Polling - Page 11 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

If you're going to say someone is cherry picking it's a good idea to make sure you aren't leaving out a lot of context yourself. Goofy's original post, a portion of which was quoted in the post you quoted, includes all 4 of the states you are saying that he left out:

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Circling back on this now that we have more results in - there's a few states where Trafalgar looks good, a couple where we need a little more info, and a larger list of states where their polling looks quite bad.

Good:

Wisconsin:
RCP: Biden +6.7
Trafalgar: Biden +1
Actual: Biden +1

Florida:
RCP: Biden +1
Trafalgar: Trump +2
Actual: Trump +3

Ohio:
RCP: Trump +1
Trafalgar: Trump +5
Actual: Trump +8

Need more info:

Nevada:
RCP: Biden +2
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Actual: Biden +??

North Carolina:
RCP: Trump +0.2
Trafalgar: Trump +2
Actual: Trump +??

Bad:

Minnesota:
RCP: Biden +4
Trafalgar: Biden +3
Actual: Biden +7

Georgia:
RCP: Trump +1
Trafalgar: Trump +5
Actual: Biden +??

Pennsylvania:
RCP: Biden +1
Trafalgar: Trump +2
Actual: Biden +??

Michigan:
RCP: Biden +4
Trafalgar: Trump +2
Actual: Biden +3

Arizona:
RCP: Biden +1
Trafalgar: Trump +3
Actual: Biden +??

It's not exactly a surprise that in every single instance the Trafalgar polling is biased towards Republicans from the average. Seems like Trafalgar can tell you what the race will look like *if* it's gonna be a good election for the GOP, but they don't seem to be very good at measuring whether it will be.

Anyway, looking forward to the 2024 version of this thread where more fawning RCP articles whitewash all this year's misses away.

On the bright side, their 303-235 prediction was pretty good if you just ignore which names go next to those numbers!

The giveaway that there might have been more than the one post you quoted was where goofy said that post was an update.

Quote

11-15-2020 , 02:22 PM

#252

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

np: the entire thread is now stupider for having read your post, thanks for your contribution

Quote

11-15-2020 , 05:43 PM

#253

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by nucleardonkey

Don't the calculations of sample size suppose spatially homogeneity to a certain degree? Miami is blue but with very localized sharp red peaks. That variation could be missed by insufficiently fine sampling.

There's a big difference between sampling from a uniform distribution and sampling from an al lost uniform distribution with highly localized concentrations of mass.

Hi donkey:

You bring up a valid point. Back in my Census Bureau survey design days, we used "systematic random sampling" to account for this and the variance calculation is a little different.

If you know that in certain areas, such as your Miami example, there are pockets which differ from the overall population, you can go to what is known as stratified random sampling where you sample the different (but smaller) areas at a higher rate and then adjust the weighting to account for this. This has the effect of incrfeasing the overall variance by a little.

Whether any of the pollsters do anything like this I don't know. But I suspect that systematic random sampling is used. Also, definitions and explanations of systematic random sampling and stratified random sampling can be found on the Internet for anyone interested.

Best wishes,
Mason

Quote

11-16-2020 , 03:22 PM

#254

ecriture d'adulte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 5,938

It looks like the only outstanding question is whether Trump will admit defeat before Mason admits Trafalgar did a poor job.

Quote

11-16-2020 , 03:31 PM

#255

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,271

Quote:

Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte

It looks like the only outstanding question is whether Trump will admit defeat before Mason admits Trafalgar did a poor job in 2020.

FYP

Quote

11-23-2020 , 07:58 PM

#256

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,426

How did trafalgar wind up doing here? Did trump win?

Quote

11-24-2020 , 12:32 PM

#257

nucleardonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 1,252

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

So you are saying, yes, the good pollsters do account for this, and, no, it doesn't go very far towards explaining observed failures?

Quote

11-24-2020 , 04:50 PM

#258

Mason Malmuth

Former Top Dog

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 13,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by nucleardonkey

So you are saying, yes, the good pollsters do account for this, and, no, it doesn't go very far towards explaining observed failures?

Hi donkey:

Yes, that's correct. This should be a non-issue.

Best wishes,
Mason

Quote

12-30-2020 , 06:53 PM

#259

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,426

Hey I forgot about this. Was there a resounding trump win as predicted by Trafalgar?

Quote

12-30-2020 , 07:47 PM

#260

ecriture d'adulte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 5,938

It's too early to tell. And if Trump lost it was because of Kanye. Or uh... massive voter fraud. Either way we'll find some fine tuned post selected methodology to say Trfalgar was the best.

Quote

12-01-2022 , 10:58 PM

#261

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,426

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Hi donkey:

Yes, that's correct. This should be a non-issue.

Best wishes,
Mason

How did Trafalgar do in 2022? Did the red wave happen?

Quote

05-10-2024 , 10:59 PM

#262

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,426

How did 2022 wind up anyway? We looking hard at trafalgar as a high quality 2024 pollster

Quote

05-11-2024 , 12:16 AM

#263

d2_e4

certifiable moron

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 12,350

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Hi Everyone:

Years ago, I worked in Statistical Methods Division of The United States Census Bureau doing survey design. I still have my finite sampling theory books. And for those who don't know, designing statistical surveys and polling are the same thing.

Today, there are a lot of questions about whether the polls are any good, and if some are good, which ones are those? Now, that's a question I can't answer since I don't know their methodology, but I can answer some general questions about polling that some of you might have. And I'll check this thread everyday to see if there is anything I can answer.

And for starters, here's the first question I'll answer:

Question: Some polls seem to oversample Democrats, does this mean the result will be inaccurate and give the Democrat a higher number than he deserves.

Answer: As long as the weighting of the Democrats is adjusted for the over sampling, it should have no effect on the estimate. What it will do is create a slightly higher variance to be associated with the estimate. So, when you hear or read that the Democrats (or Republicans) are over sampled, you should ignore it.

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi Mason,

I wasn't aware of this, perhaps you could expound upon the time you have spent working for the census bureau and what you learnt there. Also, is there a book you could recommend about probability and gambling and such? Many thanks.

Best wishes,

d2

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