Those aren't proof of mask-noncompliance. If those people are equally-masked but, due to being poor, are obligated to work more at jobs that cannot be done from home, you'd also expect higher cases and deaths.

I wonder what could have happened in the last 2-3 weeks to cause such a massive spike in cases?

Now let me see......

Were there any large gatherings? Protests, looting, people yelling, screaming, spittle flying in all directions? Nah, can't be that.

Must be Trump's fault.

Yeah, that explains why the bluest states with the most protesters have the largest spread right now.

Get in line with your basic ****, this thread is for dunking on Kelhus for the moment.

Polls have the problem that they tell you as much what people think you want them to say their actions were, as much as what their actual actions are. I would hope the 2016 general election would have taught us that.

Give me antibody numbers over polls any day of the weak. Mask compliance is probably going to be some derivative of COVID spread, but I don't know the exact formula, and neither does anyone else.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Facts don't care about your feelings.

Don't let me stop you. Just thought I would inject a bit of reality into the mix.

Exactly. I mean I can't speak for the US but surely it's the same as here, the working class in general will see far higher rates of non-compliance just by virtue of their need to actually go out and work, use public transport, be in close contact with more people etc. Nothing to do with whatever reasoning is trying to be portrayed here(what is the reasoning trying to be portrayed here? That poors are just disobedient scummers?) and everything to do with the reasons stated above.

This is a far cry from the sort of whiny "karen" types who feel they are above it, or think it's a hoax, or who won't kowtow to liberal pressures etc.

Wow, Kelhus rejects data that doesn't fit his narrative? Who could have seen this coming?

We had similar protests here in the UK on the 28th of May and haven't seen a discernible increase in cases as a result. There's more at play, seemingly.

The 2016 general election polls that correctly predicted, within a couple percent, Hillary and Trump's popular vote margin? The 2016 general election polls that were more accurate than 2012?

I mean I've seen droolers on ChiefsPlanet do the "2016 proved polls are fake" dance, didn't think anyone on this poker forum would be idiotic enough to do the same. But KELHUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSS to the rescue lolol



Never change, dumbass

Oh, right. The huge spike was just a coincidence then. Sure Bud.

No need for a coincidence, it seems you guys made the fatal error of proclaiming victory too early and opening up in a manner that was far too lackadaisical.

Except for places like Los Angeles where there were hundreds of thousands (millions?) protesting; I think the actual number of protesters was so minimal it wasn't a big effect.

Also, some places (notably NYC) may have already had some level of herd immunity, minimizing any effect from protests.

I agree, just providing some insight for joe6pack, above.

Plus, I think that we lose sight of scales comparing the US to other places. Your location says Scotland. The metropolitan area I live in (major city plus suburbs) has a higher population than Scotland.

So what effect is a few hundred thousand people protesting going to really have in a nation of 400M?

The US academic community pledged their full support for the protests before a single stat had been calculated. I am sorry, once you declare your allegiance to a movement you are an activist, and I am going to be extremely skeptical of the impartiality of any research you do concerning the movement, especially research whose results just happen to confirm your biases.

I spent most of my adult life doing academic research, so it is not like I am an outsider looking in. For good or bad, right or wrong, academia has taken a partisan side in the US culture wars, and this is going to affect the integrity of their work examining this area. There is no way it couldn't.

"We never had any other choice but to end up like this, it's our geography"

Very little, that's the point.

That kind of assumes a partisan motive for their conclusions, which is a bit accusatory and perhaps unfair towards anyone in academia.

I don't think you can look at an academic's conclusions and decide apropos of nothing that they are partisan. Seems unfair.

He's just engaging in some projection. Kelhus worked in academic research, and he always jumps behind partisan narratives even when the data says otherwise, so everyone else in his field must be doing exact same thing!

.

Sent from my Nokia 6.1 using Tapatalk

Kind of interesting to see how evil geography will become in the future in the narrative. They should just punch geography in the face. I admit, I would not have put geography as the next thing that would be blamed, but hell, why not!

Where is the evidence the NY/NJ is responsible for the current uptick in FL? I live in NYC and I do not know a single person who has traveled to Florida since mid-March. Air travel obviously has trickled to a near standstill. There can't be that many New Yorkers driving 900+ miles to Florida.

Florida obviously gets visitors from outside the state, even during a pandemic. But my guess is that a higher than usual percentage of visitors are from geographically proximate states (AL, MS, GA, LA) than is usually the case.

This is the problem with those sorts of arguments, every country on the planet can point to a set of circumstances that are unique to them alone. It is how well they implement the commonly accepted solutions that determines how effective their response, and how desirable their outcome, ultimately is. It is a real problem when you can't even get the populace to employ the simplest of these(mask wearing). Looking at that alone it is no surprise whatsoever that any lockdown measures have by and large been a complete failure.

His point is that it is part of the geography problem, and why geography is to blame. Curse you - Geography! Hopefully Hawaii will be blamed next for Florida.