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Originally Posted by Inso0
Willd, you misread that entirely. It's only 15 pages long, so it doesn't take long to go through the entire thing.
It's essentially saying that 80% of this overall racial disparity is due to the audit rates within the EITC group, for the TL;DR reasons I went through above. They don't actually know, since again the algorithm is in charge of all this, but they're making educated guesses. They might even be spot-on.
I don't have time to read the OG paper and go through their methodology behind assigning anonymous taxpayers a race based on first/last names.
I won't comment on your assertion about white tax fraud being higher than black tax fraud beyond saying that you're probably correct in terms of raw dollars. "The juice isn't worth the squeeze" is a relevant phrase there.
Unless maybe we put Nancy Pelosi in charge of that task force. Wasn't she the "Every dollar spent on food stamps returns three dollars back to the treasury" lady? She's got that secret strat for the infinite government money hack.
I'm not sure what exactly you think I misread but the paper explicitly states that the majority (80%) of the disparity comes from
within the population who are claiming EITC, specifically the fact that black people claiming EITC are 2.9-4.4 times as likely to be audited as non-black people claiming EITC. The fact that people claiming EITC are more likely to be audited and that those people are more likely to be black, which is the point you appeared to be focusing on in your posts with things like the violent crime analogy, only accounts for 20% of the total disparity.
As for "my assertion" about white tax fraud being higher than black tax fraud (leaving aside that that's a bit of a misrepresentation of what I actually said) my point comes directly from the paper you linked:
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The model targeting the magnitude of underreporting not only collected more revenue than the alternative model, but also audited Black EITC claimants at lower rates than non-Black EITC claimants.
I thought you might have realised that since it's only 15 pages long, so it doesn't take long to go through the entire thing.
The "juice isn't worth the squeeze" point is pretty much the exact argument for why the current method is crap - according to the modelling done in the OG paper the audit system would be more effective at recovering fraudulently claimed money if the algorithm worked in a way that also happened to be less systemically biased against black people.
The paper you linked also points to the $80 billion of new funding for the IRS in the Inflation Reduction Act that is aimed to help them shift the focus away from nickel-and-diming low-income filers to targetting high-income filers and corporations, which is more expensive initially but provides a much higher return. So despite your sarcastic jibes there is already action from the current administration to try to improve the efficiency in recouping fraudulently claimed money, which is also likely to help reduce the current racial disparity in auditing.