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Originally Posted by lagtight
You know your administration is horrible when your Vice-President has a 28% approval rating.
This is silly. True George HW Bush lost his reelection campaign with Dan Qualye as his VP. And Trump lost his with Mike Pence as his. But VP's usually make very little difference in national elections. They are good for helping out in home states and regions. Most VP's didn't do anything for Presidential Administrations. It is only recently that they have started to be central players.
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Other than Herbert Hoover and William Henry Harrison (who passed-away after 30 days in office), what other Presidents in history have even arguably had a worse first ten months in office than Mr. Biden?
First of all this is a meaningless question. The real question is which Presidents faced with challenges handled them worse than Biden? Then the other question that is perhaps more important is which Presidents were less popular than Biden at any time in their administrations?
Looking to fivethirtyeight.com for all polling about Presidents since Truman this is what we have:
- Harry Truman less popular than Biden after a year and a half (due to 2nd World War Issues I would guess) and worse than Biden in his 2nd term for most of it after the first year
- Lyndon Johnson less popular than Biden in his last year in office (which is why he didn't run again)
- Richard Nixon much less popular after 10 months of his 2nd term in office because of Watergate (forcing his resignation)
- Gerald Ford much less popular in his first ten months because of his pardon of Richard Nixon - which caused him to lose to jimmy Carter in 1976
- Ronald Reagan much less popular than Biden at the 2 year mark because of Recession
- George HW Bush much less popular than Biden in his last year of office which is arguably much worse than the first 10 months (see Reagan) due to mild Recession and people reading his lips
- Bill Clinton much less popular than Biden is now, in his first 4 months. Probably mostly due to failure to get his health care bill passed. But start of Whitewater investigation and scandals too
- George W Bush after 10 months into his 2nd term which continued to dive for the rest of his 2nd term. Many things were the cause of this but he was in my mind the worst President in my lifetime at the time for many reasons (lying about Iraq WMD in order to invade Iraq, invading Afghanistan and nation building after saying in a debate with Gore that the only difference between himself and Gore in terms of foreign policy was "Nation Building, he's for it, I'm against it", the complete financial meltdown, failing to get Bin Laden, failing to keep his focus on getting Bin Laden, lying about how his tax cuts were going to raise revenues, etc.)
- Barack Obama 10 months into his 2nd term, also 2 years into his first term (racial backlash? hatred of Obamacare by Republicans? political polarization? the Tea Party?)
- Donald Trump who was less popular than Biden for all ten months into his Presidency. Not sure if Trump accomplished anything in his first 10 months but maybe he had started separating children from parents at the border to intimidate immigration and asylum seekers. Also maybe there were a number of infrastructure weeks in which there was actually no legislation but a lot of photo ops. My favorite part of the ten months was the vote as part of Reconciliation bill to eliminate Obamacare not needing a single Democratic Vote and watching as Collins of ME, Murkowski of AK, and ultimately a thumbs down from McCain of AZ all voted against the bill. Couldn't get it done within his own party. Lets see what Biden can get done with his reconciliation bill.
What has caused Biden's unpopularity? Probably first and foremost his mistake in Afghanistan of leaving too soon and not securing a way out for more people. Possibly lying to the American people about why he did it that way. But in the end it may have saved lives and a ton of money. Staying in Afghanistan longer would have opened the US up to more attacks from Al Qaeda and the Taliban wasn't going to maintain their cease fire for any longer. So yes 13 soldiers died as a result but many fewer soldiers have died in Afghanistan per year under Biden than under Trump, Obama, and Bush. It still isn't clear how many more Afghans would have gotten out or if they are being killed in Afghanistan now. But the whole war was stupid. We should have known after the Russian failure that trying to take over Afghanistan was a fool's errand. When I was growing up when somebody did something to America we retaliated proportionally. Even under Reagan when we lost over 200 troops in a Lebanon bombing we didn't respond immediately or try to occupy Lebanon while pretending to search for the killers. This 20 year war was not proportional. We lost $2 Trillion and 2,500+ US lives. Not counting the tens of thousands of civilian casualties. There was no progress under any President. We might have had a chance without the Iraq invasion but I doubt it.
Then there is Biden's inability to get Mancin and Synema on board with his plan to lift Americans out of poverty, reverse climate change, and support American workers. We will see what he can do there. If he can't get a substantial reconciliation bill then he will not have a shot in 2024. But I think Mancin and Synema know this and may be willing to compromise. And that could be Biden's biggest strength.
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Originally Posted by Original Position
Ah, you mean serving VP; Al Gore then I guess. And before that George HW Bush.
It's reasonable to disagree with lozen's view about whether Kamala is doing a good job as VP or the causes for her unpopularity, but it is important to pick someone who will be a good candidate for the party. The last Democratic VP to not eventually be nominated as a presidential candidate was Alben Barkley under Truman.
This is very important however Biden had put himself in a bind when he said that he would pick a woman as VP.
Because Biden had basically turned around the primaries because of black voters in SC, BLM had come to the fore, and he desperately needed massive turnout to beat Trump I think he was under pressure to pick a black woman as his VP. Kamala Harris was the only one who had any state wide office. He could have picked Stacey Abrams who had lost the Georgia Governor's race by 1% or so (and to this day still hasn't conceded because Kemp was the Secretary of State at the time and in charge of the election count and voter rolls). The mayor of Atlanta was also awesome but again no statewide office.
In many ways Kamala Harris was a similar pick to Obama's choice in the 2008 election. It wasn't going to generate fear among Republicans (and generate opposing votes) that the VP pick would be President after Biden. But it was definitely somebody who would get out the Democratic vote for Black women. Which it did.
In retrospect I think Corey Booker would have been a better choice as VP. But it was too late once Biden committed to a female running mate.
It is too early yet to know what will happen in 2024 (Biden could win a 2nd term) or in 2028 (Kamala Harris's numbers may go up by then). Lets see if she can do anything of importance. I'm guessing she will have a chance.