Israel/Palestine thread - Page 1377 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

they are still launching hundreds of rockets and just yesterday targeted an air force base.

but they dont want all out war and so long as Nazrallah and the old guys are in charge they wont bite. they think that a long term war of attrition where they just continue to exist and harass Israeli is the best path to decolonialization. they dont give a **** about what Western pundits think of their capabilities or strategy.

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Today , 06:52 PM

#34402

Victor

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And just now it looks like they are hitting another air force base.

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Today , 07:08 PM

#34403

5 south

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Originally Posted by Victor

Yeah, agree with this. Don't play to your enemy's strengths.

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Today , 07:43 PM

#34404

Bluegrassplayer

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Originally Posted by 5 south

I think he absolutely wants them to invade. Israel probably wants them to fire as many rockets as they can at them so they can start carpet bombing Lebanon before sending any significant boots on the ground. Hezbollah probably just continue to take some shots here and there but try to walk the line not giving Israel justification to Gaza the place. Plus Hezbollah is for sure weakened/disabled at the moment.

Yep this is where the conflict is at currently. Hezbollah has taken a major reputation blow in Lebanon due to the extremely embarrassing pager and walkie-talkie attacks followed by this. If Hezbollah responds in a manner which justifies Israel carpet bombing then Israel wins. If Hezbollah just takes the targeted strikes and only gives some small retaliations then Israel wins. Currently win/win for Israel and invading changes that.

Still a chance of a ground invasion, but I think it would be a major mistake still. Israel should be content to do this for a long time.

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Today , 08:17 PM

#34405

Victor

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Israel has declared that victory is returning the settlers to the north. so until that happens, its not a win for Israel. Hezbollah doesnt give a **** about their reputation with Western pundits, esp those who have been gushing over the terrorist attacks by Israel. they care about their reputation within Lebanon and in the Resistance where they have only gained favor in the last 40 years.

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Today , 08:22 PM

#34406

Bluegrassplayer

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Yep, that is why their reputation within Lebanon was mentioned, and not their reputation with Western pundits.

The longer Hezbollah hides as Israel bombs them, the more a reputation blow they will take within Lebanon which is a loss. If Hezbollah strikes back in a manner that prompts Israel to up the bombing then Hezbollah loses. As much as Israel wants to return the northern area, they are more than content to bomb Hezbollah for as long as it makes sense; they're in no real rush.

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Today , 08:31 PM

#34407

Bluegrassplayer

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Today , 08:38 PM

#34408

Trolly McTrollson

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

If Hezbollah strikes back in a manner that prompts Israel to up the bombing then Hezbollah loses.

You say that as if Israel isn't going to up the bombing anyway.

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Today , 09:10 PM

#34409

72off

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well they're too cowardly and incompetent to invade, and usa#1 will supply them with unlimited missiles indefinitely, so yeah the carpet-bombings of apartment buildings will continue until morale improves. it's a bold strategy, cotton

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Today , 09:11 PM

#34410

Trolly McTrollson

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Originally Posted by 72off

well they're too cowardly and incompetent to invade

When has incompetence ever stopped an invasion?

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Today , 09:25 PM

#34411

checkraisdraw

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Originally Posted by 72off

do you ever get tired of siding with the people that want to see the middle east burn because they hate Jews? (referring to Hezbollah) I guess you don’t have to live with the consequences of them trashing their own state out of spite and hatred.

edit: to be clear because I know someone is going to misinterpret, I’m not saying anti-Zionism is anti-Judaism, I’m saying that anti-Israel jihadists hate jews.

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Today , 09:28 PM

#34412

72off

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

When has incompetence ever stopped an invasion?

touché

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Today , 09:30 PM

#34413

chezlaw

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

I'm not sure that true for netanyahu. He will come under huge pressure if he waits it our while not achieving his self declared war aim of Israelis going back home

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Today , 09:31 PM

#34414

Bluegrassplayer

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

You say that as if Israel isn't going to up the bombing anyway.

Massively up the bombing, like what we're seeing in Gaza.

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Today , 09:32 PM

#34415

Bluegrassplayer

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Originally Posted by chezlaw

I'm not sure that true for netanyahu. He will come under huge pressure if he waits it our while not achieving his self declared war aim of Israelis going back home

Netanyahu benefits massively from drawing things out. If he can draw things out while showing progress then all the better for him.

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Today , 09:36 PM

#34416

Victor

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Originally Posted by checkraisdraw

this is funny bc if you ever read or listen to a summary of a Nasrallah speech, of which there are plenty, he never makes mention of "Jews" and doesnt even rip on Israel that much. however, he almost never wastes an opportunity to maintain that the real enemy is the USA.

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Today , 09:40 PM

#34417

Trolly McTrollson

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Massively up the bombing, like what we're seeing in Gaza.

Yeah, that's going to happen more or less regardless of what Hezbollah does next.

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Today , 09:41 PM

#34418

chezlaw

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Netanyahu benefits massively from drawing things out. If he can draw things out while showing progress then all the better for him.

Maybe but I doubt it. It can't become steady or 'normal' as the politcal pressure will have space to dominate.

I'll agree your point on hezbullah if he can escalate elsewhere. But he needs something.

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Today , 09:44 PM

#34419

72off

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Originally Posted by chezlaw

I'm not sure that true for netanyahu. He will come under huge pressure if he waits it our while not achieving his self declared war aim of Israelis going back home

right, just like how he came under huge pressure after not achieving his self-declared war aims of defeating hamas and freeing the hostages in gaza. oh, wait...

turns out no one there really cares about stuff like that as long as they're assured that brown kids and being exploded somewhere

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Today , 09:45 PM

#34420

Bluegrassplayer

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Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Yeah, that's going to happen more or less regardless of what Hezbollah does next.

I don't think so, but we will see.

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Originally Posted by chezlaw

We might be thinking of drastically different timeframes. I'm not suggesting he will drag it out for years or anything. As long as he's hitting targets in Lebanon he is likely to continue though. If Israel goes for a buffer zone in Lebanon then that will take a good amount of time too.

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Today , 09:50 PM

#34421

chezlaw

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 72off

It's why it was always likely he would escalate elsewhere and he has.

It's also probably while he declared his war aim of returning israelis to their homes. It's polical pressure.

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Today , 09:55 PM

#34422

chezlaw

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

Okay we might be. He has months of dragging it out before it becomes steady/normal.

There's also the usa election timetable. I'll still be suprised if he doesn't force if before the election. My best guess is first few weeks of october.

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