I just finished up my fourth shift on the hotline. Things are starting to ramp up as crunch time approaches. I took 17 calls today.

The hotline supervisor sent an email saying they are looking to double the number of volunteers by week's end. They are having an online training session on the 15th and 17th. If anyone is interested, send me a DM. You don't have to live in Florida to volunteer. Do note though that the shifts are 3 hours in length: you can choose 7-10, 10-13, 13-16, 16-19 (Monday - Sunday).

I signed up for a "sign & wave" event this morning from 8-9. Basically a group (there was 17 of us) stands at a busy corner during rush hour holding Biden/Harris signs (and other signs from local elections) and American flags and waving at passing cars. I must admit I was keeping my eyes peeled as here in Florida it seems that every fifth car is a jacked-up pickup truck with blacked out windows. It was an exhilarating feeling joining with like-minded folks in such an important effort.

There was a couple of ladies in their 70s or 80s who gave us the middle finger as they drove by in their luxury sedans. A sheriff drove by in a sheriff car and gave the thumbs down which was out of order. The organizer said she'd be calling the sheriff about it. I have to say there was way more positive reactions than negative though. The Biden/Harris ticket really is the Silent Majority ticket this election season. Oh, during the first two minutes of us standing on the corner a guy about 19 yrs old was in the passenger seat and had his window down all the way... he was leaning his entire body out of the window flicking us off with both middle fingers and almost toppled out of the car onto the busy six-lane road. Wild.

Do events like that do anything to move the needle though?

People are already aware that at least 6 Biden voters exist in their community. It seems like actually talking to people might persuade more people to change their votes / actually vote.

I believe they do. Enthusiasm is contagious.

A random person sees a group of 15-20 people on the side of the rode at 8 AM campaigning for the candidate they'd support... they think to themselves look at those people sacrificing their personal time... the least I can do is get my butt to the polls and vote.

Tens of thousands of Biden/Harris supporters are phone banking every day. I spent 8 hours last month phone banking and have branched out to other campaign activities needed by the Biden/Harris ticket.

I saw a lone guy with a Trump sign in my home state Massachusetts.
One of the most liberal states in the country.
I gave him the obligatory thumbs down as I drove by.
I am not a Sheriff.

FLORIDA BALLOTS CAST
(with 18 days to go)

2020: 2,092,131

2016: 1,101,087

FLORIDA BALLOTS CAST
(By Party Affiliation, with 18 days to go)

2020: 50% Dems, 30% Rs, 20% others

2016: 40% Dems, 43% Rs, 17% others

CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT - from a poll taken in September
(Florida Likely Voters By Voting Method)

Overall: Biden 47%, Trump 51%

Plan to vote early/by mail: Biden 63%, Trump 35%

Election Day: Biden 20%, Trump 76%

Right. A change is as good as a rest

What One Florida County Could Tell Us About a "Gray Revolt" on Election Night

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...ut-gray-revolt

Had another shift today, but only handled 5 calls. There were a ton of volunteers on the system, so I'm guessing the goal of doubling the number of volunteers was achieved. It's great news as callers don't have to wait to get a live person.

No noteworthy calls to report.

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Will flag-waving Latinos win Florida for Trump?

The Cuban American voters of South Florida don’t just support Trump for his anti-socialism. They love his embrace of flags and other symbols of patriotism.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...lection-429973

They changed the length of a shift from three hours to two hours, so I had a two hour shift today. I took a total of six calls. They're doing an excellent job with staffing the lines, thus an individual volunteer doesn't field that many calls.

Early voting started today in many Florida counties. Also, the County SOEs (Supervisor of Elections) are beginning to call voters about rejected ballots (the vast majority because of missing signatures). I had to read and review about 12 pages of a PDF to learn how to handle issues around "curing" ballots (to "cure" a ballot means the voter taking the necessary steps to have their ballot counted).

I had a call from an ex-felon today who didn't realize the Republican-led state legislature had screwed him out of his right to vote:

https://www.politico.com/states/flor...ment-4-1327176

Dude was gutted. I felt so bad for him. I did give him the contact information for the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition so that he could begin the process of getting his voting rights back.

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Democrats brace for Republican 'army' in Florida voting wars

https://www.politico.com/states/flor...g-wars-1327223

It would seem like it makes no difference because most people have already made up their minds. Why would undecided voters change their minds based on just seeing enthusiastic people waving signs?

But there is more going on than meets the eye.

In 1984 I volunteered for the Mondale for president campaign in NYC. I went to their HQ in Manhattan and gave them my phone number and was willing to do anything. They told me they had nothing for me to do at that time but they would call me when they did (they never did call me).

I then went to the NY State Democratic committee 4 blocks away and volunteered there to register voters. I started working there regularly and during the week I would call the Mondale HQ and ask if they had any volunteers to register voters (they typically sent me 2 to 6).

Part of the reason to hold these sign waving events is to lock down the votes of volunteers so they don't get disenchanted. Another part of the reason is to let people know they are not alone in their support of Biden. Depression could lead to not voting.

edit: the other thing that occurs to me is that people in some demographics (like older women) might feel more comfortable committing themselves to vote for Biden if they see other people in their demographic actively campaigning in their community.

I have been calling people for the Biden campaign for the last 3 weeks or so - about an hour a day.

I reach about 70 people a day in whatever background state I am calling (well the computer dialer reaches them and I talk when I get the beep).

At this point these are registered voters.

The majority of the calls (at least two thirds) result in hang-ups, refusals, busy/not available/answering machines the auto-caller missed, wrong numbers, moved, Robo-blockers, hostile responses, and deceased [in pretty much that order].

Of the people I talk to, the vast majority are Biden supporters, and the purpose of the call is to help them with voting info like how to fill out a mail-in ballot without it getting rejected (color of ink, signature on outside of envelope, last day it will be accepted when received, etc.) or where to vote early (surprisingly it is often not at the election day polling location).

I maybe reach one undecided voter in an hour of calls. And more than half the time they don't want to talk to a stranger. Of the rest, some are Trump supporters who are either trolling or just want to waste my time.

In all of the more than 1,000 calls I have made, maybe a handful of undecided voters went to Lean Biden after speaking to me. Perhaps the most persuasive thing I can say to them that they are willing to hear, is often just the joebiden.com web site to check out where Biden stands on the issues...

But there are over 30,000 volunteer callers for Biden now. So maybe we can avert another Florida 2000 situation...

Thx for stepping up Rick. The sign of a real citizen.

Bloomberg knocks Trump back on his heels in Florida

The former New York City mayor’s spending is forcing the president to dig deep in the key swing state and enabling the Biden campaign to spend ad dollars elsewhere.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...pending-430236

I agree. Throw Pete Buttigieg and the rest of the DNC in jail. Straight up stole Iowa.

Did back-to-back shifts today for a total of 4 hours. Took a total of 13 calls.

One caller had just voted in Miami-Dade and said the polling site wasn't following social distancing protocols (he had several examples of how). I wrote the report and submitted it to the shift manager. The shift manager got on the phone to the Dem poll watcher who addressed the situation with the poll site supervisor. It's pretty cool that I can be on a call and elevate an issue to where an on-site poll watcher can take action in nearly real-time.

I had another call which tipped us off to the fact that someone had rerouted a County Dem Party HQ's phone number to another number.

I patched in 3 different callers with their SOEs so that they could request a VBM ballot. One lady's son called in as she sounded like she was in her 90s. She was so softspoken that the SOE volunteer could barely hear her verify her birthday and address. The deadline to request a VBM ballot here in Florida is 10/24.

Did a couple of shifts yesterday but only had 5 calls. They've really ramped up with the recruitment of volunteers. In fact, I was signed up for a session tonight but got an email that they took me off because there are too many people signed up.

Had an interesting call from a Dem poll watcher in Orange County who said the polling clerk was creating a hostile environment. For example, poll watchers are allowed to listen in on conversations between voters and the clerk but this clerk was going to a location where the poll watchers couldn't get to. There were other examples I won't list here.

potus is coming back to Florida this weekend to campaign (and vote). He realizes his house of cards collapses without the Sunshine State.

Was able to finally work another shift today (and have another, and my final, shift tomorrow). There are so many volunteers that you request a shift and have to wait to see if you are picked to work the shift. It was a two-hour shift and I took 4 calls.

I had a voter intimidation call. A guy in his late 40s (white male, beard, tank top and jeans, slightly overweight) was going up to people in line at an early voting site in Orange County asking them if they were voting conservative. He got into an argument with a person holding a 'Biden' sign.

I've been telling a bunch of my Euro friends that Biden sails to the White House in a fair and open election. The disgraceful thing is, the U.S. isn't serious about democracy (never has been) and a fair to semi-fair election isn't in the cards this election. Suffice it to say, Republicans are eager to torch our system in the name of winning this election. It makes you wonder which country is really the sh*thole country.

I did another 'Sign & Wave' event during this AM's rush hour. Damn it feels so good during and after one of these events. We really had some great enthusiam from the majority of passing cars. I only had 4 people flip me the bird this time.

We were there for an hour and about 15 minutes in a jacked up pick-up truck with 5 over-sized "Trump" flags flying drives by. About 10 minutes later they drive by again and turn into the parking lot of the strip center we are at. They end up going to the other entrance of this shopping center and getting out of their truck and waving flags. LOL. It was a cool little rivalry going on.

One of the Biden volunteers brought her young kid along which I thought was great... learning civic engagement at such a young age. That's a good parent right there. Here's a group pic of the crew after the event:



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There are whispers now that GA has a better shot of turning blue than FLA. After living in ATL for 14 years I can believe it. I left ATL in 2012 and returned for the first time in 2017 and couldn't believe the growth in the 5 years I was gone (and obv ATL is already a huge city). Most of these new Atlantans are college-educated... and we know that higher education is kryptonite for the Trump party.

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Cash-strapped Trump campaign shifts resources in Florida as Democrats dominate the airwaves

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/polit...ida/index.html

Good work liga.

thx brother

I haven't been posting about individual polls, but we are so close to election day and this polling service is ranked an "A+" by 538:

Biden: 51%
Trump: 47%

Poll: Biden notches narrow lead in Florida

The Democratic nominee is ahead by single digits in the president’s adopted home state.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...da-lead-433592

Seems we have reached peak poll fluctuation going into these last few days.

What does your gut say, Ligastar? You've had your ear to ground more than most for a long time now.

First off, let me remind people why Florida is so important. Trump is willing to burn down the U.S. to stay in power (and the members of the Trump party are eager to join him in lockstep in this endeavor). He's going to cry fraud with MIBs (mail-in ballots) and try to lean on the courts to steal states in the Midwest. However, if Biden wins Florida, Trump's plan of action doesn't even stand a chance to get off the ground (yes I realize that a Florida projection to Biden on election night won't stop Trump from declaring victory... but Mitch, Cornyn, Lindsey, et. al. will be backed into a corner and will likely have to submit... who knows though with these anti-American clowns). Put it this way... could Trump still win the election without Florida? Anything is possible, right? Could Wisconsin down to their fourth-string QB (because of the White House virus) beat the Steelers this weekend? Anything is possible, right?

Now as I've been preaching from Day 1, if this election were fair to semi-fair Trump doesn't stand a chance (this includes the general election at-large and the Florida election). Cynically, we have to start with the premise that the election won't even be semi-fair.

Let's dive deeper into the Florida election with these caveats out of the way. Florida is going to be razor-thin. I mean razor-thin. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has initiated Operation Slow Down First-Class Mail Delivery in Crucial Democratic Cities:



To summarize for those that don't watch the video, U.S. Postal Service FCM (1st-class mail) is guaranteed to be delivered in one to three business days. Here are the on-time rates currently in key Democratic cities in battleground states:

Philadelphia (PA): 43%
Detroit (MI): 53%
Northern Ohio (Toledo/Cleveland): 56%
South Florida (Miami): 63%

Trump's USPS lackey is systematically disenfranchising tens of thousands of voters (the vast majority Democratic voters) in jurisdictions where the presidency (and Senate) will be decided. MIBs that should be counted will not be counted... the U.S. is far from a democracy. I'm afraid this action alone indicates a loss for Biden in Florida. Relatedly, if the U.S. were a real democracy DeJoy would be tried and sentenced to several years in a federal penitentiary after the election.

Let's turn to the crucial Latinx vote in the state. To Trump's credit it appears that he has actually expanded on his 2016 numbers in some regartds. However, three years ago Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico and some defined Trump's response as lacking empathy:



Over 300,000 Puerto Ricans fled for the U.S. (many to the Orlando area) and thousands have stayed. Esta es una mala noticia para el presidente:



Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll (Oct. 23 - 28)

Cubans: Biden (23%), Trump (71%)
Puerto Ricans: Biden (66%), Trump (23%)

Cliffs: Biden should win Florida in most instances, but the fix is in (USPS, DeSantis, courts, etc.) and Trump could very well steal the state's electoral votes.

Well, it's not without precedence. Florida has a troubled past when it comes properly accounting for votes.

Thanks for the detailed reply, good read. I agree that anyone who purposefully meddles with a democratic election process should face severe punishment.

I visited the Dem Party County HQ this afternoon and asked how I could help (I didn't get picked for my hotline shift today). They have a goal of hanging voter info packets on 6,000 doors before Election Day (these 6,000 people are Ds and NPAs that haven't voted yet). I took 100 addresses and hung 30 today and will finish the rest on Saturday. It's important to finish through the tape!

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Trump’s path begins in Florida

Good evening and hello from the state of election cliffhangers, where on Thursday, in a rare crossing of paths, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will campaign in the same city, Tampa. It’s the heart of the Tampa Bay media market, which forms the westernmost barbell end of the I-4 Corridor, which is geographically and politically in the center of the state (but more on that later).

The dueling visits underscore how the path to the White House runs through the region. Tampa Bay’s mix of urban, suburban, rural, white, Black, Hispanic, working-class and retired voters gives Tampa Bay an Everywhere, USA feel. And its central importance to the swing region of the swing state — one Trump needs to win for a second term — heightens the importance of their visits. Trailing by various margins in most polls of most swing states, Trump is still essentially tied with Biden in Florida.

If the president is going to have another come-from-behind victory, it starts here. And if Biden wants to kill Trump’s chances in one place, Florida is the MAGA horcrux and Tampa is the place to smash it.

Beyond location, the similarities end there for the two contrasting presidential campaigns and candidates. Biden is hosting a drive-in rally to ensure social distancing (his campaign won’t even announce where it’s at yet). Trump is proudly hosting his event in the parking lot of Raymond James Stadium, which as the home of Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fittingly has a pirate ship built in.

There’s an added benefit for Trump: The stadium is a new site for in-person early voting, and the campaign figures he can seriously juice turnout before, during and after his rally. It’s a controversial move that has the Biden campaign privately fuming, because electioneering is prohibited within 150 feet of a polling station, but the rally is technically on the outskirts of the no-electioneering boundary.

The Hillsborough County election supervisor issued a statement warning voters of traffic delays. Trump also plans a rally in South Florida this weekend, and Biden has a Thursday event in Democrat-rich Broward County.

Florida doesn’t so much have Election Day as Election Days. Floridians have three methods of voting: absentee by mail, early in person and on Election Day. Republicans used to dominate absentee voting and Democrats in-person early voting. But during the pandemic Trump demonized the former and Democrats prioritized the latter. So their roles have reversed.

So far in 2020, Democrats have rolled up a huge and historic advantage over Republicans in casting absentee ballots. But once in-person early voting started, Republicans stormed back. As of this morning, the Democrats’ margin remained huge (246,000), but that’s half the size it was eight days ago, according to state data. In all, a record 6.9 million of Florida’s 14.4 million registered voters had already cast ballots as of this morning; 2.6 million are Republicans (38 percent); 2.8 million are Democrats (41 percent) and 1.5 million are independents (21 percent). The ballots are counted by party affiliation, but the votes in them aren’t tabulated. So we don’t know who’s actually winning until Election Day. Polls indicate Biden is ahead among independents, which is usually crucial.

On Election Day morning in 2016, Democrats had cast 90,000 more early and absentee ballots than Republicans. But those were just the raw ballots cast by party. Once the ballots were opened and the votes were tabulated, they showed Hillary Clinton had a huge pre-Election Day lead of 247,000 votes. But then Election Day happened. And Trump won it by even more. At the end of the day and at the end of the election, he carried Florida by fewer than 113,000 votes.

It used to be that whoever won the two media markets of I-4 — Orlando and Tampa Bay — won the state. President Barack Obama disproved that in 2012 when he ran for reelection. He followed a strategy of maximizing votes in the state’s big cities (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville), where high Black, Hispanic and youth turnout helped him carry Florida by less than a point over Mitt Romney, who won the Tampa Bay and Orlando media markets by just a point each.

Four years later, the old rules held: Trump won Tampa Bay by 8 points, and Orlando’s market by 3 points, and he carried the state overall by 1.2 points.

It was only a matter of time before Trump and Biden collided in the same city, so it’s little surprise it’s Tampa. As of this morning, Republicans had cast 39 percent of the early and absentee ballots in the Tampa Bay market and Democrats 40 percent. Which candidate will drive up more turnout? Whoever does could very well win Tampa Bay, win Florida and win the White House.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters...florida-490734

Biden seems to be pulling away a bit in these latest polls. +3 ~ +6.

I really don't want a sweat in FL, too much potential for shenanigans. FL, as you point out, is also the linchpin of Trump's campaign and it all falls apart without it. Take away FL, and you also largely take away the possibility of a contested election, which would be just absolutely terrible for the nation regardless of who you support.

oh ya the Democratic party is def about free and fair and open elections. they would never subvert the will of the people and try to the tip the scales to certain politicians.