Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
And as he shows, there is no more virus in the state, and the whole thing is totally over.
You understand how the numbers work much better than I do. But Texas now has a baseline of cases that is so large compared to the original outbreak that it is a foregone conclusion it is going to be horrific compared to the relatively mild first wave here. That is, unless, the virus has just totally disappeared. I have not seen any evidence of it disappearing, so I wonder where this confidence comes from.
Even if we maintained social distancing and mask wearing, without tracking and tracing the reopening in Texas was going to be really, really, really bad. But all of those precautions are out the window and there is little to no enforcement of protective measures which means we just rolled back the whole outbreak to February but instead of having 5 cases, no protective measures and exponential growth, Texas Now has 1200 cases, no protective measures and exponential growth.
In the last week of March the US had a little over 50,000 cases. Those came from a literal handful of cases in January. Now we are going to groundhog’s day this thing but instead of going from 10 active cases to 50,000 total cases in three months we are going from well over 20,000 active cases to ??? Total cases by the end of August?
There is no way this not a huge disaster that dwarfs the first wave if one of a number of things don’t happen:
1) Widespread testing and tracing. The federal government has refused to even consider the only legitimate current strategy. Plus it’s effectiveness when everything is wide open is questionable. We would need a hardcore lockdown to get to a point where we could effectively manage cases and spread.
2) Some sort of miracle treatment is discovered that greatly reduced the severity of cases. I pray that some drug is found to greatly impact this virus to save us from ourselves but this is hard work at the mercy of dumb luck. Counting on this would be crazy.
3) Getting a vaccine. Nobody of any knowledge or understanding expects a vaccine for a very long time at best.
4) Having the virus magically disappear. While theoretically possible the odds are so ridiculously long as to essentially be comical. Plus Trump defenders are all already acting like the virus has disappeared, even though massive parts of the US and the world are setting records daily.
It is unfortunate that the understanding and acceptance of science has become a partisan issue. But people in power have used this attack on science to keep their supporters in the dark and foaming at the mouth. The numbers are all out there and very clear. They have been from the very beginning. People are unstuck we’re way ahead of the curve on this and took actions long before the general population did. They also were absolutely right on the growth and spread of the virus and where it would go even when only 15 known cases existed in the US. Now we have a baseline over 20,000 instead of fifteen and all the hard fought lessons are being thrown to the side because #freedom and lol old people.