Putin has poisoned lots of people in Europe/Russia over the last 20~ years, mostly people who talk out about him. Some of the people poisoned have survived and some unfortunately has perished.

Navalny is Putin's biggest foe right now probably in Russia, as he has been outing alot of Putin's corruption, is very popular with the younger Russian crowd and has been sent to jail by Putin various times for BS.

A few days ago Alexei Navalny got poisoned, probably somehow related to KGB/Putin as they have done this to others in the past. Navalny started feeling sick mid a flight to Moscow. His flight got diverted and he immediately got sent to the hospital in Omsk.

German officials reached out to Navalny's people who offered to help him, as they are prepared for situations like this. After some drama in the Omsk hospital/KGB, Navalny was released and is now on a flight back to Germany for better medical help.

Now my question is to people who have followed this situation, what do you guys think to come of it?

Assuming Trump is finally out of office in a few months, will this act by Putin be his final straw, and NATO will go beserk against Russia?

What are the odds of Navalny getting through this?

I'd put his odds at slim to none.However it couldn't have been a poisoning because a Russian doctor said there was no traces of poison in his system and if you can't trust a doctor from Putin's Russia then who can ya trust so hey I'm convinced...

NATO isn't going beserk because Putin poisoned a Russian, its a defensive alliance.

Well sorry I just meant a bunch of allies will finally go after Putin/Russia due to all the **** happening in Belarus, Ukraine, Navalny etc?

More magnitsky sanctions and perhaps some military stuff finally too?

Since Trump is in bed with Putin with his finances/Deustche Banke obv wont happen till he is out of office.

This is quite close to my heart, and it makes me very sad. From Anna Politkovskaya to more. I was born in the USSR (or the CCCR, as TD puts it). What ****s me off is that I have immediate family - parents- who consider this normal. "Well, if you go against the 'system', you have an accident". No. That's not how this works, and it's not how it should ****ing work. **** all these people, like my parents, who normalise this.

At least the Magnitsky acts are in place in some places, unfortunately the EU has yet to ratify its own version. I wouldn't expect any military responses, but perhaps diplomatic responses and definitely intelligence responses.

Military responses are a double-edged blade, since they will likely strengthen Putin's internal support and also boost the popularity of ultra-nationalists. Europe has to be ready for for the post-Putin world as well.

Yes it is sad. Wonderful people, wonderful culture, beautiful country and wonderful language. And then we have this absolute ****fest of a regime on top.

In school we always called it the Soviet Union and the abbreviation we learned was CCCP. Then we had nuclear attack drills, so those lessons kinda stuck.

You're Norwegian, right?

I do own 3 pairs of cross-country skis and am convinced I need them.

Finnish, then. Gotcha.

Putin is in the classic Dictator's Dilemma, which is that, as soon as he loses power, he will be prosecuted and lose all his goodies, or else killed. So he'll hang on and he could easily be around for another 20+ years, getting madder and madder all the time.

I agree. I think this is a "problem" with the entire Russian kleptocracy. If they stop stealing, they die.

Putin aside, I'm betting the the UK passing a Magnitsky act has been uncomfortable for this entire culture. Their "get out of jail card" have for a long time been the option to find a somewhat safe harbor in developed countries, and London / UK has been a primary destination. Although recent foreign assassinations have probably also sent the message that this is really not something they should consider as well.

I mean, you're not wrong. I don't think he is a dictator in the sense that Stalin was a dictator. He doesn't really crave any more power or money than he already has, he just wants to keep his ill-gotten gains. If he could just slink off into the sunset, I am sure he would, but that's not an option, so he has to keep the iron grip.

I'm Russian and I can confirm that Russians are generally sneaky, double-dealing, corrupt mofos. It's ingrained in us from birth. The grift is the thing.

So you guys figure nothing drastic will happen from this re punishment to Putin/Russia minus some more Magnitsky sanctions from a few countries?

It looks like Lukashenko is probably is gonna be pushed out in Belarus soon, so thats probably bad for Putin?

I would be surprised if we see very strong reactions. That the Russian regime might now have reached the level where primary opposition figures can be openly assassinated (I say might, as we still need to see where the evidence takes us) is a chilling reminder that any hopes for a peaceful transition to a more sane regime is probably a pipe-dream however. I don't think that lesson will go by unnoticed.

As for Lukashenko, I made this post in another thread:
If he can successfully muster the army and stave off international criticism and reactions as unwarranted, he might cling to power yet. And unfortunately he might have the political ammunition to do just that. It also gives Russia political credence to intervene on his behalf.

The US response (or lack thereof) is key, since in these matters (the matter largely being stashing money somewhere safe) it is still the dollar that speaks.

Ok cool we will see, but I figure nothing will happen till Trump is gone.

Also a good/positive update on Navalny..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN25J0RO

“Navalny will survive poison attack, but be incapacitated for months as a politician,” Bizilj, whose foundation sent the air ambulance that collected Navalny in Russia’s far east, was quoted as saying by the paper.

Thanks for the thread, would not have read about this otherwise

And good point RE: Lukashenko, TD, i hadn't thought about the implications of DHS justifying greater authoritarian crackdowns globally.

Thread is srs bizness but wouldn't be complete without this

AP is now reporting that the Berlin hospital treating Navalny has found signs of poisioning.

https://apnews.com/89051aea9fa1150cd04606ce50167204

This is the key thing I think we westerners are slow to grasp about this situation. This won't be the massive scandal it would be in most other countries simply because plenty of Russians are fine with having a dictator who kills any opponents in power*. Stalin still had a lot of support while he was arbitrarily killing millions. It's a mindset that is pretty hard to understand for us.

(along with the fact he ~completely controls the media etc).

Can't recommend misha Glenny's 6 part podcast about 90s Russia and Putin's rise to power highly enough (free with an audible account) it. https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/Putin-P...74KSEX2GHPFC0B
He's got a new one out too but I haven't got round to listening to it yet]

Boris the Blade aka Boris the Bullet Dodger. As bent as the Soviet sickle and as hard as the hammer that crosses it. Apparently it's impossible to kill the bastard

https://apnews.com/96d8002d210d311fed1d6d4ba2a0534e

"Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned with the same type of Soviet-era nerve agent that British authorities identified in a 2018 attack on a former Russian spy, the German government said Wednesday, citing new test results."

They're not ones for re-inventing the wheel, I'll give them that.

Can someone explain why Putin is so fond of having people poisoned? Surely there are easier ways to kill your political enemies.