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election post-mortem election post-mortem

11-07-2020 , 01:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
Insolent teen males are naturally going to dig their heels in at that point.
They're too young to know what they don't know and yet they have the budding physical and intellectual qualities of an adult. It's an adjustment.

Grown men and women don't naturally dig their heels in when someone criticizes them. The naturally reflect on their ideas and behavior.

It's a natural process by which human beings mature.
There was a study in my country of the typical "angry commenter". The kind who wreck havoc in comment sections and online discussions, usually accompanied by traits such as bigotry, trolling, misogyny, harassment and threats. The typical user was a middle-aged man in a low-paying job.
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11-07-2020 , 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
Courting Republicans didn't work, and in fact quite likely hurt Democrats down-ballot. By featuring ****ing conservative goons at the DNC and saying how great GW Bush is, you're telling your voters "hey come on man, they're good people, they want good things, we'll work together!" which is not correct or effective.
What's your argument for the bolded? Courting Republicans seems to have helped Joe Biden win - for instance he will likely barely win Arizona, where he was endorsed by former GOP Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain. He ran two points ahead of the generic Democratic candidate. What's the case it hurt candidates downballot? Just that they did worse than expected based on a polling error?

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In a normal world, Nancy Pelosi would rightly be seen as a disgrace and would be forced to resign. Instead, the media (and most normies) somehow allow her and the rest of leadership to blame everything on the left. Should have seen it coming, but no matter what happened, they were going to punch left.
Few politicians will resign their position for winning by a smaller margin than expected. But she definitely should have resigned after 2010 and probably 2014 as well.

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Try to look at this free from your political leanings:

A) "Bernie is unelectable and radical, we must not nominate Bernie, we need a sensible moderate. We will suffer horrid down-ballot losses if we nominate Bernie. We need to appeal to conservatives."

B) The most conservative of the group, the "electable" guy, wins the nomination, and publicly denounces Bernie and his policies. "I beat Bernie".

C) President is universally recognized as having handled a pandemic horribly, leading to hundreds of thousands of excess American deaths along with mass unemployment.

D) The "electable" guy squeaks out a win with horrifying down-ballot losses.

There are certainly some logical excuses for how A, B, and C could all be true even though the result was D. But, more likely, since we know B & C are factually correct, assumption A was wrong.
(C) is false. According to exit polls, 48% of voters believe US efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic are going very or somewhat well and overwhelming voted for Trump.

It's true that Biden won, though he wasn't the most conservative candidate (Bloomberg was). He also didn't publicly denounce Bernie. Saying that you won a primary and that the voters chose you and your platform and message instead of theirs is not a denunciation. And of course, from the GOP perspective, Biden is perceived as a tool of the AOC/Sanders left by many voters. But I agree that it is largely correct that Biden is generally perceived by the public as being personally more moderate than Sanders.

Your argument also assumes that entering the race generic Dem candidate and Trump were even and so a big boost from electability+COVID would manifest as a blowout rather than a narrow victory (if Trump entered with a lead). We don't know that this is true.

We also don't know how plastic the electorate is. Maybe big electoral boosts from events are no longer feasible and elections will all revolve around narrow swings of the electorate.

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Then throw in that Kerry and Clinton were nominated for similar versions of the A argument, and that Obama was a risky candidate nominated against the A argument (Black, Middle Eastern middle name, anti-Iraq War, progressive language). Cling on to "A" if you'd like, but idk what the f you think you're doing or what you hope to achieve next time. Just pray Kamala Harris squeaks it out?
I'm not super confident in the Obama/Hillary/Biden coalition. I'm definitely willing to listen to arguments about its weaknesses and how we can shore it up. But I don't view this as a binary where evidence that this coalition is weak shows that Bernie-style populism is strong.

Last edited by Original Position; 11-07-2020 at 01:27 PM. Reason: added link
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11-07-2020 , 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by d2_e4
Well, one way to prove you're not stupid is to hitch your wagon to an arrant moron. You sure showed those lefties!
I played chess better than you when I was 9

And I never voted trump.

You guys are so used to the circle jerk you can't even think straight when someone doesn't agree with you

Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
Insolent teen males are naturally going to dig their heels in at that point.
They're too young to know what they don't know and yet they have the budding physical and intellectual qualities of an adult. It's an adjustment.

Grown men and women don't naturally dig their heels in when someone criticizes them. The naturally reflect on their ideas and behavior.

It's a natural process by which human beings mature.
I see the same process here literally daily
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11-07-2020 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Ah yes, I do remember the last four years, one free from derogatory rhetoric from Republicans about Democrats, and thus leaving them limp and demotivated.
All I hear is "Well they started it!!"

It's much more of a feedback loop than any of you would care to admit
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11-07-2020 , 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by coordi
All I hear is "Well they started it!!"

It's much more of a feedback loop than any of you would care to admit
Without looking take a guess what date the first post is in the trump thread
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11-07-2020 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baltimore Jones
Courting Republicans didn't work, and in fact quite likely hurt Democrats down-ballot.
Lol... funny I would think this was evidence that it DID work at the top of the ballot.
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11-07-2020 , 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Shuffle
Never heard of this news website before, but more Matt Gaetz vs. Nikki Haley:



https://secondnexus.com/nikki-haley-matt-gaetz-twitter


100% accurate. It's a no-win scenario, mere character test for the GOP.
One can hope they **** it up enough that Dems can sweep the Georgia run offs and actually fix all the **** ups.
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11-07-2020 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
What's your argument for the bolded? Courting Republicans seems to have helped Joe Biden win - for instance he will likely barely win Arizona, where he was endorsed by former GOP Senator Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain.
The same Arizona where Donald Trump got about 350k more votes than his 2016 total? Maybe slow up on patting Republicans on the back for that one.
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11-07-2020 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Yeah bud, no one cares that you jerk yourself off
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
I played chess better than you when I was 9

And I never voted trump.

You guys are so used to the circle jerk you can't even think straight when someone doesn't agree with you
LOL yeah thank god coordi isn't here to jerk himself off, not like the hated libs lmao
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11-07-2020 , 01:52 PM
I'm afraid of what might happen over the next 74 days. There's an unhinged, unstable psychopath in charge of the nation with nothing to lose.

Anyone want to talk me down off the ledge?
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11-07-2020 , 01:56 PM
GG DEMS
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11-07-2020 , 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by goofyballer
The same Arizona where Donald Trump got about 350k more votes than his 2016 total? Maybe slow up on patting Republicans on the back for that one.
I'm not praising Republicans, I'm talking about whether a messaging strategy was successful. I don't know Arizona politics well, but I assume endorsements by prominent local Republicans like Flake and McCain helped Biden win there, and since there was no margin to spare, seems a correct strategy.

Anyway, mostly you have Republicans endorse you to win votes from independents, not Republican voters.
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11-07-2020 , 02:51 PM
Coordi doing work.
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11-07-2020 , 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by the pleasure
Coordi doing work.
Right wingers all be like "well, you called us dumb so we went and found the dumbest mother****er possible to lead us, what else were we supposed to do?"
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11-07-2020 , 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by namisgr11
I'm afraid of what might happen over the next 74 days. There's an unhinged, unstable psychopath in charge of the nation with nothing to lose.

Anyone want to talk me down off the ledge?
The law will take its course. And the US military have already put protection in place for the airspace over Joe Biden's house, if that's any sort of clue as to how things will go.
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11-07-2020 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by namisgr11
I'm afraid of what might happen over the next 74 days. There's an unhinged, unstable psychopath in charge of the nation with nothing to lose.

Anyone want to talk me down off the ledge?
Don't sweat it. Politics is politics, focus on your life because that is where you can have control . That goes for everyone really.

The new media landscape and social media landscape shovels news and stories right into people faces constantly, creating an illusion that it's up to us to resolve it. It isn't, and taking that way is just recipe for negative stress reactions. You do what you can do (vote, maybe debate it a little, or even do some politics if you are so inclined) and move on.

If that is tough, then disconnect. Doomscrolling is a 2020 affliction and a waste of time. Pundits and sources that constantly peddle headlines to make people emotional can be safely put on ignore: It's business, don't fall for it.
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11-07-2020 , 04:25 PM
Wanna run this ticket by a few people. I'm not the least bit of an election expert or follower ... have been a-political until this Trump phenomenon (which I think threatens the very reality testing of the nation and our government).

Biden wins prez election at 7.7/1 (bet a year ago)
Trump not elected -190 (election night)
Trump loses MI -350
Trump loses MN -400
Trump wins FLA -200
Trump wins OH -310
Trump loses PA -200
Trump wins TX -400
Trump loses WI -350
Trump loses NV -450

My first ever election bets. Wish I had parlayed it, lol. Not sure if the site even had parlays on elections. First blanch I think it's about 1% to sweep that ticket. Anyway, point is the type of handicapping that was used ... how did this ticket come about?

1. Trump wins FLA because if he doesn't the election is over in a flash and this election ain't over in a flash ... it goes for weeks, maybe months
2. Biden wins back the "Blue Wall"
3. Trump wins TX because the speculation he won't is the same BS that fantasizes about flipping the senate
4. Trump lose NV a tip from statistician
5. Trump wins OH similar to FLA reason
6. Biden wins nomination against 14? contenders and election as the most anti-Trump option
7. Sure didn't expect 70 million+ votes for Trump

So all this reflects a reverse type of handicapping. Instead of adding up the factors that produce results, you start with the result and figure which factors must go which way. I did this in sports for decades. I think it's the strongest angle under the sun, but am confident many will consider it ridiculous. It went 10 for 10 here, admittedly 9 favorites.
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11-07-2020 , 05:07 PM
I am undecided whether it is better to wait until he is dead or not before performing a post mortem on him.
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11-07-2020 , 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by the pleasure
why is nobody talking about the fct that if covid dint happen, trump would have prolly won big against biden?

Biden has this teed off but couldnt crush or do as well as we all thought
I dont know if it's true but it's a good reason for the people in charge to try really really hard to prevent things getting totally ****ed up.
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11-07-2020 , 06:04 PM
It's clear that the Republican party is going to have to do some soul searching and reach out to those college educated whites, those minorities, the people who got turned off by Trump's narcissism, and ask "What can we do to win your vote? Why is the Republican party not speaking to you?"
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11-07-2020 , 06:10 PM
None of that will be necessary.




Bernie 2024 will be all the republicans need to have their shot at redemption.
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11-07-2020 , 06:17 PM
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Originally Posted by tame_deuces
There was a study in my country of the typical "angry commenter". The kind who wreck havoc in comment sections and online discussions, usually accompanied by traits such as bigotry, trolling, misogyny, harassment and threats. The typical user was a middle-aged man in a low-paying job.
Who are you calling low paid ?
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11-07-2020 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
Grown men and women don't naturally dig their heels in when someone criticizes them. The naturally reflect on their ideas and behavior.
Wat
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11-07-2020 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
It's clear that the Republican party is going to have to do some soul searching and reach out to those college educated whites, those minorities, the people who got turned off by Trump's narcissism, and ask "What can we do to win your vote? Why is the Republican party not speaking to you?"
Why? The Republicans own the house for the next decade no? Seems that party crushed it everywhere except for the throne. Biden is going to have his hands tied the next 4 years without a Dem majority me thinks
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11-07-2020 , 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by d2_e4
Wat
It made more sense in my head.
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