The Great Divide. Should Trump Lose the GOP will fall and the Dem party will split!
Yup, I am putting on my great big prognostication hat and making a big bet. You can decide whether this is simply Fan Fiction or Nostradamus like prognostication.
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Part 1: The Fall of the GOP...
First premise is that the GOP cannot survive with a Trump fall.
If Trump falls, we will see many incumbent, including many stalwarts, Republicans also fall leaving the party in shambles and largely directionless. (THIS IS MARKER ONE YOU SHOULD WATCH FOR TO SEE IF MY THESIS IS PROVING CORRECT).
The rump of the Republican party remaining will at first try to stay on the Trump messaging looking for a new leader, but with the best being Matt Gaetz or Jim Jordan types who simply cannot carry that Trump water, the party looks back to its Tea Party stage and tries to shift 'back' to being the party of 'smaller govt, no deficits, etc'. This also gains no real traction as citizens either see the BS, knowing that was never a true position or they still like the Trump model of endless spending.
So now with the Republican party flailing and just a rump, the party starts to become irrelevant.
Part 2: The Great Compromise...
With the Dem's having control over all the levers of Power, The House, The Senate and the Presidency, in a way that they can bully any legislation through, the Progressives of the party will become enraged that the Biden Admin is not pushing any real change or reform in the system.
Biden is a Politician who took great pride in his long career as being a guy who could gain Bipartisan Support, for much of his agenda, but any deep dive into WHY shows it is almost exclusively because he compromised Dem positions and adopted a more Republican slant to gain that support.
Biden will continue this path trumpeting legislative, bipartisan wins, with the rump of the Republican party, enraging Progressives, who are all but ignored in this agenda. (THIS IS MARKER TWO YOU SHOULD WATCH FOR TO SEE IF MY THESIS IS PROVING CORRECT).
The WHY, here is obvious. And that is appeasement of the Donors, who feel increasingly threatened with no strong Republican offset to support, should the Dem's shift left.
Part 3: The Great Divide
Within the Dem Party you will see increasing Primary Challenges of establishment Dems being taken on by new Progressive candidates and getting crushed. A clear signal that popular support is overwhelming incumbent monied support.
With the Republican Party in shambles, and offering no real alternative, and the Dem party facing increasing civil wars within you will see a very clear split within the party with the Progressives having Pseudo leadership and being the only vocal detractors of Dem policy and agenda being enacted.
It will be an odd situation to see as a group within the party acts as the biggest critic of any new agenda items both in Sessions but also in media interviews. (THIS IS MARKER THREE YOU SHOULD WATCH FOR TO SEE IF MY THESIS IS PROVING CORRECT).
With it being clear that Dem Party is being over taken from within via these Primary Challenge losses, Joe and the Establishment Dems will make a big and bold move to change the Primary process to make it much harder for these to happen and succeed. A last ditch attempt to stop the grass roots democracy (power back to the people) from being instituted. (THIS IS THE FINAL MARKER YOU SHOULD WATCH FOR TO SEE IF MY THESIS IS PROVING CORRECT).
And with that the, now all but declared and established Progressive Party shall split out and become the official opposition, and the Dem Party will slide further to the Center/Right to subsume the remainder of the Republican party in an attempt to stop the Progressive movement and with the undivided and full support of the Donor Backers who can now concentrate all of their efforts behind one party.
This is the LAST BIG BATTLE as the Progressives, supported by individuals representing a true citizens voice meet up give battle to massive amounts of Donor capital truly focused in what they see as a last chance to preserve their position and benefits.
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I will not offer a conclusion on who wins the final battle, instead I will ask you to comment, if you want, on if you see what I say above as being a credible future path given the key assumption ('Trump falls and Repub party in shambles') or if you see another more credible path (Dem party Kumbaya between Establishment and Progressives?')
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You can also just give me a thumbs up or thumbs down to this Fan Fiction/Prognostication and we can maybe revisit this thread in a few years and bump it if we see the Markers or signs I point to, playing out over the years.
(to Trumpsters who are sensitive you are fine assuming Trump will win. That is an option but just not discussed here in this 'what If'. Don't be butthurt because it is not)