Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
It also appears that pollsters in general did a poor job. In addition, people like Nate Silver, and there are a bunch of these, now look low notch instead of top notch.
Although I wouldn't do everything the same way as Nate Silver, assuming the remaining races go the way the betting markets (Betfair) think:
Biden: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
Trump: AK, NC
then 538 (or the polls it gives most weight to) will have correctly called 48 out of 50 states (the exceptions being FL and NC) for a 96% record. Yes the polls are off in some places but the criteria on which we have been invited to admire Trafalgar's efforts in 2016 is that they called states correctly, not that they got closest to the actual result.
There are a lot of votes still to be counted in CA and NY but it looks like part of the polling miss is again down to people polling Libertarian and voting Republican.