German war guilt plus autism is a deadly combo

when the liberal consensus is that Putin is Hitler part 2 then its pretty clear where this thing is going.

when the milquetoast letter from the Progressives that said, "hey lets continue supporting Ukraine with weapons and resources but like, maybe we should try to end this war with some negotiations? please? just try a little bit?" is met with comparisons to Chamerberlain well, its pretty clear where this thing is going.

I don't think there's any serious intention to invade Russia, a country with nukes. I would guess even regime change is a contentious subject among the people who might be able to call those shots given that it's highly possible the successor is worse. I do agree with you though that that letter was absolutely harmless and the opposition to it is troubling.

I don't know that anyone is saying that Putin=Hitler. But you yourself have described Putin as

and

I don't know why you would expect "liberals" to describe Putin in a more measured way than you describe him.

I would describe Obama and Biden the same way and you dont hear me calling for an invasion of the USA. actually...no that I think about it....

I haven't heard any liberals calling for an invasion of Russia. Who are you referring to?

5 more posts comrade look at you post count.

you better stop posting in 4 posts.

The issue is not that. The issue is that something you may see as gaining a quicker peace, often leads to less peace overall.

The thought was that for the sake of peace Putin not be engage when he took Crimea and Chechnya, etc and all it lead to was more war and aggression later.

It is absolutely clear that what Putin does is weigh the short cost of whatever sanctions, etc he is hit with and how long it takes to return to normal versus his Border and resource gains. And to date, he has considered the price, he and Russia has paid as worth the gains.


So now, as Ukraine has key advantage and real chance to take back not just the land Putin invaded in this current conflict but also Crimea and land Putin took prior, you want to give Putin the chance to say 'yes to peace if you just leave me Crimea and these lands in the Donbas and other areas that voted via referendum to be a part of Russia'.

That is nutty. It may lead to short term peace as Putin is eager to stop his ass kicking, but it again tells Putin it is worth it, when he attacks Ukraine again in a few years to take yet another big piece.

So for those interested in REAL peace, the best thing that could happen is that Putin and Russia see the invasion cost them more than they gained. That they lose more territory than they started with. THAT is what makes Russia and Putin not invade the next time and gives everyone real peace.

Unless Putin detonates a nuclear weapon or does something crazy like invade a NATO country, in which case all bets are off, I would bet a lot money that in the next three years:

1) Neither the U.S. president nor any member of U.S. congressional leadership will call for a ground invasion or occupation of Russia.
2) No head of state in Western Europe will call for a ground invasion or occupation of Russia.
3) If Putin loses power, his replacement will not be generally perceived as friendly to the interests of the U.S. or Western Europe.

This one doesn't seem like the safest bet

What makes you think that? Have i missed some call outs for that as that is a bet I think I would take easily and even give odds on.

Unless someone digs up Napolean and brings him back to life or neo-Nazis take over Germany, I don't see how this could possibly happen.

I'm sure there are some folks in Poland and the Baltics that would get raging chubbies at the thought of a full NATO invasion of Russia, but no one is going to call for that.

I'm not saying that it's greater than a 50% chance of it happening, but I definitely wouldn't be taking any large bets against it myself. Governments change and political leaders aren't exactly not prone to making reckless statements.

Western Europe isn't a very precise term. In case it wasn't clear, I was referring to European countries outside of the old Soviet bloc.

I would take the large bets. I think the edge is pretty massive. Probably closer to 99.99% than 50%.

It is possible a singular leader, as Rococo points out, in some ex vassal Russia State might get a bit blood thirsty and say the words while not pushing for any follow through, but if you are talking about any real push, ...ya I am taking that bet all day long and the bigger the money the better.


I agree entirely with Rococo's assessment that unless Russia nukes someone or attacks a Nato country very directly, it is not likely at all. I peg it near zero because it would then be handing Russia a true justification to use nukes.

Ok that's nuts but if I you want to lay me 500:1 I'm game.

its not gonna be a full on invasion right off the bat. it will be some sort of "peacekeeping" mission with the ostensible goal to be to remove Putin and bring him in for war crimes. liberals are absolutely foaming at the mouth for Putin to go the way of Milosevich already. and thats really only gonna happen with some sort of military action. proly starts as a bombing along with arming and supporting opposition elements and then it would grow to boots on the ground.

liberals can plausibly claim they dont support such action right now. but they sure will support it once the media gets done telling them what to believe and why. just look at the rabid support for this war when hardly anybody knew anything about Ukraine a year ago. now we got an entire internet full of Twitter and Reddit reply guys that are ****ing experts.

teeth/nukes (especially) change the game. if they didnt then jong-un&co wouldve been gone ages ago

This entire conversation started because you said that liberals were "foaming at the mouth" to take over Russia. I questioned that statement, because I know a lot of liberals, and not a single one wants to take over Russia.

oh but they do.

Needless to say, my acquaintances would be astonished to learn that you have more insight into their own states of mind than they do.

shocking init

It's pretty clear that Victor believes this because he sees nutty people calling for it on reddit and Twitter.
I've barely ever been to either site, and never for politics.

These opinions are not mainstream among US liberals like he seems to believe.

I believe it bc I watched millions of people go from not knowing a damn thing about Ukraine to falling over themselves to cheer on death and destruction of orcs, risk nuclear war, and ship billions of dollars a week.

as soon as the msm calls for operations in Russia then everyone will be vocally supportive.

You're starting to sound like Kanye when talks about another group of people.