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election post-mortem election post-mortem

11-06-2020 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Threeflight

A study was done recently that showed there have been something like 4 Billion negative articles about Trump since he took office 4 years ago. Meanwhile there was only something like 20 million negatives about Obama in 8 years.
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I’m actually really curious to see this. Please cite your source
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11-06-2020 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
The big question going forward is whether the absolute worst places in America, rural white uneducated***tholes, start realizing that decades of republican rule have failed them. Basically it comes down to whether they care about improving their communities more than they hate minorities.
That they hate minorities is a given.

The real question is when will a party propose things that will help them and message it to them effectively. Could be easy votes.

I'm betting on the over.
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11-06-2020 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doorbread
I’m actually really curious to see this. Please cite your source
2.7 million negative articles about Trump per day of his presidency! Imagine being a Trumper lmao
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11-06-2020 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
That they hate minorities is a given.

This sentiment being allowed to percolate among the lefties, along with trivializing issues important to the folks you hate, is why the left struggles to win congressional seats.
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11-06-2020 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
2.7 million negative articles about Trump per day of his presidency! Imagine being a Trumper lmao
Imagine being able to barely beat that guy in an election, especially after covid hitting in the election year. Huge assist to the NBA, NFL, and left wing biased media. I know your campaign was "Just Vote" but we all know what that really meant was "Just Vote, Biden." Sheep follow the herd. Lebron's biggest assist of his career.
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11-06-2020 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3
Imagine being able to barely beat that guy in an election, especially after covid hitting in the election year. Huge assist to the NBA, NFL, and left wing biased media. I know your campaign was "Just Vote" but we all know what that really meant was "Just Vote, Biden." Sheep follow the herd. Lebron's biggest assist of his career.
And you're soooooo ****ing mad about it loooooooool
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11-06-2020 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Threeflight
Well we just elected a VERY conservative republican congressman in a special election in our district last year, (who coincidentally lives a half mile down the road from me) and who is in a virtual tie with his opponent in the regular election this year and who appears as if he is going to win.

Is that objective enough for you?
You said it was "very pro Trump", but Trump doesn't even win the area. There are places that are very pro Trump. You just don't live in one of those places. Consider yourself lucky.
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11-06-2020 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by itshotinvegas
This sentiment being allowed to percolate among the lefties, along with trivializing issues important to the folks you hate, is why the left struggles to win congressional seats.
I'm sorry if I've trivialized your need to feel your race is superior.

My point was that the Dems abandoned poor and working class whites long ago and could easily win them back with the same policies that others are drawn to. Policies that they don't want to advance for whatever reason.

Personally racism that's not institutionalized isn't something I worry about much. Everyone is allowed to like or hate whomever or whatever they want.
You just can't have a society based on it.

Of course once you stop basing society on it most people start to lose it. It's really just a power/status thing.
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11-06-2020 , 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3
Imagine being able to barely beat that guy in an election, especially after covid hitting in the election year. Huge assist to the NBA, NFL, and left wing biased media. I know your campaign was "Just Vote" but we all know what that really meant was "Just Vote, Biden." Sheep follow the herd. Lebron's biggest assist of his career.


OrP makes a related point often, that often posters here overestimate how much policy matters in an election.

A very good point to make that point clear is that support for Trump was generally very strong and increased in the areas hit hardest by Covid, similarly we know that the ratio of Trump supporters that say Covid was important to them in the election is comparably very low low (24% vs 82% of Biden supporters).

Trump delivered the strongest voter turnout and voting numbers of a GOP candidate in modern US history. To write him off as a weak candidate was a big mistake in 2016, and he really showed why in 2020.
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11-06-2020 , 06:37 PM
Joe Biden made Donald Trump a one-term president while carrying the same amount of the popular vote as conservative hero Ronald Reagan did in ousting Jimmy Carter in 1980. Sad! Trump goes out like a DOG!
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11-06-2020 , 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by ladybruin
We are now up to 7 out of 8 of the last elections where Democrats won the popular vote.
Democrats shouldn't get over-confident in this stat. Even in four (maybe five) of those elections, the Democrat couldn't crack 50%.

Even in ideal years (2008, 1976), the popular vote never got too big. The Democrats seem to have a low ceiling and perhaps a high floor.

If the Republicans have been running good in the Electoral College (and they have), then the Democrats are running good in the popular vote.


2020: Joe Biden, ~50.5?
2016: Hillary Clinton, 48.2%
2012: Barack Obama, 51.1%
2008: Barack Obama, 52.9%
2004: John Kerry, 48.3%
2000: Al Gore, 48.4%
1996: Bill Clinton, 49.2%
1992: Bill Clinton, 43.0%
1988: Michael Dukakis, 45.6%
1984: Walter Mondale, 40.6%
1980: Jimmy Carter, 41.0%
1976: Jimmy Carter, 50.1%
1972: George McGovern, 37.5%
1968: Hubert Humphrey, 42.7%
1964: Lyndon Johnson, 61.1%
1960: John Kennedy, 49.7%
1956: Adlai Stevenson, 42.0%
1952: Adlai Stevenson, 44.3%
1948: Harry Truman, 49.6%
1944: Franklin Roosevelt, 53.4%
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11-06-2020 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3
Imagine being able to barely beat that guy in an election, especially after covid hitting in the election year. Huge assist to the NBA, NFL, and left wing biased media. I know your campaign was "Just Vote" but we all know what that really meant was "Just Vote, Biden." Sheep follow the herd. Lebron's biggest assist of his career.


https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/stat...22123466747906
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11-06-2020 , 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Original Position
I haven't looked closely at House results yet and have no sense for how progressives did relative to the rest of the party. Can you link to something?
I haven't either, but it won't tell you much. In some districts, the Democrat is bound to win, no matter what. Those are also the districts where the Democratic candidate is more likely to be a progressive. It is no coincidence that AOC emerged from a heavily Democratic district in the Bronx.

In districts that are split much more evenly between the Democrats and Republicans, the Democratic candidate is less likely to be progressive and is more likely to lose, but not because the candidate was insufficiently progressive.

Put more bluntly, if five more candidates like AOC win, and they all come from districts like her district, that won't be proof that a progressive candidate is viable in western Virginia. And the races in districts that are actually in play are the ones that Democrats have to win to keep a majority in the House.

If progressives start winning elections in districts that traditionally have been in play for Republicans, that will be very meaningful.
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11-06-2020 , 07:14 PM
win with less votes--that's because it's a republic libs

win with the votes--it's the will of the people duh

Let's see how the Rs react while losing an election with a multi-mil edge. I'm guessing it won't be pretty
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11-06-2020 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
These people are delusional, and so are other Republicans like Mitch McConnell and Rupert Murdoch. Did they really think they could make a deal with the devil and get away unscathed? Seems like a total miscalculation to me.





There is no bottom to the depths with Trump. He will burn down the entire Republican party in the next two months.
We'll see. McConnell can swing a mighty party whip, and it might land hard when things can be organized. He is very, very good at the things he does.
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11-06-2020 , 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Shuffle
Trump has all of the power in the Republican party. The voters are loyal to him, and he has absolutely no loyalty to the GOP. He doesn't care about their agenda or their judges, he cares about manipulating the voters into glorifying him as a business and political deity.

Mitch McConnell fighting a war vs. Donald Trump is the very definition of the Kobayashi Maru. The only way McConnell could win would be to sacrifice himself and his entire party.
While I agree that Trump is the face of the GOP, McConnell doesn't really fight his battles publicly, so I don't think that is a concern. It would likely be phone-calls and "friendly" meetings.

Don't underestimate institutionalized power, especially when wielded by competent people.
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11-06-2020 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Imagine thinking that Philadelphia is much worse than anywhere in Mississippi or West Virginia.
The absolute most depressing place I have ever been in the US by a very significant margin is driving through the hills of West Virginia. The scenery is beautiful, and the people obviously hopeless destitute.

jvs
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11-06-2020 , 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by PTjvs
The absolute most depressing place I have ever been in the US by a very significant margin is driving through the hills of West Virginia. The scenery is beautiful, and the people obviously hopeless destitute.

jvs
And perhaps that explains the popularity of Donald Trump. If you are in a bad spot or people around you are in a bad spot, then perhaps it's enough that the person you vote for lashes out and refuses to back down. Trump might not make a lot of sense, but at least the line from him to you is direct and he attacks someone.

There is a famous study in work psychology in the 20s, the Hawthorne Study. There were looking to see how if turning down the workplace lighting would affect productivity. What they found that turning down the lighting and turning up the lighting would both positively affect productivity. Turns out people just liked being noticed.

Spoiler:
Should probably note the findings in the Hawthorne Study are disputed, but I think the interpretation is a good one
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11-06-2020 , 08:07 PM
He legit said he would help them, he was likely lying, while Hillary called them deplorables in many cases.
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11-06-2020 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by capone0
He legit said he would help them, he was likely lying, while Hillary called them deplorables in many cases.
Deplorables was (accurately) referring to the contingent of Trump supporters that are racist POSes, but Hillary's message of like "hey maybe coal miners should learn new skills to get better jobs and we can help them do that" was met with scorn and derision. Four years later, seems like not much has changed in West Virginia? Ah, well, nonetheless! Trump 2024!
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11-06-2020 , 08:18 PM
Yeah, Trump's getting ready to concede if the numbers continue. Right. What he's gonna do is contest every mail in ballot and try to hold on to power that way. If his homies don't check him, such a move is nothing for him. He'd go way beyond that if not reigned in.
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11-06-2020 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
I have no doubt that McConnell can wield the necessary power to deal with Trump, but then what happens to him? And what happens to the rest of the GOP?

What do you think would be the reaction of MAGA voters? That's my point.
The same thing that happens to Bernie Bros.
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11-06-2020 , 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ladybruin
1. Biden was a stronger candidate than most posters in here on side either thought.

6. Partisans are gonna partisan, but going forward in national elections I'd rather be on the side getting millions more votes year after year after year after year after year ummm for like the last 30+ years.
Biden was not strong. The "woke" generation's will to out Trump was

You should want to be on the side that cares about the people, not the side that is more popular. Right now, neither side gives a **** about the people. The rich will get richer, and politicians will continue to lie and pander. Until we take a stand, nothing will change.
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11-06-2020 , 09:30 PM
When did the republicans become the party who cares about people did we miss a memo after--**** your feelings?
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11-06-2020 , 09:39 PM
The post was 5 sentences and you couldn't even make it past sentence 3 before making a horrible post. Maybe read sentence 4 and make an edit.
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