"Basic economics don't work" is a nonsensical phrase. It doesn't even make sense. What are you trying to say, exactly? Basic economics is the fundamental theories and concepts that drive economics. They work.

And basic knowledge of it would tell you there are 5 causes of inflation, not one.

And even that is simplifying it.

I'll end the derail, but if you take the Japan example in that Milton Friedman video, the difference between them pulling out of it and us not is the fact that we can't stop the printers now. There is simply too much interest on our past debt. The yearly interest alone is almost the same as the entire defense budget. That is grim, and the vast majority have no idea.

Max pain incoming, and neither geriatric, diaper-wearing shell of their former selves are going to be able to do dick about it.

It would have been very surprising if they hadn't.

If someone said that printing money doesn't cause inflation, they'd be mostly correct.

Printing more bills just changes the terms of each transaction. You print more to create liquidity and so that's its consumed towards products or businesses that have interest and demand. If you've got no demand, printing money won't do ****.

If the cost of shipping, trade, energy etc goes up then that's inflationery as well

We've had a lot of this recently.

More complicated then that .
Banks can do that too, printing money from Thin air (creating loans) .
But yes when government create deficit (money printing) it can create inflation .

Over demand can create inflation.
Lack of supply can create inflation
Low interest rates
War
Etc.

They can.

It just that the deflationary force are stronger .
Bad demographic being like te oldest in the world meaning they spans far less .
Biggest savers on the planet (they are the biggest holder of US treasuries if my memory serves me well)
Mostly an export economy .
Many reason explain their situation .
If u see how it’s getting cheap to live there compare to early 1990s they had a huge deflationary shock so they could printed a lot without causing inflation.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS

Japan is more of an outlier then a usual result .

4 justices are required to grant a cert petition, and there is no way this decision will be 5-4.

It isn't that surprising to see the Supreme Court take a case on a question of first impression that has significant national implications, even if the Court agrees with the Circuit decision.

This is my instinct as well.

The coordinated heel-dragging to push past the election is very on-brand with the current iteration of a once-respected SC that has lost its way and become a whore for gifts and trinkets provided by the Federalist Society.

The most dangerous result this decision leaves is a desperate Trump trapped in a corner with the only way out being an election win. In the event of a loss, he will probably go total scorched earth since he will be royally f'd and likely bankrupted as well.

Honestly interested to see how it turns out. I mean, America loses either way, but something has to happen. Election night is gonna be like the SB.

hype!

Trump is out of cash.

He's always rich when he's on the campaign trail or applying to banks for loans,
but he's always poor when it comes to income taxes or paying legal judgments.

I guess I should have added nobody that knows what they are talking about could agree with that. Sure Japan is an outlier. And so is. The US and Europe post 2008 and a bunch of other examples. What competent people realize is that inflation is not just a function of money printing alone but other factors as well.

The money printing people are all bitcoiners.

They are also talking about how the dollar would collapse by 2011.

Inso0,

Your hopes that someone other than Trump would be the GOP nominee have gone down the toilet. (I'm not trying to be a dick. As I said previously, I honestly believe that you wish it were otherwise.)

How do you see the election playing out now, both for you personally and the country?

I think we will see just how partisan the court is and this case will test the loyalty of the Trump's appointees in a public forum. I imagine scathing dissents and kiss-ass concurring opinions if they make favorable determinations for Trump. I don't think this type of result raises the image of the court and could permanently tarnish the Robert's era, possibly even end it.

As the court is following the smith procedural (or timeline) proposal, I still believe a more unanimous low-key rejection of the argument is likely and the timing of that decision won't help/will screw Trump in his bid for reelection.

I think if I took the other side of all Inso's predictions in the last 2 years for max bet on predictit, I would have made enough for a pretty nice apartment in Central London.

There is no question that the Court is partisan, but each justice's partisanship has boundaries, and I think Trump's position will be outside those boundaries for all of them (or nearly all of them).

I don't think ACB, Gorsuch, or Kavanaugh cares about Trump personally. If Trump gets any votes, I don't think it will be from them. I am guessing that this will go 9-0, but if there are any dissents, I think they will come from Alito or Thomas.

I won't be surprised if Roberts writes the majority opinion, especially if it is 9-0. He is the logical choice to write a low-key rejection.

Yeah, turns out reality DGAF about my wishful thinking.

I still think the GOP has punted on this election by allowing Trump to get the nomination. I will not be voting for Trump.

To Rococo, for me personally, none of this really matters much one way or the other. I'm a generic white dude with my financial house in order. My wife's salary ultimately comes from Medicare after passing through some non-profits, and I'm entrenched in a recession-proof company. My kids are in college for various engineering degrees, so they'll find some faction or another to lend their talents to during the apocalypse if it comes. If the economy remains hostile to young people and they need a boost after college to get a foothold, I'll help them out. Beyond being disappointed in the republicans, I'm just not very personally invested in the outcome here.

For society as a whole, I hope the election plays out with Biden curb-stomping Trump in spectacular fashion. Nature can begin to heal, and having him rebuked a second time in a row might finally relax his cult-like grip on the GOP establishment. The MAGA true believers can go back to just not paying attention to politics.

If Trump wins, there will be a great gnashing of teeth and he's going to be absolutely insufferable. I'll probably have to self-ban from the entire internet until 2028 for fear of going blind due to excessive eye-rolling. But, I don't think he'd do much harm to the long term outlook of the country as a whole, because he doesn't care about the country enough to willfully do it harm. This is about Trump and his ego.

What will society do if Trump wins? I'm not sure. Lefties will whine on the internet, but that's already a given. I'll probably continue to be called a deplorable everything-ist whenever I say something that can be construed as sympathetic to Trump. The dems will fundraise on the back of daily soundbites from Trump, each more absurd than the last. The republicans will tow the party line like good little soldiers, unless Trump gets caught doing something treasonous and then they'll turn on him immediately. The media will burn out the bulbs on their "RED ALERT" props due to overuse. They're already salivating at the potential clickstravaganza of Trump 2.0.

I'd like to think that the people who actually run our government will just give Trump the Mad Catz controller that isn't actually plugged into the console during a second term. Let him get in fights on Twitter and leave the governing to congress and the cabinet. The only downside of that plan is my fear that nobody with any common sense will agree to be part of his cabinet this time around.

The country will survive. MURICA is bigger than whatever old guy sits in the Oval office. Though, I see some of the things coming out of the EU and do find myself a little envious of their results. America can learn a thing or two about pursuing legislation that improves the lives of every citizen, and not just the list of donors.

Thanks for the response, Inso0.

As a conservative, all you can do is recognize Trump for who he is and act accordingly, which you are doing. FWIW, I honestly believe that Trump is making both parties worse, not because he is making the parties more extreme in terms of policy but rather because he has popularized a political style that frankly sucks regardless of party affiliation.

Best of luck.

Good post Inso. Very relatable.

He's a cancer, and cancer spreads.

Sweet baby Jesus, yes. Exactly this.

I hope this genie goes back into the bottle quickly, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

I won't put all the blame on Trump, though. Social media and the tech algorithms being designed to provoke strong negative feedback are just as much to blame. Trump, love or hate him, leveraged this to his benefit.