If we're going to jump to conclusions about state actors, then a state actor other than Russia is very unlikely simply due to the substantial Russian naval presence in the Baltic Sea, which has (for obvious reasons) been very active over the last half year.

The Russian Baltic Sea fleet is (for even more obvious reasons) a fleet with substantial capacities for detecting and destroying threats underwater.

and it actually IS a good thing for the US and Ukraine.

So the Russians blew up their own pipeline? What's next the USA actually orchestrated 9/11 ?

Damn this one needs a Poll Russia, USA, Ukraine or faulty welds

I don't think anyone's disputing that they stand to gain something, just that the risk of being discovered having done it wouldn't be worth it.

What repercussions did the USA suffer for conning the world on Iraq and WMD?

This is partly why we can't rule Russia out.

This post, and your post about the quality of pipeline welds, is exactly why I am hesitant to draw any conclusions based on the limited info that is available. I don't know ANYTHING about pipeline welding or the detection capability of Russia's Baltic fleet.

And I'd be surprised if anyone here does (other than you, of course).

There would be considerable potential downside to the current U.S. administration even if the risk of detection were close to zero.

nice thats nice

Well, I'll state that I am not an expert on this issue and that my last post should not be taken to imply that I think it is likely that Russia did this. Some seem to have misread it that way.

I'm just hard pressed to think that any state actor has the balls to try to sneak a sabotage operation under a very active Russian Baltic Fleet in the current geopolitical climate. Since it would also be a pointless operation (Russia isn't winning any popularity contests anytime soon and the pipelines weren't going to open), that makes it a strange scenario.

Pretty massive ones that will continue for decades.

It would be awesome if someone decided to start a non-quiet quitting trend, and he looked like this

This US Navy P-8 subhunter which also has anti submarine weapons including ones that are dropped in the water with tracking technology, was spotted over the pipe line at the same time it was suspected to be damaged. The aircraft was blocked from civilian tracking sties but was found on the ADS-B exchange. All data from was blocked and it was an "n/a" meaning the reg/tail number and other info about it was blocked, including it's flight path directly over the pipes, which is why the path looks like a zig-zag (it didn't fly like that, it was usuing technology to block/hide it's flight path so the ADS-B receivers estimated it's position) therefore it wasn't a training or general surveillance flight.

Coincidence or ?


https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao...amp=1664154207

They fly those things all over the world every day.

No one knows.

Fwiw, my leading candidates :

1. Ukraine
2. Cheneire Energy Inc

Playbig is back! I hope he returns to the riggie thread to update some of his previous views on U.S. domestic politics.

I didn't take it that way. If anything, I thought you were implying that there was a decent chance that this was an accident.

"According to German newspaper Spiegel, citing its sources in the German government, a few weeks ago the U.S. intelligence services had warned Germany about possible attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea." If so, this makes it less likely that the US or Ukraine (since they would be dependent on the US to do it) were involved. No reason for sabotage plans to be given ahead to the victim Still a mystery.

Also read that there is still one Nordstream 2 pipeline left 100% intact, btw. Saboteurs sloppy? another mystery.

In order to reach the Atlantic (via the North Sea), the Russian Baltic fleet needs to transit through the Kattegat and Skagerrak straights. It's a natural - and relatively shallow - choke-point.
IOW, if you want to find and track a Russian ship or sub, this is about the easiest place to do it.
It's fairly unsurprising that a U.S. multi-role (ASW, ASUW, ISR) patrol aircraft would be poking around here - it is one of the most heavily patrolled areas in the world by the US/NATO navies, and has been for many decades, going back to the days of the cold war. Finding that a US Navy patrol aircraft was in the area some time before the act of sabotage just isn't all that compelling

Just wait until you see the passenger manifest on that plane.

Don't see how that would be the case.

Are we sure Blofeld is dead?

I wouldn't have guessed #2, but Carl Icahn does suck.

It seems way too tortuous and difficult to do this. If you aren't a state actor already involved in the conflict. If you aren't russia, ukraine , or lead nato country (germany, usa, uk) imagine the gall it would take to do this.
Multiple detonations miles apart(sure to be detected) on an incredibly topical valuable pipeline that is 300 feet under the ocean in the middle of the baltic sea knowing its being monitored by 5 different countries in engaged in a war. It seems totally insane unless you are nato or russia to do this; the difficulty level jumps to mission impossible tier.
On the other hand if you had the go ahead and resource assistance of nato or russia that's a different matter.