***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed) - Page 24 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed)

View Poll Results: Presidential Prediction?

Biden wins a landslide

42 50.00%

Biden ekes it out

29 34.52%

Trump ekes it out

8 9.52%

Trump wins a landslide

5 5.95%

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Page 24 of 170

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Last

11-03-2020 , 11:38 PM

#576

zipppy

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 3,150

Quote:

Originally Posted by LimpDitka

I truly believe it's a toss up. Biden taking Arizona is huge

Huge at least in that it's probably necessary at this point

11-03-2020 , 11:38 PM

#577

ladybruin

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,014

Quote:

Originally Posted by the pleasure

hwo crazy is it that you potentially could win FL and OH and you're still sweating fkn bullets

If you are a Republican you have to win FL and OH, see George W & Trump. If you are Democrats Bill Clinton or Barack Obama you win by more than the 47 electoral college votes of FL & OH thereby not technically needing those states.

11-03-2020 , 11:38 PM

#578

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

Quote:

Originally Posted by amazinmets73

Doesn't seem to be bumping Biden up...

I think right now biden should feel tiny bit more comfy for sure

11-03-2020 , 11:39 PM

#579

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladybruin

If you are a Republican you have to win FL and OH, see George W & Trump. If you are Democrats Bill Clinton or Barack Obama you win by more than the 46 electoral college votes of FL & OH thereby not technically needing those states.

Usually if you win those sattes you should be in a good direction or in the driving seat. its not looking like it so far

11-03-2020 , 11:39 PM

#580

tchaz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,832

Quote:

Originally Posted by amazinmets73

Wait, Philly is at 9%? Graphs I saw showed Philly as reporting majority.

Off topic. I followed your posts about pitching in the early 2010s and then, I guess, somehow never posted again in the same forums as you. How did it turn out? I'm really curious.

[and apologies if you find that intrusive - I lurk-followed the thread and was rooting for you

]

11-03-2020 , 11:40 PM

#581

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

bovad has trump -270 so in actuality hes -120

11-03-2020 , 11:41 PM

#582

amazinmets73

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 5,556

Quote:

Originally Posted by tchaz

]

I got up to the mid 70s and then ditched baseball for hockey.

Not intrusive at all☺

11-03-2020 , 11:42 PM

#583

synth_floyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

That's crazy.

11-03-2020 , 11:43 PM

#584

LimpDitka

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,080

Could biden lose Nevada? That would probably offset the Arizona win

11-03-2020 , 11:43 PM

#585

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 22,976

Lots of mods are tripping off Harris's for profit prisons and stance on MJ. She was a horrible choice. Possible worse than Biden.

11-03-2020 , 11:44 PM

#586

AllInNTheDark

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 3,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by younguns87

anyone that normally bets on elections, are these swings normal? thought bettors were suppose to be the sharps on this.

handicapper was talking about how in 2016 odds swung from -800 to +800 in an hour

11-03-2020 , 11:44 PM

#587

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordi

Lots of mods are tripping off Harris's for profit prisons and stance on MJ. She was a horrible choice. Possible worse than Biden.

again, she was terrible, he should have adopted a complete moderate ticket 100% and he would have drowned trump.

yet I got blasted for saying his VP pick didnt matter. glad those kids are in bed now

11-03-2020 , 11:45 PM

#588

zipppy

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 3,150

Wouldn't exit polls in general be a higher % of conservatives this year? Not a lot of exit polls for mailing in a ballot.

11-03-2020 , 11:45 PM

#589

Merry Christmas

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 386

Quote:

Originally Posted by maulaga58

NYT has dropped the ball. Id like to see their live forecast for OH,AZ

With ~13% left in Ohio, Biden would have to ~500k to 130k

11-03-2020 , 11:45 PM

#590

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

I wonder how trump will fair in NV

11-03-2020 , 11:45 PM

#591

DisGunBGud

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by zipppy

Wouldn't exit polls in general be a higher % of conservatives this year? Not a lot of exit polls for mailing in a ballot.

Bingo exit polls really mean dick

11-03-2020 , 11:45 PM

#592

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 96,003

Quote:

Originally Posted by LimpDitka

Could biden lose Nevada? That would probably offset the Arizona win

It's unlikely, but it's not a Biden lock.

Now that Biden has held NH, if he holds NV then he does have a path to winning while dropping one of the upper Midwest states.

11-03-2020 , 11:46 PM

#593

TERR1FYER

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

That's crazy.

This graphic is incorrect. Biden got 100% of the black vote because anyone that votes for Trump ain't black

11-03-2020 , 11:46 PM

#594

itshotinvegas

banned

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 7,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by LimpDitka

Could biden lose Nevada? That would probably offset the Arizona win

Vegas got hit hard by unemployment. Trump got them $300 x 3 with that EO, and it hit bank accounts last week.

11-03-2020 , 11:47 PM

#595

SpinMeRightRound

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 2,723

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

That's crazy.

So if Trump was really a racist as everyone here claims, why does he get more votes from ethnic minorities?

11-03-2020 , 11:47 PM

#596

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,178

This election was absolutely teed off for whoever the dem nom was after covid hit.. its not even funny. didn't expect it to be this close

11-03-2020 , 11:48 PM

#597

TimmayB

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 12,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound

So if Trump was really a racist as everyone here claims, why does he get more votes from ethnic minorities?

Exit polls even more highly skewed R than usual this year - assume his net gain/loss is around 0 with all groups here.

Also, it’s possible for people to vote for a guy who is racist against them. Not optimal if you ask me tho.

11-03-2020 , 11:49 PM

#598

itshotinvegas

banned

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 7,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound

So if Trump was really a racist as everyone here claims, why does he get more votes from ethnic minorities?

I would think a certain percentage of those voters are protestor voters who think the D's take them for granted, and the defund the police was really bad politics.

11-03-2020 , 11:49 PM

#599

Drifter84

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 387

Watching from Germany.
2 Points from my side:
1. your vote system is ****ed up... popular vote is so much easier and fairer.
2. im jelly that you guys can still bet on Betfair ��