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Old 08-05-2020, 09:57 AM   #2576
Rococo
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

I just stumbled on the following post I made five days before Trump was elected:

Quote:
I would guess that any US president is 30%+ to face a crisis. And because it's trump, let's add 5% to account for the possibility that he will personally precipitate a crisis.

That is the most terrifying aspect of a Trump presidency.
Oof.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:03 AM   #2577
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

We need to keep an eye on testing capacity and see if rebounds, especially in Florida post hurricanes,...
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:25 AM   #2578
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

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Old 08-05-2020, 03:11 PM   #2579
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Guess no point making further "staff up" references with the OP banned (wonder why he got banned).
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:19 PM   #2580
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Guess no point making further "staff up" references with the OP banned (wonder why he got banned).
Heh, it's just a two-week temp ban, and after seeing it I feel like I understand Smudger a lot better:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ounty-1774554/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408 View Post
It's a shame that all I do is win, and the players here continue to abuse and criticize me.

I play in a different manner.
...
There is no love for me here, so I will merely lurk and grab knowledge and no longer share. You can thank the trolls.
...
Yeah yeah. I'm terrible. I suck. Been mocked enough.

It's a shame, too, as there are great posters here. Guess I was never one, and I never made the boat. My results speak for themselves.
The mod temp-banned him for repeated trolling. The sad thing is, after all his posting here, I really don't think Smudger is trolling.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:20 PM   #2581
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy View Post
Guess no point making further "staff up" references with the OP banned (wonder why he got banned).
Just had a look. Hahahahahah. Fun thread:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ounty-1774554/

Last post in that thread (from the mod of that forum):

Quote:
Blatant trolling, intentional or otherwise.
Locked and temp banned for two weeks.
Next infraction will result in permanent ban from 2+2.
Sorry I didn't see this earlier folks.
Looks like Smudger is universally loved wherever he goes. He even has a post in there about being called a troll over here lol.

Edit: ponied by goofy, damn you and your mod superpowers!
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:25 PM   #2582
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Heh, it's just a two-week temp ban, and after seeing it I feel like I understand Smudger a lot better:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ounty-1774554/



The mod temp-banned him for repeated trolling. The sad thing is, after all his posting here, I really don't think Smudger is trolling.

Yeah, that guy is genuine, but I can see how people assume he is trolling. Sometimes others believe nobody can be quite that clueless, but this thread was a perfect example of clueless being the creative force behind it.

Guess he was without intent going for a bit of what this OP posted like, though safe to say he did not quite get the reaction.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...-primo-698275/
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Old 08-05-2020, 06:03 PM   #2583
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

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Old 08-05-2020, 06:41 PM   #2584
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Texas' 3 and 7 day moving averages seem to be trending the right way (SEEM).



But this really re-enforces we must watch what is going on.

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Old 08-05-2020, 07:44 PM   #2585
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Death threats against Dr. Fauci have now extended to his immediate family.

Attempt to aid a nation through a pandemic and people threaten to kill your children. Further words shouldn't be needed on this one.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:47 PM   #2586
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

The FALLACY of Results Based Thinking.

A Case Study of Peter Navarro.



Peter Navarro is one of Trump's Economists and often speaks in defense of the organization.

He is often brought up as one of the loudest voices on the Trump team, who warned Trump of the dangers of the Covid19 and was ignored.

He has a Doctorate in Policy Sci and Economics so he is obviously a very smart guy.

That said, twice now since Sunday I have seen making the mistake of applying forms of Results Based Thinking to suggest he is correct or will be proven correct in the future.

As a poker player people who use Results Based Thinking and do not understand why it does not make them right irk me.

Example 1 : On Sunday News show Peter was making an argument of why he was potentially to be believed over Dr Fauci. He said 'at the very start of Covid I predicted we would have a vaccine in less than a year, when Fauci was saying 18-24 months. We will see who ends up closer to right.

- Fauci is using the scientific method and prior history to peg a range based on all available data. It is the RIGHT thing to do and to convery.

- Peter is making a guess. Never in the history of man have we made a vaccine so quickly. There is no rationale to make thje projection other than to guess.

- Similarly I could have guessed 3 months.

While it possible a vaccine might come in 3 months or 12 months that does not make us RIGHT, in a way that makes Fauci wrong. we made outlier guesses, Fauci was correct to give his projection based on the science. Just because we got our result does not make us right.


Example 2 - Just now Peter again was being interviewed. He has been one of the biggest proponents of Hydroxy and still tries to argue his opinion is as valid as any other on the topic.

When pressed and pressed he finally conceded based on the 5 full studies, that right now the science does NOT support its use.

But he said, 'let me leave with you this'. Months or a year from now, if we do have new studies that show Hydroxy works and we could have been administering it all this time and saving countless lives, those lives will all be on you. We know there is almost no harm if Hydroxy is administered by a doctor so why not take it'.

- that again is an example of results based thinking. If it turns out his guess, ends up right, ...then you were wrong to not follow it

That is not how science works, nor should it. There are literally thousands of medicines that taken under doctor supervision would likely do no harm to people. That does not mean if we have thousands of people saying 'try them, it cannot hurt' we should try them. And if one later turns out to be very effective, that the person who guessed it was correct.


Dr Fauci is correct NOW saying do not take it, even if it proves in later studies to be effective. Science acts on the information it has NOW and updates later with new info. It is not WRONG to not have enough info now to recommend it, or if countering data comes in later to change a prior formed view.


Sorry for the long read, but this type of thinking really irks me, and I can just see Peter Navarro and Trump touting as if they were right on claims like this if the data changes, when they were not right.

YOU ARE NOT RIGHT JUST BECAUSE A GUESS YOU MADE TURNS OUT RIGHT. THAT IS THE FALLACY OF RESULTS BASED THINKING.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:52 PM   #2587
barney big nuts
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
He might actually be worse than Trump.
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Old 08-06-2020, 01:17 AM   #2588
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

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Old 08-06-2020, 02:30 AM   #2589
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
The FALLACY of Results Based Thinking.

A Case Study of Peter Navarro.



Peter Navarro is one of Trump's Economists and often speaks in defense of the organization.

He is often brought up as one of the loudest voices on the Trump team, who warned Trump of the dangers of the Covid19 and was ignored.

He has a Doctorate in Policy Sci and Economics so he is obviously a very smart guy.

That said, twice now since Sunday I have seen making the mistake of applying forms of Results Based Thinking to suggest he is correct or will be proven correct in the future.

As a poker player people who use Results Based Thinking and do not understand why it does not make them right irk me.

Example 1 : On Sunday News show Peter was making an argument of why he was potentially to be believed over Dr Fauci. He said 'at the very start of Covid I predicted we would have a vaccine in less than a year, when Fauci was saying 18-24 months. We will see who ends up closer to right.

- Fauci is using the scientific method and prior history to peg a range based on all available data. It is the RIGHT thing to do and to convery.

- Peter is making a guess. Never in the history of man have we made a vaccine so quickly. There is no rationale to make thje projection other than to guess.

- Similarly I could have guessed 3 months.

While it possible a vaccine might come in 3 months or 12 months that does not make us RIGHT, in a way that makes Fauci wrong. we made outlier guesses, Fauci was correct to give his projection based on the science. Just because we got our result does not make us right.


Example 2 - Just now Peter again was being interviewed. He has been one of the biggest proponents of Hydroxy and still tries to argue his opinion is as valid as any other on the topic.

When pressed and pressed he finally conceded based on the 5 full studies, that right now the science does NOT support its use.

But he said, 'let me leave with you this'. Months or a year from now, if we do have new studies that show Hydroxy works and we could have been administering it all this time and saving countless lives, those lives will all be on you. We know there is almost no harm if Hydroxy is administered by a doctor so why not take it'.

- that again is an example of results based thinking. If it turns out his guess, ends up right, ...then you were wrong to not follow it

That is not how science works, nor should it. There are literally thousands of medicines that taken under doctor supervision would likely do no harm to people. That does not mean if we have thousands of people saying 'try them, it cannot hurt' we should try them. And if one later turns out to be very effective, that the person who guessed it was correct.


Dr Fauci is correct NOW saying do not take it, even if it proves in later studies to be effective. Science acts on the information it has NOW and updates later with new info. It is not WRONG to not have enough info now to recommend it, or if countering data comes in later to change a prior formed view.


Sorry for the long read, but this type of thinking really irks me, and I can just see Peter Navarro and Trump touting as if they were right on claims like this if the data changes, when they were not right.

YOU ARE NOT RIGHT JUST BECAUSE A GUESS YOU MADE TURNS OUT RIGHT. THAT IS THE FALLACY OF RESULTS BASED THINKING.
Hahaha
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Old 08-06-2020, 06:55 AM   #2590
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
The FALLACY of Results Based Thinking.

He has a Doctorate in Policy Sci and Economics so he is obviously a very smart guy.

As a poker player people who use Results Based Thinking and do not understand why it does not make them right irk me.
Think about middle claim in light of first and third statements.
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Old 08-06-2020, 06:57 AM   #2591
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

These forums in 2011 after Black Friday were amusing to read if one wants a non political example of results based thinking in all its glory, as those (typically who could not compete) had been saying for years that online poker was going down, and after Black Friday happened - well - see this is exactly what they predicted, even if they had no specific prediction of it and had been saying online poker was going to die within months for several years.

The fact that they were whine guessing all along and that online poker did not die and is still not dead a decade later is irrelevant to them. They were right in their mind. Just an obvious angle shoot, but dummies fall for it, and it is not surprising that Trump will have people that use it in such a public manner, which make it great that they are all going to lose to LOLBiden with their current approach.
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Old 08-06-2020, 07:04 AM   #2592
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

I'm reminded of a "scale of math solutions" a lecturer joked about (I'm sure it is not original).

Best:
Right answer, correctly solved

Okay:
Wrong answer, correctly solved

Bad:
Wrong answer, incorrectly solved

Worst:
Right answer, incorrectly solved
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Old 08-06-2020, 07:11 AM   #2593
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces View Post
I'm reminded of a "scale of math solutions" a lecturer joked about (I'm sure it is not original).

Best:
Right answer, correctly solved

Okay:
Wrong answer, correctly solved

Bad:
Wrong answer, incorrectly solved

Worst:
Right answer, incorrectly solved
16/64 - cancel the 6s - 1/4.
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Old 08-06-2020, 08:39 AM   #2594
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nucleardonkey View Post
Think about middle claim in light of first and third statements.
Not sure what you are highlighting?
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Old 08-06-2020, 08:42 AM   #2595
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
And again Covid equals the gift that just keeps on giving.

IF a second wave with a mutated virus strain hits will his daughter (who could basically run a marathon prior) now be in the 'most vulnerable' camp due to these gifted 'now existing conditions' she is has been left with.

Does this virus upon departing and leaving you alive, say 'we'll meet again. See you next year'?
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Old 08-06-2020, 08:47 AM   #2596
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

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Old 08-06-2020, 09:23 AM   #2597
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Re: The Moderation Discussion Thread (a/k/a who deleted my ****)

No citation. Except this citation:

Quote:
The flu vaccine’s failure to protect against some of the key strains of the infection contributed to more than 50,000 “extra” deaths in England and Wales last winter, according to data from the Office of National Statistics.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a8660496.html

Which is an actual citation unlike your vague reference to a report that may or may not support your argument.

Note the language "contributed to". Just as effects of shutting down healthcare and DNR notices "contributed to" excess mortality in 2020. The point about unfair moderation is valid since apparently we are not allowed to discuss the impact of lockdown on mortality despite this being clear in ONS data as reported by BBC, which I have cited elsewhere and has been deleted I think. Yet you are allowed to qualify flu data from 2018. This is not about being able to demonstrate arguments, this is about sound and supported arguments, as mine always are, being removed because they don't match a narrative.

Just cannot help yourself with the conspiracy theory ad hom attack.
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Old 08-06-2020, 11:15 AM   #2598
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Re: The Moderation Discussion Thread (a/k/a who deleted my ****)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1&onlybillyshears View Post
No citation. Except this citation:



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a8660496.html

Which is an actual citation unlike your vague reference to a report that may or may not support your argument.

Note the language "contributed to". Just as effects of shutting down healthcare and DNR notices "contributed to" excess mortality in 2020. The point about unfair moderation is valid since apparently we are not allowed to discuss the impact of lockdown on mortality despite this being clear in ONS data as reported by BBC, which I have cited elsewhere and has been deleted I think. Yet you are allowed to qualify flu data from 2018. This is not about being able to demonstrate arguments, this is about sound and supported arguments, as mine always are, being removed because they don't match a narrative.

Just cannot help yourself with the conspiracy theory ad hom attack.
What impact, if any, would you say the 'The Business Closures' and 'Stay at Home' mandates and other 'mitigation efforts' such as 'Self Quarantine', 'Track and Trace' and 'Wearing Masks' have had on Covid spread worldwide compared to a flu which is just generally allowed to rip thru?
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Old 08-06-2020, 11:27 AM   #2599
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Pretty sure that guy dies not even think Covid is even real, so all the stuff that you mentioned will be some form of plot by evil doers for flat world domination of some sort. Think he is upset because he cannot go whole hog on his actual thoughts in these forums.
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Old 08-06-2020, 11:35 AM   #2600
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Re: Covid-19 lockdowns and reopenings (formerly: Brian Kemp 2024)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo View Post
I just stumbled on the following post I made five days before Trump was elected:



Oof.

You didn't think a reality TV star could handle a crisis irl ?

He shaved Vince McMahon's head like a boss. There's nothing he can't do !!!
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