I mean there is a lot of room to quibble over the definition of the word "affiliated," but I would guess that is a low number. I would say it is pretty much inevitable in a theocratic totalitarian state like Gaza greater than 10% of pretty much everyone, including aid workers, health care workers, social workers, journalists, etc. is going to be affiliated with Hamas. If they weren't, Hamas wouldn't allow them to operate.

Micro in urban settings the ratios are typically more like 6:1 to 10:1 depending on the conflicts. All this is is dense urban combat. It's not in the forests and trenches around cities like in Ukraine, where the civilian population was largely evacuated no less (and they have shelter infrastructure for civilians who remain, and things like aid raid sirens etc).

If you ponder for a second how challenging it is operationally to even see what you strike accurately in an urban setting, and then layer on the human shield aspect, it's a miracle they can sniff 3:1. US drone strikes they figured they were doing 10:1 in some of those conflicts. In the Chenchen wars which were a very good comparable, 7:1.

The UN published this last year: https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc14904.doc.htm

Ninety Per Cent of War-Time Casualties Are Civilians, Speakers Stress, Pressing Security Council to Fulfil Responsibility, Protect Innocent People in Conflicts

And that's in line with the data the UN on urban combat to (which cites 10:1 as their average).

I don't know how 3:1 is being achieved here, truly. I wish it was less, but I'm still in awe that it's 3:1 (or less).

lol 3:1. bc that would mean damn near every adult male death is Hamas. use some common sense.

why dont you bring up iraq and total civilian deaths during occupation

let me explain to you how iraq worked

"guys there is a sniper in that tower, lets take it out"

"hey command this is guys on the ground, we have an enemy combatant in that tower, permission to call in arty on the tower"

"hey guys this is command, that tower is a minaret and apart of the local mosque. Destroying it would cause a huge uproar within the community, disengage and do not destroy the mosque"

"roger"




now in palestine they are doing this

"hey guys there is an enemy in that tower"

"that tower? ok we are destroying it right now"

Also, we have to keep in mind the adult males do sneak attacks on Israeli forces, and then all run underground to hide in terror tunnels and leave the children and women to face the retribution. Gaza is pretty much the opposite of Ukraine as far as the bravery of the "soldiers."

Im not gonna comment on the bravery, but this is pretty much what seems to be happening. guerilla attacks enrage the Israelis who already view the Gazans as less than human and thus they take it out by murdering women and children and anyone they can see.

these facing retribution dont tend to be resistances fighters bc those are able to disappear underground and necessarily avoid civilians since civilians are the targets of Israeli bombs.

Obviously there are different concepts of bravery for a lot of different contexts. But I dont think men doing sneak attacks and then running away leaving women and children as cover for their escape is considered brave in any context.

Of course real bravery would be accepting that it isn't the 10th century, and Tel Avis isn't Constantinople or Alexandria and the Palestinians aren't going to conquer and raze it in the name of God and set up a Caliphate.

And it is time to do what is best for the people and make peace. But this is clearly a task that Hamas isn't up to, so it is going to take someone else with greater vision and bravery to get the job done. And it is the rest of the world's obligation to push Hamas aside to give them a chance, as the Palestinians have shown themselves incapable.

clearly the men risking their lives and fighting without a military behind them are more brave than those that do have unlimited support


you agree of course?

But they're not fighting a real army.

Regardless, "one of the lowest in war history" is like the most shameless pull something out of one's ass maneuver in history and mets just ate that up.

And of course Victor was absolutely right about the ratio being BS. They are essentially counting all men as combatants and that's ridiculous.

Clearly the men risking their lives to protect their women and children are more brave then the ones whose goal is to intentionally get their women and children killed for PR reasons are more brave.

you agree of course?

Also, Hamas has miltaries behind them. They have the nation of Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis. All with the same mission to destroy Israel. All their allies just decided to nap this one out for the most part.

youre arguing as if the risk is the same. its not. you are calling one side brave because of the risks they take.

palestinians take more risks, by definition, they are more brave. the people that take less risks are less brave


1. : the quality or state of having or showing mental or moral strength to face danger, fear, or difficulty : the quality or state of being brave : courage. showing bravery under fire.

Nailed it

so if we quote the israeli leaders saying this then dude is 100% wrong?

I actually watched the link Schlitz posted to this thread on Iran's descent into theocracy. Kind of depressing to see what Iran (and really the whole Middle East) was less than 40 years ago, and what could have been without the descent into theocratic nihilism.

Also, I think it is a warning for the liberal world to be vigilant against domestic right and left wing extremism; to avoid a similar fate. Most liberals understand the threat from the right, but I think don't appreciate enough the threat from the authoritarian progressive left. That is a different thread for a different day though.

One of the main reasons the Israelis are going into Rafah is Philadelphi. The Philadelphi smuggling route is able to smuggle whole cars through the tunnels. But not just cars, people. Hamas shuttles people through Philadelphi all the time. If you have the means, you can go in and out. And that includes Hamas bringing in fighters (and rockets). That's the route some of the leaderships and hostages may have already left by for example. And they don't know the full capacity, but now they assume the worst based on how little they knew about the other tunnels.

On top of this, intelligence organizations way beyond just Israel have placed that fighting force (Hamas) between 20,000 and 30,000. People like to use the lower one, so fine let's use that. 20,000.

They estimate 4 full battalions in Rafah that were already there, plus the remaining stragglers that made it down (which they expect is probably another 3-4 battalions, but full of injuries). At Hamas battalion strength (and their battalions are way bigger than usual), that's 8,000 men. So if the 20,000 figure is right, and the last 8,000 are waiting in Rafah, then yes, Israel between killed and captured is definitely in the order of magnitude we're discussing (the math adds up completely).

By the way if your math is good, and the intelligence organizations are right and it's closer to 30,000 Hamas fighters, then 3:1 is much too high. It's much lower as that means Hamas massively undercounted their dead.

We can go round and round indefinitely obviously. At the end of the day the Hamas Jihadis on the ground are fundamentalist theocrats, so their moral value system is completely different and very alien to people like us from WEIRD societies, so probably not really relevant what we think.

Suffice to say they believe they are fulfilling a mission from God, and dont really have a choice in the matter. When God told their Prophet, the worlds most perfect man, to kill the Jews for their moral transgressions he did it without question; and Hamas feels it is their obligation to do the same.

interesting. you just reversed your original position

are you aware that jews are gods chosen people and everyone else is not?

You're right, "not a real army" managed to train for years, gather to the door intelligence, break into Israel en masse (which was thought to be impossible), kill over 1,200 people, hold off the IDF somehow for over half a day (in some spots much longer), and then bring back hundreds of people into Gaza.

The infantilization of Hamas as the "poor brown men" with peashooters has to stop. If you told Sinwar to his face that he wasn't leading an army, he'd shoot you in rage (well he'd shoot you anyway since you're a Jew, even though you support him).

Hamas brigades are organized into legit formal military structures. They have established command hierarchies. They're armed with every form of small arms, mortars, explosives, all the way up to anti-tank guided missiles. Alon Kleinman and Adi Eldor just died by anti-tank missile. The guys who killed them had been training for years for this moment.

And even WORSE, they're an army who is not afraid to die, which is a terrifying prospect to face in battle. It's why the Vikings were so hard to defeat. When you genuinely believe that paradise awaits after your sacrifice, you are truly formidable in battle.

I don't love Hamas. But I think I respect them more than you do.

Ironically, a real professional army would be easier to fight in this type of warfare. Because they would have a moral obligation to protect their own civilians, which would be an impediment. Hamas actually uses their own civilians as cover and bullet fodder, making the task of defeating them that much more difficult and deadly.

Hamas has def shown to be a skillful army. And their homemade weaponry is very impressive too.

Israel are taking heavy casualties and dont seem to be learning. Why are they still standing by windows? Why are their snipers so obv?

professional armies are obliterated almost immediately and guerilla warfare is the only way to resist. the DoD has many books on this. You are mistaken if you think Americans would fight any differently. We didn't during our war of independence and we wouldn't now.

because they aren't professional soldiers in the sense that they fight wars. They are occupiers fighting a much smaller and weaker force. They also do not have the same level of war experience as the US. People hate on the US a lot but we have a very well trained military relative to the rest of the world. Israel is using civilians and reservists to swell their ranks; these people are not the savage fighters you need in order to quell a resistance or commit a genocide.

Well I'm glad to see that bolded comment at least. On something, we agree.

The IDF casualty rate has been dropping dramatically on a month by month basis though. At some point the Hamas loses do begin to show up in their ability to inflict damage to the other side.

One bit of intel that has made it all over the country (and the middle east) is that Sinwar wasn't expecting the IDF to be this effective on his turf. I think that's more of an innovation thing. In a few years we'll hear about some of what they managed to use in the tunnels and for the traps. Seems like they largely got near their best case (if you are to believe what's being said).

I still think that's all out the door come Rafah. Apparently they feel they let too many reservists go back home, so they're going to be calling many back up.

So propaganda on both sides wants Hamas fighters to seem formidable/successful.

(not that the fighters themselves are bad and running around and shooting stuff - that's a small part of how armies work)

yes bibi wants to stay in power and stay out of jail. palestinian dude wants to stay in power and not be killed.