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Old 05-07-2020, 12:45 PM   #126
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

I think it will be interesting to see what happens, but I'm pretty sure you're celebrating too early, and you probably should wait a couple more weeks.
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Old 05-07-2020, 01:02 PM   #127
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!





Look at those sweet, sweet downward trends. Definitely will be down to zero any day now.
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:04 PM   #128
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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I think it will be interesting to see what happens, but I'm pretty sure you're celebrating too early, and you probably should wait a couple more weeks.
+1
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:43 PM   #129
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

Every state is already following their trend to some degree.

Hospital systems will not be overwhelmed. The slow slog of returning to normal has begun.
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Old 05-07-2020, 02:58 PM   #130
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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Every state is already following their trend to some degree.

Hospital systems will not be overwhelmed. The slow slog of returning to normal has begun.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:05 PM   #131
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

While the rate of cases seems to be growing in the state, the CDC shows that in most instances, it seems to be doing so moderately.


Flattening the curve does not mean eliminating the curve! If the goal is zero infection rate, keep us shut till vaccination. As sold to the states and the people, flatten the curve so hospitals do not get overwhelmed.

And by definition, new cases can never decline.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:08 PM   #132
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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I would guess NY/NJ is completely responsible for the orange curve going negative all by itself, and if you removed those states the orange curve would look similar to the other ones.

The point that noone should probably be locking down when Ro is still clearly > 1 is fine.

But comparing and combining states that are clearly at different points of the epidemic curve, obfuscates reality IMO.

I suspect by the time Georgia got to the point where ~20% of the population had recovered infection and their deaths/million were 1000+ (as opposed to ~100 where they currently are), they would be on the downswing too, regardless of lockdown status.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:08 PM   #133
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

My understanding is, the cases will increase after re-opening unless there is a vaccine before any re-opening.
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:17 PM   #134
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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I would guess NY/NJ is completely responsible for the orange curve going negative all by itself, and if you removed those states the orange curve would look similar to the other ones.

The point that noone should probably be locking down when Ro is still clearly > 1 is fine.

But comparing and combining states that are clearly at different points of the epidemic curve, obfuscates reality IMO.

I suspect by the time Georgia got to the point where ~20% of the population had recovered infection and their deaths/million were 1000+ (as opposed to ~100 where they currently are), they would be on the downswing too, regardless of lockdown status.
California (esp. outside of LA county), Washington, Michigan, Louisiana all trending down as well. The former two are nowhere near 20% infected and are still trending down. Lockdowns can work, and choosing to open up when you're early in the pandemic phase and cases are still growing exponentially, is to look at NYC and proclaim, "Yes, that's what I want for me and the people around me."
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:41 PM   #135
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

I live in SW Ga where the death/population, and death/cases ratio is very high - (much higher than anywhere else in GA, and from what I've seen, people are being very careful about most things...
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Old 05-07-2020, 03:51 PM   #136
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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California (esp. outside of LA county), Washington, Michigan, Louisiana all trending down as well. The former two are nowhere near 20% infected and are still trending down. Lockdowns can work, and choosing to open up when you're early in the pandemic phase and cases are still growing exponentially, is to look at NYC and proclaim, "Yes, that's what I want for me and the people around me."
I am pretty sure California would be in the light blue graph as there is a partial reopening starting this weekend.

Regardless, the point is because NY/NJ is so extreme compared to everywhere else you could include them in any group to make any point you want.

If you wanted to make a point Georgia was ok to reopen then you could use the same graph but use total cases or total death rate and the Orange curve would be magnitudes higher than the other ones and being in the blue group wouldn’t look so bad.
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:38 PM   #137
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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Old 05-07-2020, 04:58 PM   #138
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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I live in SW Ga where the death/population, and death/cases ratio is very high - (much higher than anywhere else in GA, and from what I've seen, people are being very careful about most things...
This (edit: and Hue's tweet) is basically the argument for why behavioral modeling is important; that while people surely do take signals from leaders (like the call to reopen) they also do react to the news about the severity of outbreaks and practice social distancing on their own initiative.

I guess what could be amusing about this is to the extent that it's true (unknown IMO), the negative consequences of reopening could be somewhat less than many fear, but if so then the supposed economic benefits will also be less than some hope.

Last edited by well named; 05-07-2020 at 05:03 PM.
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Old 05-07-2020, 05:00 PM   #139
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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I am pretty sure California would be in the light blue graph as there is a partial reopening starting this weekend.



Regardless, the point is because NY/NJ is so extreme compared to everywhere else you could include them in any group to make any point you want.



If you wanted to make a point Georgia was ok to reopen then you could use the same graph but use total cases or total death rate and the Orange curve would be magnitudes higher than the other ones and being in the blue group wouldn’t look so bad.
Maybe that is just poor wording, but California "would be" in the blue graph, because of opening that hasn't happened yet does not make a lick of sense.

NY and NJ do not drown out a rate of change graph, as displayed, because while their absolute magnitudes are large, their rates of change are not. Rates of change are really important, because exponential growth compresses timelines in a hurry.
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Old 05-07-2020, 10:02 PM   #140
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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Maybe that is just poor wording, but California "would be" in the blue graph, because of opening that hasn't happened yet does not make a lick of sense.
It wouldn't, accept for the fact the light blue line is labelled "reopening planned" and California has a planned partial reopening this weekend.

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NY and NJ do not drown out a rate of change graph, as displayed, because while their absolute magnitudes are large, their rates of change are not. Rates of change are really important, because exponential growth compresses timelines in a hurry.
We have a very different idea of how they went about their methodology. I assume they are just adding all the numbers, and then dividing by last weeks numbers, for each group; in which case NY and NJ cases dropping by a lot (but still being very high) would overwhelm all the other data.
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Old 05-07-2020, 10:47 PM   #141
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

That would be a pretty poor way of doing that analysis.
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Old 05-10-2020, 05:20 PM   #142
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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If your idea of phasing in opening includes hair salons and tattoo parlors in phase one, it's pretty ****ing mindless.
The Nevada governor just opened up hair salons in phase one. Can’t say I was expecting that.
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Old 05-10-2020, 06:43 PM   #143
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

More blood for the blood god
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:32 PM   #144
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

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The Nevada governor just opened up hair salons in phase one. Can’t say I was expecting that.
Hair today, gone tomorrow.
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:28 PM   #145
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Re: Antifa

This is what fighting genuine fascism looks like guys.

The real deal.


Last edited by joe6pack; 05-15-2020 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 05-15-2020, 08:50 PM   #146
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Re: Antifa

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This is what fighting genuine fascism looks like guys.

The real deal.

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Old 05-16-2020, 10:12 PM   #147
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Re: Antifa

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This is what fighting genuine fascism looks like guys.

The real deal.

Imagine posting a plan for reopening that is more strict than the status quo in Michigan as the ideal way to reopen, and then also posting that fighting against looser restrictions is fighting literal fascism.
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Old 05-17-2020, 12:03 AM   #148
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Re: Antifa

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These extended stay at home orders are pointless now.
Would you like to wager on the per capita 'rona deaths in the USA vs. Australia at the end of this year?
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Old 05-17-2020, 08:16 AM   #149
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

Brian Kemp was right. Georgia having no problems. People are getting their hair cut and life is returning to normal.

Democrat governors better follow suit quickly, or public opinion is going to shift on a dime.
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Old 05-17-2020, 11:06 AM   #150
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Re: Brian Kemp 2024!

297 new hospitalizations for covid-19 yesterday alone in GA, the most since April, and the 3rd most of any day in the span of the disease in GA. And reporting is usually slow on the weekends!
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