig and now makes 350k/year. Card carrying socialist professor's like urke_master especially hate this.

The current price is sad and sucks. But it is the spot price, the majors are insulated enough to withstand this kind of dramatic price drop. After economies open back up whenever that is I don't see a reason why oil won't return to profitable levels. And like I said hopefully there is a huge initive to jump start to economy when this is over.

A swing and miss!

Out of curiosity, have you figured out how an infected american might cross the border yet?

What’s your skin in the game? Collecting a pay check from above of someone who actually owns a business? Pretty sure I learned likely more in 2 years actually owning the business than someone who worked “in” the business for 15 years. Unless you actually love the lifestyle (lol if that’s you) what are you still doing there after 10+ years? That in itself tells me you’re just a pigeon on the ladder and don’t actually understand the bigger picture here.

CNRL cannot survive $18/bbl — they are bleeding away and to even look like they survive they would have to heavily cut capex so much their balls would be neutered. I know this cause my business was b2b and we had contracts with them and knew of their internal costs. Mind you i stopped looking at their balance sheet/giving a **** after I left the industry, but lol @ thinking they could.. doesn’t matter either way. By the way, have you ever thought if there actually was real $ / the future is bright in this space perhaps private equity/money would flow into these businesses and you wouldn’t need to suck the tit of the govt? No O&G business in Alberta will survive long term on <$20 barrel.. they could live for a few years as their assets depreciate and then cash flow runs dry and it’s belly up. The idea that you think they can is cute, truly, so keep collecting that pay check while you can.

Ps- I’m saying this stuff not to pick a fight, but because it’s true. I have no reason to lie about this, I’m the guy who said his business couldn’t operate on super cheap oil. I really don’t care whether you believe it or not it’s just reality and one day when you’re not so narrow minded (if that day ever comes) you’ll appreciate people dropping knowledge on you. Anyway go enjoy those millions of profits at $~20 oil when we get there — according to that thesis these companies should be able to live for decades then given they had so many good decades. Let’s find out.

Prediction: govt of Canada bails out zombie jobs like Shifty86 has, Canada punts on the inevitable transition out of this space because “politics”. The free market would ultimately have squeezed Alberta (for the long term good of Canada) and that’s why they’re coming forward with their hands out to save “jobs” that shouldn’t even exist now. Oh and he keeps misusing the term skin in the game without realizing the irony as all this happens.

If you think Oil & Gas industry is going away your nuts. Will see a lean couple years for sure. WE could totally shut down all resource extraction in Canada and have a minimal impact on climate change. Countries like Russia and the Middle East and Venezuela couldn't give a crap about the environment

Sadly many CDN's do not have a clue how many jobs rely on resources.

Though today I do believe is the first day that tar sands oil fell below $0 a barrel

No question Alberta will have to make some major adjustments and now is defintley a have not province. Not sure if were eligible for equalization payments.

Of course there will be bailouts just like there was for Air Canada and Bombardier that employ a fraction of the workers resources do

You have no idea what I do or type of job I have. I do enjoy what I do, gives me way more time home with my family than anyone I know.

It's not surprising at all that your company failed. Obviously O&G has changed and it's not what it used to be. Any random person can't go make 6 figures with no education anymore and idiots who own companies poorly don't last more than 2 years. But lots of people and companies still make good money.

Weird some random contractor knows all about CNRL's financials.

https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/new...ction-guidance

Increase in Capex and a production cost of 20$ a Barrell for 2020. Obviously due to the current pandemic things will change. But like I said before the majors were doing ok before this.

I am curious what type of job you have and what you do? You do understand why some folks have no sympathy for Alberta?

He most certainly does not have a job that involves knowing how border crossings actually work, nor how humans will actually behave, but it certainly may be one which requires knowing the current price and hoping for a higher price of oil in the future.

Electrical/Instrumentation technician. Last 5 or so years have been on the management/coordinator side of things. I'm not some rig pig that's married to the patch.

Of course I understand why there is no sympathy. I mentioned it in previous posts. But who cares? Who's asking for sympathy?

Alberta is as f'd as possible now. First Kenney then c19, then the collapse of oil. I may have one of the few businesses that will enjoy a surge during the downturn, but beyond maybe a year of that and then it's game over.

One thing I can't reiterate enough is that sales taxes are NOT the answer. They're literally the worst possible tax system out there and I have no clue why anyone advocates for them. The disproportionately shift the tax burden to poor people and small business, while also disincentivizing purchasing. Then for an added bonus they cause even more work and potential financial hardship for small business when it comes to reporting and remittances. And all to keep from taxing the actual people who have the money -- rich people and large corporations. Makes no sense.

I would toss out that lotteries are a more sinister form of (granted, voluntary for most) regressive tax, that also have a "Just Imagine" marketing campaign behind them, but I recognize that many would consider that an odd position for someone who backs several dozen online poker players to suggest.

At least with sales tax people can get some back in tax credits each year, but indeed they are pretty harsh as well.

And you think Rachael Notley was the answer? She just kept putting everything on the Capital One Card. Though I do believe she is better than Kenney.

Ive said it multiple times small steps to fix Alberta

• Bring back Alberta Health Care payments
• Put the carbon tax back better we collect it than Dictator Trudeau
• 5 % Sales tax exempt Home Purchases and what other provinces do
• Cancel Kenney's corporate tax cuts . We already had the lowest no need to go lower
• Require Calgary and Edmonton to get more fiscally responsible and stop funding crap like a Velodrome and better sub division development

That's just a start and it still will not get us out of the hole. I also would consider scrapping pensions for all NEW public sector employees

Notely was the answer, she at least had a plan for how to diversify Alberta's economy more so that it wasn't so O&G dependent. And I was totally fine with running a deficit if it meant more money flowing around the province to keep people's livelihoods in order during the downturn. It's just smart governance to borrow when times are tough and pay it back when they're better, even if it's 50 years from now.

Instead we have Kenney with scorched earth austerity and pandering to oil and gas, and now we're about as screwed as possible. Reminds me of the UK after the 2008 recession. They went on an austerity kick and got nowhere, which led to worse economic conditions than ever and ultimately to them screwing themselves even worse with this idiot Boris Johnson and Brexit. Meanwhile the US pumped stimulus money into their economy and almost fully recovered within a couple of years. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see which method works better.

Pensions make sense if you want to hire quality people. If you are fine with them working elsewhere then yeah, don't offer them.

What plan?

I prefer matching RRSP contributions based on years of service instead of pension liabilities

So many posters are trashing Trump as he has not taken more of a federal role on testing. As much as I agree he has done a horrible job. Do not the provinces here been taking this on pretty much on their own as well. Is Trudeau securing test kits or PPE?

He may be taking a role more quietly and not ask CBC to praise him but also none of our media is questioning him at all. They are quick to grill the RCMP for not putting out an amber alert but not one question on how he handled the pandemic

Think Trump not being more involved in coordinating testing barely makes the top 10 gaffes during this crisis. Can’t think of any reason why the Trudeau govt wouldn’t be actively involved in sourcing testing kits - let’s assume the lack of announcements stems from a lack of success rather than modesty.

As for questioning his actions, don’t fret: Nothing the Canadian “deep state” (for lack of a better term) likes more than a good commission. Every decision will be picked over in committees filled with people making far more than you and I.

Plenty of time for navel-gazing later, at the very least we avoid further politicizing decisions that should be made based on scientific analysis. Looking south of the border, I’m willing to live with that.