Which Presidents Would Be Different If Only Men or Only Women Voted? - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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Which Presidents Would Be Different If Only Men or Only Women Voted?

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12-23-2023 , 11:55 PM

David Sklansky

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Not asking for a specific reason other than curiosity. Using only the public information (including Electoral College numbers) and assuming each election was independent of previous ones. Maybe that info is already known but I have never seen it.

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12-24-2023 , 12:00 AM

Montrealcorp

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I guess we just need to go past a 100 years and extrapolate from there .

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12-24-2023 , 09:39 AM

ecriture d'adulte

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Without looking, Dems win every election starting in 1992 with women only with the possible exception of 2004. Someone will have to look that one up, probably just need to see if Kerry won Ohio women or not. Men only is trickier. I'm guessing Clinton still wins 92 and 96 because they weren't that close and gender gaps were smaller then. Bush obviously still wins 2000 and 2004. Obama still wins 08 I would guess because it wasn't close. 12 needs to be looked up. Trump obviously still wins 16 and would flip 20.

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12-24-2023 , 11:20 AM

Rococo

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Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte

Without looking, I am going to guess that the gender gap has been more pronounced in the last 30 years than it was in the 70 years before that. What you wrote above sounds pretty close. I think that you probably have to go back to Reagan to find a Republican who would have won if the electorate had been all women.

Kennedy narrowly defeated Nixon. I'm pretty sure that Nixon would have won if only men had voted.

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12-24-2023 , 11:30 AM

Rococo

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I just looked it up the info since 1980. Gender gap has averaged around 8 points and has been highest in the last 3 elections. Also, there are more women than men, and women have higher participation than men.

You would have to look at the data on a state by state level, but that I suspect that means it is likely that the Democrats would have won every election since 1984. Nothing could have saved Mondale in 1984.

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12-24-2023 , 12:03 PM

ecriture d'adulte

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Originally Posted by Rococo

The further you go back the harder it gets....so I'm not even sure women preferred Kennedy to Nixon more than men did.

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12-24-2023 , 12:09 PM

Rococo

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Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte

The further you go back the harder it gets....so I'm not even sure women preferred Kennedy to Nixon more than men did.

According to this source, female voters skewed Republican prior to 1980 (and very slightly preferred Nixon to Kennedy). In other words, if this source is correct, you are correct.

https://www.jofreeman.com/polhistory/gendergap.htm

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12-24-2023 , 12:54 PM

ecriture d'adulte

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Well I had to be right because my only claim claim was I wasn't sure

. I would have guessed women preferred Kennedy though. 1980 was a big inflection point because it was the first time white evangelicals overwhelmingly went R and they've done so ever since. The modern gender gap is largely a response to religious nutters running the conservative movement which people like Goldwater opposed for fear of the conservative movement becoming exactly what it has the W Bush/Trump era.

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12-24-2023 , 01:16 PM

Didace

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The question is unanswerable. If the makeup of the electorate was changed in any significant way the candidates, issues, and campaigns would be much different.

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12-24-2023 , 01:21 PM

#10

muttiah

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Originally Posted by Didace

The question is unanswerable. If the makeup of the electorate was changed in any significant way the candidates, issues, and campaigns would be much different.

You can make assumptions like those variables are fixed. I also don't think campaigns really are gender targeted except maybe abortion issue

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12-24-2023 , 01:22 PM

#11

ecriture d'adulte

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That's not what he's asking. Nobody doubts that it would be impossible to predict what would have happened if only women were allowed to vote from 1960 on.

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12-24-2023 , 01:31 PM

#12

Didace

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Originally Posted by muttiah

You can make assumptions like those variables are fixed. I also don't think campaigns really are gender targeted except maybe abortion issue

You don't think that if only women were allowed to vote the Republican party wouldn't be different?

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12-24-2023 , 01:56 PM

#13

Didace

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Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte

That's not what he's asking.

Then it's a pointless question. He should learn how to use a Google machine.

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12-24-2023 , 02:05 PM

#14

ecriture d'adulte

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It’s quite a bit of work to answer definitively ….all the guesses given are reasonable but based on some hidden assumptions we didn’t bother listing. And data from 40+ years ago will be bad anyway.

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12-25-2023 , 10:11 PM

#15

LirvA

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Hi David Skanskly! Please give my best holiday wishes to Mat for me, cheers!

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12-26-2023 , 01:06 AM

#16

smartDFS

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte

Nonetheless, please use electoral college data by gender and assume each election outcome is independent from one another...

If a rando started this thread it would've received two troll posts and been locked imo

Besides '08, possibly every election going back to '96 could've been flipped if you chose the opposing gender (Men-R, Women-D).

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