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Israel/Palestine thread Israel/Palestine thread

05-13-2024 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PointlessWords
this post is racist. How do I discuss this with the thread without getting a timeout?

Its racist for the brown people to be terrorists but the white people killing more people in worse ways are not held to the same standard.

for the ignorant

Its racist for the indigenous people to be terrorists but the colonizers killing more people in worse ways are not held to the same standard
I have to think Hamas being an internationally recognized terrorist organization isn't too contentious. A coalition of 35 countries in just the Americas, call them terrorists. In Europe you have ample countries doing the same. Also Japan, Australia, etc

I'm not really being outrageous with this one.
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05-13-2024 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossnerd
PW, you are allowed to argue that the terrorist designation is racist, while we remember that Rafiki did not coin that term.
ok but why is he using it? he did use the word, and type it out, unless someone else did that for him
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05-13-2024 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I have to think Hamas being an internationally recognized terrorist organization isn't too contentious. A coalition of 35 countries in just the Americas, call them terrorists. In Europe you have ample countries doing the same. Also Japan, Australia, etc

I'm not really being outrageous with this one.
only if you do the same for israel.

if you dont, well, thats racism. and thats exactly what I asked about

if it is determined that rafiki is being racist by calling Palestinians terrorists but refusing to call Israelis terrorists, what happens?
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05-13-2024 , 11:36 AM
I think we have to be ok with the idea that an internationally recognized terrorist organization just got caught inflating women/children death toll figures by nearly 50%, as discussed by the UN.

This allows for the other side of the coin, which are things like accusations of war crimes against a UN member country like Israel (with the same sort of data driven evidence based approaches).



These forms of discussion are the same. We have to be comfortable with both. And I think that's where we are getting to.
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05-13-2024 , 11:37 AM
PW, I'm not here to moderate whether a poster is racist- I'm here to moderate whether they make racist posts. Hamas being designated a terrorist organization is a mainstream idea. If you want to argue why that designation is racist from a societal point of view, you are free to do so, as well as argue that the Israeli government has also earned that designation. But I will not be moderating thought crimes.

This thread isn't meant to debate the character of other posters; its to debate the current events and how they affect our world.

If you have questions, such as the ones you've been posting here in the thread, I will try to answer them to the best of my ability, but I'd like to ask you again to please utilize private messages so as not to derail this thread. Thank you.
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05-13-2024 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
ok my food isn't going to burn, I can type something up.

I believe Israel has essentially lost the first phase of this war. Not in the way Victor would think though. If you want to measure damage done to the enemy, the IDF outperformed everyone's wildest expectations. They destroyed 18 Hamas battalions (leaving maybe 6), and lost in the low hundreds doing so. Everyone figured it would take thousands of IDF dead to achieve that goal. The problem is that destroying 18 Hamas battalions isn't winning the war.

As of right now, Sinwar is said to believe he's won. That's coming right from people who spend time with him. And this is because of the massive swing in global public opinion (on the conflict) that swung the hardest when the 7 aid workers were killed. The threats the USA made at that point were ones Bibi couldn't come back from. As miserably as he performed before Oct 7, he's truly been awful since.

While Israel fought a first level thinking military campaign, they completely lost the bigger picture war. The media and diplomatic war, the responsibility to provide better aid, taking even more extreme steps to save lives (to be clear no other country does, but they have no choice). And it's put them right here today in a position where they have very little leverage.

Hamas has all the hostage leverage. That's in part due to the way the hostage families have behaved (which is entirely understandable), but also Israel's "allies". Obviously the election year aspect has been extremely difficult, and if Sinwar timed it with that, he's even more brilliant than people think. The Israeli hostage negotiation team today was sent with the orders to concede to far greater demands. So we could actually see a very lopsided deal soon enough.

So what's next? An election in Israel before the Fall is almost assured. But I also think Israel is going to make a very big bet on Trump. Unlike PointlessWords, I do know my regional history. When the Brits left in May of 1948, that was the countdown down to the invasion by Egypt and the others. I think similarly we can see one of a few scenarios.

1) Israel helps massively with aid (it's already happening as of today), and takes the full 3 months it takes to get everyone out of Rafah (it's said to take 2 months very minimum, so 3-4 seems more realistic. That's July-August timeframe. Then they take the pulse of the USA, the election, and maybe they hit Rafah then.

or

2) They bet it all on Trump. Once he's won, they run the campaign that want to run, which would be part 2 of the war. By then Bibi is definitely gone. I can't say what the campaign looks like without knowing who wins the election.


I think that will take us through the Summer. Hezbollah will probably be the ones who decide what happens to the North. So I won't try to guess timing there.
.
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05-13-2024 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I think we have to be ok with the idea that an internationally recognized terrorist organization just got caught inflating women/children death toll figures by nearly 50%, as discussed by the UN.

This allows for the other side of the coin, which are things like accusations of war crimes against a UN member country like Israel (with the same sort of data driven evidence based approaches).



These forms of discussion are the same. We have to be comfortable with both. And I think that's where we are getting to.
bolded is quite simply a lie.
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05-13-2024 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossnerd

This thread isn't meant to debate the character of other posters; its to debate the current events and how they affect our world.
It will be interesting to see the discussion in that context. I applaud you for giving this an honest go. I hope the thread participants try to stick to it.
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05-13-2024 , 11:46 AM
its absolutely impossible to adhere to when the same lies get posted for pages on end.
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05-13-2024 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
bolded is quite simply a lie.
Also, while we're here, lets all consider instead of saying something is "a lie" or someone is "lying", try to extend good faith in our arguments and use words like "not true" or "inaccurate" that don't have accusatory undertones regarding each others intentions. This will lead to better conversations between opposing sides. This is just a suggestion, not a hard and fast rule. Thanks
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05-13-2024 , 11:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
.
It certainly seems like the #2 in the 1 or 2. I think they want to take their chances with Donald.
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05-13-2024 , 11:48 AM
Children will be dying in Gaza because of the massive destruction of homes and infrastructure and even directly from unexploded ordinance for at least a generation.
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05-13-2024 , 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
its absolutely impossible to adhere to when the same lies get posted for pages on end.
It's like your rape "mistruths" Victor. I must simply accept them as your opinion (and actually I do now, I don't mind them). You can have those opinions on rape in this conflict. They're minority opinions (in direct contradiction with the UN), but opinions nevertheless.

I didn't have time to watch the documentary yet btw. Soon I hope.
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05-13-2024 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossnerd
Also, while we're here, lets all consider instead of saying something is "a lie" or someone is "lying", try to extend good faith in our arguments and use words like "not true" or "inaccurate" that don't have accusatory undertones regarding each others intentions. This will lead to better conversations between opposing sides. This is just a suggestion, not a hard and fast rule. Thanks
I mean, when he has posted the same thing multiple times and I calmly pointed out that what he was describing was not accurate, even from his sources. at this point, what else can you say?
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05-13-2024 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
It's like your rape "mistruths" Victor. I must simply accept them as your opinion (and actually I do now, I don't mind them).. You can have those opinions on rape in this conflict. They're minority opinions, but opinions nevertheless.

I didn't have time to watch the documentary yet btw. Soon I hope.
the difference is that the UN guy is not saying what you are claiming. its really that simply. and it has been pointed out multiple times.
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05-13-2024 , 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
the difference is that the UN guy is not saying what you are claiming. its really that simply. and it has been pointed out multiple times.
Let's chalk it up to the "fog of war" or "fog of posting" and carry on, shall we?
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05-13-2024 , 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
I mean, when he has posted the same thing multiple times and I calmly pointed out that what he was describing was not accurate. at this point, what else can you say?
Speak to the audience and convince listeners with facts and sources. There's no real winning between two individuals. If you remember this is a forum and not a battle of wits with a winner or loser, it will be easier to look past disagreements that go nowhere.
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05-13-2024 , 11:52 AM
UN guy: we are only counting numbers that we can "absolutely confirm". these are the lowest end of the spectrum possible. like in any conflict we will not know the true numbers until it is over.
rafki: see!?!? see!?!? that proves Hamas is lying!
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05-13-2024 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
UN guy: we are only counting numbers that we can "absolutely confirm". these are the lowest end of the spectrum possible. like in any conflict we will not know the true numbers until it is over.
rafki: see!?!? see!?!? that proves Hamas is lying!
Actually confirming the dead before reporting on the dead, is an excellent way to conduct journalism and stats. The night of the "hospital" raid (the parking lot one) was an example of what we could stand to gain from these standards.

If we all did this, we might never use "genocide" in spots where perhaps it does not apply. Know what I mean?

Far fewer women and children have died. Let's just take the good news where we can find it in this conflict.
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05-13-2024 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Actually confirming the dead before reporting on the dead, is an excellent way to conduct journalism and stats.

If we all did this, we might never use "genocide" in spots where perhaps it does not apply. Know what I mean?
the Gazans have confirmed those numbers.
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05-13-2024 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Far fewer women and children have died.
can you confirm this?
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05-13-2024 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
One of the stats studies that set this all in motion came from:

https://fathomjournal.org/statistica...ualty-figures/


One of the really obvious other studies showed that the deaths being reported never really lined up with military operations. The graphs could never make sense with the reality in the field. All this is now culminating in the UN realizing the extent they've been mislead. Of course, quiet quiet on that front.
Neither of these things really do anything at all to arrive at a count of the number of people killed.
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05-13-2024 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
UN guy: we are only counting numbers that we can "absolutely confirm". these are the lowest end of the spectrum possible. like in any conflict we will not know the true numbers until it is over.
rafki: see!?!? see!?!? that proves Hamas is lying!
Ehm where are you on the "gaza residents who would have died anyway" thing?

2m people, 7.5 months since 10 7, baseline mortality (all causes) would be around 10-12k (because extremely young population) , maybe a tad more.

You sure the very sick person who dies, or the unfortunate one, isn't chalked up as a war casualty? how, why? people die every day normally, that has to be accounted for right?
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05-13-2024 , 12:01 PM
like, can you go into the Health Ministry names of those who are listed as dead and confirm they are still alive? can the UN or anyone?
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05-13-2024 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
can you confirm this?
The UN has literally just done this for us. We can only rely on the best impartial data we have.
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