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05-31-2019 , 11:01 PM

#101

NhlNut

KANGZ

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 18,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

Point taken. However, here's the reality. it 100% will fail. 20 GOP Senators will not break rank and vote to convict. Trump will portray this to his base as his greatest victory.

The question that has to be answered is - will impeachment proceedings stimulate additional voters in States trump won in 2016 to come out in sufficient numbers to flip 3 or 4 of those states blue? I don't think it gets enough voters who voted for him in 2016 to vote against him in 2020. he support may have a low ceiling, but it has a high and almost untouchable floor.

Remember, getting more voters in blue states who stayed home in 2016 to come out and vote is irrelevant. he lost those states in 2016, he'll lose them with or without additional turnout there in 2020.

I don't think impeachment changes the demographics in the 2016 red states.

Quote

06-01-2019 , 12:43 AM

#102

Regret$

burnt out

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 12,124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slighted

they didn't lay out defenses in the right wing talking points memo he got those points from.

Please tell me how good Clinton's campaign was run. She lost to a talk show host.

Quote

06-01-2019 , 02:24 AM

#103

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 24,050

Its fair criticism. I think the Dems really believed there was no way they could lose to Trump, and just ****ing mailed it in. Still, I remember sitting in class watching on this guys laptop and watching the numbers come in utter disbelief. All of us were, and its a deep Red state.

Quote

06-01-2019 , 09:49 AM

#104

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,304

Quote:

Originally Posted by NhlNut

I'd like to see their methodology. I'd also like to see a similar analysis from a source that's not a far left think tank.

For example, see if The Cato Institute has a similar study and pick a spot midrange between the two.

Quote

06-01-2019 , 10:44 AM

#105

stuff they say

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 93

Quote:

Originally Posted by Regret$

Probably Gucifer is Russian intelligence but still there is no real proof of desired effect to influence one way or another.

this is false.

mueller report pg 1

Quote:

As set forth in detail in this report, the Special Counsel's investigation established that Russia interfere~ in the 2016 presidential election principally through two operations. First, a Russian entity carried out a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

pg 4

Quote:

The campaign evolved from a generalized program designed in 2014 and 2015 to undermine the U.S. electoral system, to a targeted operation that by early 2016 favored candidate Trump and disparaged candidate Clinton.

pg 7-8

Quote:

On January 6, 2017, members of the intelligence community briefed President-Elect Trump on a joint assessment-drafted and coordinated among the Central Intelligence Agency, FBI, National Security Agency-that concluded with high confidence that Russia had intervened in the election through a variety of means to assist Trump's candidacy and harm Clinton's.

pg 14

Quote:

IRA employees posted derogatory information about a number of candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. By early to mid-2016, IRA operations included supporting the Trump Campaign and disparaging candidate Hillary Clinton.

pg 23

Quote:

By February 2016, internal IRA documents referred to support for the Trump Campaign and opposition to candidate Clinton. For example, [redacted] directions to IRA operators [redacted] "Main idea: Use any opportunity to criticize Hillary [Clinton] and the rest (except Sanders and Trump - we support them).

pg 23-24

Quote:

The focus on the U.S. presidential campaign continued throughout 2016. In [redacted] 2016 internal [redacted] reviewing the IRA-controlled Facebook group "Secured Borders," the author criticized the "lower number of posts dedicated to criticizing Hillary Clinton" and reminded the Facebook specialist " it is imperative to intensify criticizing Hillary Clinton."

pg 25

Quote:

Throughout 2016, IRA accounts published an increasing number of materials supporting the Trump Campaign and opposing the Clinton Campaign.

pg 25

Quote:

During the U.S. presidential campaign, many IRA-purchased advertisements explicitly supported or opposed a presidential candidate or promoted U.S. rallies organized by the IRA ( discussed below). As early as March 2016, the IRA purchased advertisements that overtly opposed the Clinton Campaign. For example, on March 18, 2016, the IRA purchased an
advertisement depicting candidate Clinton and a caption that read in part, "If one day God lets this liar enter the White House as a president - that day would be a real national tragedy." Similarly, on April 6, 2016, the IRA purchased advertisements for its account "Black Matters" calling for a "flashmob" of U.S. persons to "take a photo with #HillaryClintonForPrison2016 or #nohillary2016."

IRA-purchased advertisements featuring Clinton were, with very few
exceptions, negative. IRA-purchased advertisements referencing candidate Trump largely supported his campaign. The first known IRA advertisement explicitly endorsing the Trump Campaign was purchased on April 19, 2016. The IRA bought an advertisement for its Instagram account "Tea Party News" asking U.S. persons to help them "make a patriotic team of young Trump supporters" by uploading photos with the hashtag "#KIDS4TRUMP."60 In subsequent months, the IRA purchased dozens of advertisements supporting the Trump Campaign, predominantly through the Facebook groups "Being Patriotic," "Stop All Invaders," and "Secured Borders."