https://www.usdebtclock.org/
The statistic that stands out from this dashboard is the Debt-to-Gross-Domestic-Product ratio, which currently stands at 120 percent. (This means that for every $100.00 of GDP we are saddled with $120.00 of debt.)
Several years ago, economists Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff wrote a book, (i.e., "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly"),
https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Dif...s%2C229&sr=1-1
in which they noted what tends to happen to countries where the Debt-to-GDP ratio persistently runs at (or over) 100 percent. Reinhardt and Rogoff argue their research shows that nations which borrow and spend more than they make eventually get into serious economic trouble.
That's a major factor Republicans cite in their argument over the debt ceiling standoff. Their argument is that we can't keep "overspending" as (sooner or later) we'll spend ourselves into a financial calamity. Financial history, as noted by Reinhardt and Rogoff, tends to support the Republican position. However, what were Republicans saying while Trump was cutting taxes on the rich and running up more debt than any of the 44 Presidents that preceded him? They were silent ... Now, with a Democrat in the White House, our national debt is suddenly a Big Problem.
If the end result of this debt ceiling impasse is that programs like Social Security, Medicare, VA benefits (and Defense) get cut; those "Trump tax cuts" to the wealthy must also be rolled back. (At a Mar-a-Lago dinner party, immediately after the tax cuts became law, Trump stood up and bragged to his invited guests: "I just made you folks all a lot richer!")
Both sides (Democrats and Republicans) are so dug in that there's a good chance - better than 50-50 - that there will be a default. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House, is between a rock and a hard place. If he agrees to a "clean" debt ceiling increase - with no offsetting spending cuts - he immediately loses his speakership. President Biden and the Democrats are in equally precarious straits. If Bidem agrees to major spending cuts while getting nothing in return, his chances of being reelected President fall to approximately zero. So, both sides may come to the conclusion that it's less of a political gamble to go ahead and default in the hope that the other side will get the majority of the blame from enraged constituents who have just lost their jobs or are not receiving their Social Security benefits if the standoff drags on.
The obvious solution to this impasse is some amount of spending cuts (or decrease in the growth of spending) combined with a rollback of the Trump era tax cuts. Will the two sides be able to reach such an accord? Time will tell. My bet is that there will probably be a default. It may only be a "technical default" lasting only a few days or a week, but I sense that both sides are dug in. It's the political equivalent of the Showdown at the OK Corral.
NOTE: I need the help of an Admin. I don't know how to set up a poll, so I'll list the options here.
Option 1: No, there will not be a default. The parties will reach an agreement at the last minute avoiding a default.
Option 2: Yes, there will be a default, but it will be a short "technical default" lasting only a few days - or a few hours.
Option 3: Yes, there will be a default that drags on longer than a few days - maybe up to a week.
Option 4: Yes, there will be a default that drags on longer than a week resulting in an economic calamity.
