Ya political winds can come out of nowhere, but I have trouble believing there is an election in 18 months without some big scandal that brings down the liberals. If I was guessing, I’d predict closer to three years before the libs call it, not the opposition.

I hope u right ….

I don't believe that I predicted this. I simply used the +EV system of identifying what posters like Shifty and Lozen want/predict will happen and then predict/bet on the other side. So when Shifty wants the PPC to be relevant I predicted that they will not be relevant at all, which happened. Similarly when Lozen predicted the Liberals would lose a few seats I predicted they would gain a few seats and maintain a minority government, which also appears to have happened. Next one will be the Senate in the US which Lozen predicts the republicans will control after 2022, so the Democrats should be happy to see that!

I meant montrealcorp

Lol what? I predicted a liberal minority. Congratulations you predicted a 2 year old party that wasn't in the debates would not be relevant, you are a real prophet! They did triple their votes though.

I haven't even seen any good evidence of how many seats would have been won by the CPC were it not for the PPC. Maybe a couple I guess? They mostly remained not relevant. At least the Green party can win a couple seats, although it was a terrible, terrible night for them and one of those seats they just got extremely lucky on.

It's hard to know, I'm sure more will come out about it once everything is finalized. But did the NDP hurt the Liberals chances of a majority more than the PPC hurt the CPC?

Absolutely. On the left we have experienced this for a long time and was what led to a decade of conservative power. The three progressive parties eat each others lunch while the conservatives were homogeneous after Harper (and notably this wasn't true in the 80s/90s). There are a few people who flip between NDP and conservative while skipping the Liberals in the many, but they are quite a small number. For the most part, people that vote NDP would far rather the Liberals in power than the Conservatives.

In some ways it is good the PPC exists for the far right nutjobs in the country. It lets the CPC move to the left without fearing them as much. BUT, it will have the effect of hurting the CPC. So if you were, say, trying to win the leadership of the CPC and then you lost and you were a very sore loser and wanted to revenge hurt the CPC a great thing to do would be to start a new party to siphon votes from the CPC.

You are assuming the PPC is just taking votes away from the CPC. It was talked about on the CBC coverage last night how there is no evidence that shows it's only voters switching from the PPC. If you read r/Canada or r/Canadapolitics you see a lot of post of people who use to vote NDP/liberal or never voted that voted PPC.

That is partly true. Yes, I agree that the PPC is in many ways a protest vote, and because it is so strongly associated to nutjob antivaxxers (who can come from anywhere on the political spectrum) those antivaxxers could vote PPC from all sorts of places. Nevertheless, an inkling of attention to their platform shows they are clearly a far-right party and you should expect that right-wing people will form the base of their support.

Yeah, common sense would say that's where most of their vote comes from, but of course it won't be exclusively Conservative. I imagine they will also attract some disillusioned voters who haven't been voting for anyone previously.

For sure common sense would say that. Bernier was popular in the Conservative party and so were a lot of his ideas while running for leadership. It's funny how until recently anti-vaxxers were usually far left, environmentalist, hippie, naturepath types. Now if you don't like the idea of vaccine passports you are a far-right anti-vaxxer. For what it's worth Bernier said on the Peterson interview he convinced his father to take the vaccine.

It is strange how the PPC was taking votes away from CPC but they've ended up with basically the same results as the last election. Its going to be interesting to see what happens going forward. At some point I think western conservatives are going to get tired of voting for left-leaning platforms and still losing. I think Bernier runs in a riding somewhere in the west next election.

The former definitely still exist. But the latter is certainly a thing now, and it seems to be growing. I can't say for certain that it is, nor provide statistics to back it up; just an observation on my part.

Really nothing strange about this at all. A few points:

1) As things stand right now, the CPC may have "basically" the same results, but it's still a loss of 2 seats. That's not much, but neither is PPC's 5.1% vote share.

2) It's possible for the PPC to take away CPC votes, but for the CPC vote total/seats to grow. The two things aren't mutually exclusive.

3) Related to 1), the PPC could take away votes from the CPC but have no effect on the actual seat total. That might be what happened in this election.

They tried that before (Reform Party), but the only way they came to power was by uniting the parties. I don't think there's enough conservatives in Canada to support two parties in a serious way, and have one of them win a majority. The only way it seems possible is if one of them shifts to the left and brings more people "under their tent". The other viable alternatives is that a new party like the PPC eventually surpasses the CPC and makes them irrelevant (seems unlikely now for the PPC specifically), or the parties form a coalition and/or merge.

That said, politics can be quite cyclical. Absent any of my above alternatives, perhaps the Liberals can piss enough people off that some of them are willing to support the CPC, although I think if the CPC saw that as a possibility they would court that vote with the aforementioned leftward shift, as they tried this election.

If he want to win a seat some time soon, that's probably what he's going to have to do.

It baffles me that the CBC is having a big conversation about OToole's future?

Its valid but the future of Justin Trudeau should be in question
640 Million and no change
Called during a covid out break and Afghanistan

Well the one liberal minister can see if the Taliban have a PR job available

Yes, it's just baffling why there is more conversation about a losing candidate's future being discussed than there is of the winning candidate. I think they call him...Prime Minister?

Truly baffling. I'm sure your feelings about Trudeau aren't clouding your judgement on this.

It does appear that he may not like Trudeau.

Lozen must have one hell of a hangover

A friend just posted this on Facebook; not sure if it's his or if he got it from someone else, but I thought it was amusing:

Is it though? I know a lot of conservatives or "right-wing" pundits are anti vaccine mandates, but I don't think any of them are or ever have been actual anti-vaxxers. Since you didn't provide any statistics I can provide an anecdote. My sister in law is a hardcore anti-vaxxer, always has been. Never vaccinated her kids (3) for anything. She was an avid Trudeau supporter, enough that she would call family members asking them to vote Trudeau the last 2 elections. Yesterday's election she voted PPC. I also know a bunch of people that are very pro-vaccine but anti vaccine passport. We did go from 2 week to flatten the curve to 70% vaccination rates everything will open to only vaccinated people can do fun things pretty quickly. I think it's pretty reasonable to want to be able to have a conversation about where the line is going to be drawn and what's going to happen next while not being labeled a crazy far-right anti-vaxxer.

Interesting.

The few anti-vaxxers I know are all conservative. But that's a handful of people, so not much of a data point. And of course I know lots of conservative people that are vaccinated. My main observation comes from the loud voices we hear all the time, that you mentioned - but I see now that you're separating anti-vaxxers from anti-mandate. Hmm. Yeah, there probably some distinctions I'm not making between anti-vax, anti-mandate, and then anti-max. Lots of overlap, but not everyone in the latter two camps are in the first (anti-vax), I'll give you that.

Ontario says vaccine passports will be a temporary measure. I've seen this show before

the two people in my life who didn't get vaccines on is on the left, one on the right, but neither are really on the spectrum in a meaningful way. Like the right wing person is an alex jones type. The one on the left is a sort of conspiracy corporations trying to control us type of thing. I don't know whether either voted for the PPC (probably neither voted at all).

Don't worry, inflation is just transitory

Don’t worry the government will help u by raising taxes of the rich umm I mean everyone but the rich…