If you believe in using polling data to guide your political betting decisions, then yes on Biden is an easy call. The major public polling-based models (i.e 538 and the Economist) give him around a 90% chance of winning, while the betting sites have him around 60-65%.

Feels like 2016 all over again. Biden is polling not that much different to Clinton in the key swing states like MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ.

This is a good heuristical reason to favor Biden, bettors typically overcorrect to the most recent result.

The biggest difference is that there were a lot more undecided voters in 2016. On Election Day 2016, about 13% of voters were either undecided or voting third party. Today, with more than a week to go, only a little over 6% are undecided or third party.

I wonder how much the polls are under-representing republican voters as well?

Not at all? We have a lot of evidence for the reliability of US presidential polls. I think the general view among pollsters is that in 2016 many polling firms were under counting low education white voters and this led to the inaccurate state polls in some swing states. Most pollsters have adjusted their likely voter screens to account for this.

If anyone had to take a guess what would Biden's price be on election day? -250? -500?

Also semi related to the question above, but do you guys expect the lines to get worse and worse every day until election? Or be pretty stable in the -125 to -200 range as Biden has been for most of the last few months.

what site? seems like predictit is going to be aggressively stupid leading up to election day. don't think biden hits 70c til nums come in. i think betfair tops out a notch above at about -300 to -350.

above is assuming polls are -8 to -9.5

Well I hope you're right.

Has anyone placed any large bets yet? On the presidency or any other things eg. individual states?

I guarantee whoever wins NC will be president.

I have Trump winning Florida, Texas, and Ohio. Biden win it all including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Probably half my poker bankroll because it seems like a pretty good +EV spot given the recency bias going back to 2016 and the dynamics of 2020 being very different from 2016.

So it's either going to be big score or I'll need to grind it back up again. Def taking a shot here.

Seems reasonable. Who do you think wins Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas?

I have $2,550 on Trump losing the popular vote on predict at a price of .32cents.

I think Biden's an absolute lock to win the popular vote (and likewise Trump to lose it). He's well ahead nationally and Dems can always rely on massive numbers of votes in huge city states like California and New York. So that sounds like a good bet.

y do you trust the polls, but not in florida and to a lesser extent texas and ohio (at their respective prices)

the best things in life are free (money)

[QUOTE=vinivici9586;56654436]y do you trust the polls, but not in florida and to a lesser extent texas and ohio (at their respective prices)
I see no evidence of Democrats winning Texas or Ohio. If they do, it's a tsunami of an election, we get a massive stimulus (because D's take the senate) and I'd expect my stocks to rally.

Florida (which only represents 2% of my total wager) is the most likely to go blue out of those and the price I was getting was pretty good. I think there are still a lot of Trumpy aspects down there that unless I see changed, I will keep in the (R) column.

Also, if Biden wins Florida he is a near lock to win the election which is good for me. So it's a bit of a hedge.

[QUOTE=verneer;56654850] ah ok the hedge makes sense. i did that at first...bought GOP in a bunch of states that wasn't the blue wall. bought Biden overall a month later. recently sold GOP action except for Texas and Ohio to buy more Biden

How did you get so much down on this bet on PI?

[QUOTE=vinivici9586;56655177] Yeah - reviewing all my bets, Florida is -EV money wise but emotionally ++EV.

I've lumped on Biden to win Arizona, probably the only bet I'm making. The extent to which Trump tried to sully the name of John McCain won't be an insignificant factor for Arizonians. I'm guessing Jo Jorgenson will do well there, all votes taken away from Trump. I might be totally wrong of course.

The lottery ticket is Biden to win MT at 10 to 1

You can do it, (NM, see edit) $1700 on the "who will win popular vote" market ($850 for Trump NO, $850 for Biden Yes), Another $1700 on the popular vote margin market.

But I don't know when you could have gotten that for .32. Maybe he meant .68, which would be a good price.

Edit: nvm, the market is simply if Trump will win popular vote, so no way to double max. Maybe some tangential market (Presidential winner wins popular vote?), doubling the margin market or multiple accounts.

A better deal is probably Dems by >280 EVs in the EV margin market. .12-13 cents and I think 538 has it at ~21% probability.

I think 538 overestimates extreme outcomes, so I'm not betting it myself. Yet.

Trump odds right now, sunday AM before election day:

Betfair 33c (+203)
FTX 34c (+194)
Pinnacle 34.5 (+190)
catnip 38c (+163)
predictit 39c (+156)

guys, sorry for this kind of noob question, but maybe relevant/useful:

How are sportsbooks/sites going to determine the winner of the election? What exactly is the proposition/information they are waiting for?
What do sites do in the various tricky scenarios, e.g. things not being decided yet on the 3rd due to all the mail-in ballots needing counting,
or if the losing side, potentially including media outlets, doesn't concede?

If I had to guess, the bookies will expire state bets based on who the AP declares to be the winner.

In the case of the Presidential election, if it is close and the AP calls it...they may wait a little while to see if its clear/see if there are lawsuits.

Apparently someone said in a different thread that Bookmaker (one of the largest offshore books) will wait for the inauguration to pay out, which seems a bit insane. President-elect will be known at least a month earlier, in all but the most, most extreme of tight elections where lawsuits are flying and the electoral college is delayed.