Heh.

I sold Bernie at a good time (maybe, unless he stages some massive comeback), but lost a bit on an alcohol fueled Warren buy for the nomination.

Maybe I'll sit the rest of the evening out.

I definitely mis-timed buying no shares in Bloomberg but I still feel like it was a good purchase. I might have to buy more.

Think it is becoming increasingly clear that the 3 establishment lane candidates (Pete, Bloomberg, Biden) are going to have to consolidate if they want to take Bernie out.

Too late. Bernie will be the Democrat candidate barring a health issue.

betfair exchange offering:
Bernie - 6/1
BBG - 9/1
pete b - 21/1
to be next pres, surely there is value in these odds tightening in the nxt few months, or am i missing something?
Thnx

Biden ?

I view Biden and Bloomberg occupying mostly the same lane except Biden has much better support in southern states. If Biden is fading, are people going to really show up and support Bloomberg after not winning a delegate in the first four states? Bloomberg is just an old man who doesn't know what to spend all his money on.

20/1. Thinking taking him and BBG, if either one are nominated odds should tighten to approx 4/1 vs trump

Political betting off to an absurdly fun start with the iowa chaos, and joe biden flaming out.

For posterity, an update on this:

Liz probably a good buy at $.05. She probably only gets nom in Bernie had to drop out due to health issues

Timex just announced that PokerShares is now offering US election betting

anyone know which countries it's open to? Austria?

Is it crazy to think Pence at 150/1 seems like a good bet? The average 73yo male has a 3% chance of buying the farm this year, and prez is significantly overweight in a high-stress environment. Pence might even fare better in the general (evangelicals?).

(edit: he's 200/1 on bovada)

Can anyone explain to me why Clinton is 36.0 to win the popular vote at Betfair? Seems like laying her would be like buying money.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.170211116

Is this a case of she might be the nominee if Biden is hit by a bus?

There are some (probably highly likely wrong) sources saying that if Joe drops out because of sexual assault allegations the dems might throw the nom at her

From a guy who used his political power to abuse a woman who worked for him to a woman whose husband did the same.

It seems crazy for the dems to do this. Voters have already said they like trump over hillary. At least in 2016 she could run on the Trump is so crazy he will start WW3, he's so racist he will start a race war and whatever other predictions dems were making on why we can't have a president trump. Since none of those things happened and trump has done better than most expected (remember expectations were really low) it seems her secret weapon has been taken away. There were at least 5 dem candidates who ran this time around who would be better than her at getting the independents.

I guess if your choice is bernie, warren or hillary you go hillary, but I think they have to try one of those other candidates.

Hillary is propped up by dumb Trump bettors who have incinerated money on Hillary for the past 3 years on PredictIt (Hillary to run, Hillary to be indicted, Hillary to win the Dem nomination, Hillary to win Iowa, Hillary to be Biden's VP pick), and continue to do so on a very regular basis. It's a bizarre and expensive hobby.

And final update, with everyone having dropped out:

Correct. The safest bet on PredictIt is to max No whenever there is a market about whether HRC or Huma will get indicted.

saw this on the tl today

the hottest market right now is Dem VP

It's probably going to be Kamala

But I wrote a thing about why I'm betting on Val Demings: https://thebulwark.com/newsletter-is...n-val-demings/

well worth the sign up and read.

something i would add: choosing a VP with lower name recognition than Harris could add noise and sizzle to the Biden campaign, which he'll need at some point. a couple of weeks of "who is Val Demings" is a couple of weeks where Biden can run the clock out and let her share the spotlight

biden to win overall and biden to win florida both trading at 62c. feels like an arb opportunity to me b/c florida feels like a checkmate state, but biden can win without it.

like is biden really gonna lose michigan while he ships florida? seems like we should be betting trump in every swing state and biden to win the presidency.

Seeing as it's close to election day, has anyone got any tips for what to bet on?

Been speaking to a guy who said he's betting millions on Trump to win. I thought Biden's chances were pretty strong but now I'm not so sure anymore. He also bet on Trump to win in 2016 and won. This forum has a huge left wing bias so it's hard to get unbiased opinions on Trump and his chances of reelection.