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Old 06-03-2021, 04:07 PM   #4101
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I disagree. Or possible agree. It's tough to tell but either way I'm sure I do it fervently.

but any opinion that says a meaningful effect can be dismissed by default until proof either way is a very poor one. The sort of thinking that has plagued this plague.
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:22 PM   #4102
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I had homes in both AZ and Vancouver at the start of this pandemic, having just moved from Edmonton. I chose to stick it out in Vancouver despite Vancouver being the worst hit place in Canada during that first wave and AZ being relative not hit.
Um, wait, what?

In the first few weeks, BC had a higher case per capita count at the end of March than AB or ON, but well behind QC. That's when we were talking very small numbers - 1081 total cases in the entire province through the end of March. At some point in April, AB and ON skyrocketed past BC. The first wave is actually the point in this pandemic at which BC was by far the least hit among the larger provinces. Spring break timing likely had a lot to do with this - ours was a little later than in QC and ON, and BC stopped travel just a couple days before spring break began.

The pattern in AZ was very similar - a little behind BC per capita in March, and then flying past in April.

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I absolutely believe Vancouver's quick adoption of masks amongst almost everyone out in the public and that continuing is why Vancouver tamed it and why this Province has been one of the best examples of a relatively big city handling it and staying mostly open.
It may have been a factor, but it should be pointed out that BC was quite slow to impose mask mandates - that didn't happen until late November. Even recommendations to wear them didn't come until the first wave was pretty much over. Were we quicker to wear masks here without a recommendation or mandate? Perhaps. It's a difficult thing to measure, unfortunately.

Mask wearing has its place, for sure. I just wouldn't want to see it become one of the main solutions anywhere.
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:22 PM   #4103
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I disagree. Or possible agree. It's tough to tell but either way I'm sure I do it fervently.

but any opinion that says a meaningful effect can be dismissed by default until proof either way is a very poor one. The sort of thinking that has plagued this plague.
I edited in two words to better clarify what I meant.

But since we are not agreeing to disagree over this matter of opinion and asserting our positions as the correct ones, I again say you are just wrong here if you think those are meaningful. Monty and I have the only correct view.

Last edited by Cuepee; 06-03-2021 at 04:34 PM.
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:27 PM   #4104
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

It's not symmetrical. You're missing that.

but ok we can disagree to agree
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:33 PM   #4105
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Um, wait, what?

In the first few weeks, BC had a higher case per capita count at the end of March than AB or ON, but well behind QC. That's when we were talking very small numbers - 1081 total cases in the entire province through the end of March. At some point in April, AB and ON skyrocketed past BC. The first wave is actually the point in this pandemic at which BC was by far the least hit among the larger provinces. Spring break timing likely had a lot to do with this - ours was a little later than in QC and ON, and BC stopped travel just a couple days before spring break began.

The pattern in AZ was very similar - a little behind BC per capita in March, and then flying past in April.
I don't think what you are saying disagrees with what I have said at all.

When I first came to BC in Feb and March my friends and family thought i was nuts as we sprung to an early covid lead, but by the end of March, May I felt I had made the right decision as rates plummeted in BC while rising in Quebec, Ontario and AB.

Quote:
It may have been a factor, but it should be pointed out that BC was quite slow to impose mask mandates - that didn't happen until late November. Even recommendations to wear them didn't come until the first wave was pretty much over.

Mask wearing has its place, for sure. I just wouldn't want to see it become
one of the main answers anywhere.
People need to understand the value of a mask as way too many have the wrong expectation of what they do.

If you are spending a small amount of time going in and out of places like Coffee shops or Grocery stores, masks on everyone work just fine.

Just like with social distancing they reduce the chance of direct droplets (sneeze, cough, etc) providing splatter to your face and they also reduce the acceleration and trajectory of the aerosol, allowing them to fall towards the ground in less distance.

They allow for normal air circulation to disperse the aerosol and droplets quicker (much like being outside does).

There are not a panacea. Sitting inside for hours with a mask beside someone else with a mask will still see the aerosol build up and penetrate your mask.

But we should have no doubt that the addition of extra 'time' needed BEFORE you get infected (aerosol or droplets) is a positive that reduces overall risk.
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:50 PM   #4106
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I don't think what you are saying disagrees with what I have said at all.

When I first came to BC in Feb and March my friends and family thought i was nuts as we sprung to an early covid lead, but by the end of March, May I felt I had made the right decision as rates plummeted in BC while rising in Quebec, Ontario and AB.
It very much disagrees with what I read, but apparently not with what you actually meant. When you said "the worst hit place in Canada during that first wave", it seems you meant in the first few weeks rather than the entire first wave. Makes much more sense, now that I understand that. Seems weird now to think friends and family even considered that noteworthy in such early days with very small numbers, but we've come so far it's easy to forget where our heads were at then. I remember thinking schools might be closed for a couple weeks after spring break until we stopped the spread, and then life would be back to normal.

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People need to understand the value of a mask as way too many have the wrong expectation of what they do.
Agree with pretty much everything you said here at the end, but I'm quoting just this part because it kind of sums up what my point has been. Masks are helpful, as long as we don't forgo or decrease other more needed measures because of them.

And I really hope that they can come up with some good data about outdoor mask wearing so the idea of outdoor mask wearing where there are no crowds can be killed off, unless it actually proves effective in some way.
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Old 06-03-2021, 04:59 PM   #4107
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I was involved in hiring a medical expert to clarify some Covid-19 practices. His ending statement was something ala there being a lot measures where there isn't a full consensus, the point wasn't 100% certainty, but a totality of measures that we can reasonably expect to work and that personal opinion, even for an expert, was pretty irrelevant.
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Old 06-03-2021, 05:04 PM   #4108
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by tame_deuces View Post
I was involved in hiring a medical expert to clarify some Covid-19 practices. His ending statement was something ala there being a lot measures where there isn't a full consensus, the point wasn't 100% certainty, but a totality of measures that we can reasonably expect to work and that personal opinion, even for an expert, was pretty irrelevant.
Indeed. There we're various different options that could garner that reasonable consensus. As with many things, execution matters far more than the endless debates about which is best. Unfortunately ...

(to avoid the old debate rearing it's maskless head again, I doubt any reasonable consensus view didn't include masks)
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Old 06-03-2021, 05:15 PM   #4109
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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It's not close to just about risky behavior in the bad driving sense either. Of all the people I know, I've been by far the most careful - for over a year I went into precisely one building other than my home. That was to the post office and it was important but I wouldn't have gone without a mask. In ten weeks since my first vaccine shot I've done two things, neither of which I would have done without a mask. Literally everyone else I know has done far more and it's nearly always about the mask. A few are idiots and they are the only ones for whom it wasn't about the mask.
Yeah, that's basically what I was thinking. But this study - while showing that mask mandates essentially decrease time spent at home, which increase risk - adds a different perspective:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82574-w
Quote:
At present it is unclear whether the risk compensation associated with masks results in a net benefit or net cost. However, the difference between a few trips with a mask and staying home, spread across the entire population could be the difference between the reproductive rate of the pathogen (R(t)) exceeding one, and renewed exponential growth, and a reproductive rate less than one and containing the epidemic.
[....]
Our results should not be used as a justification for discouraging face mask use. Rather, extreme care must be taken when suggesting new behaviors that may be helpful, in order to avoid replacing behaviors that are known to be helpful. The message to wear a face mask in public is at least suggestive that it is safe to resume public interactions with a mask. However, time in public is still riskier than time at home and can still enable transmission from asymptomatic individuals.
In other words, at least for some it's not that they believe the masks provide immunity but rather that the mask mandate is taken as a sign of less overall community risk. I think we're seeing plenty of that now as people who haven't been vaccinated are going out more because the risk is much less do to the people who have.... a free-rider subset of which the use of dart guns against wouldn't cause me to lose any ethical sleep over, fwiw.
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Old 06-03-2021, 05:58 PM   #4110
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

That adds a further point on top of the same point. I would say not as suggestive as ending lockdowns, saying it's safe to go on holiday abroad and paying people to go to lunch!

I'm not sure it's so much a free rider problem as more of the same 'masks work!' problem. People are very poor at understanding reduced risk rather than safe. As a somewhat obscure joke - The who forgot to mention how hard that is.
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Old 06-03-2021, 06:01 PM   #4111
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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... Seems weird now to think friends and family even considered that noteworthy in such early days with very small numbers, but we've come so far it's easy to forget where our heads were at then. I remember thinking schools might be closed for a couple weeks after spring break until we stopped the spread, and then life would be back to normal.


...
Ya it's hard to remember the change over the earliest few weeks.


As the virus got its first foothold in Canada it was BC that lead the way and the thought was the high Asian population was going to be a big problem here.

As BC had all the big firsts ('community spread', 'death', 'lockdowns') and back then 20 new cases a day was making people gasp. 70 was considered very bad and when we broke 100 a day I recall everyone gasping at that number. Of course deaths were off the charts per case compared to now.

How things have changed. BC has been mostly open since that first wave and has lead the country amongst bigger Provinces and in Vancouver, outside some small protest groups i see 100% in mask usage and people complying with the other orders.
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Old 06-04-2021, 11:01 AM   #4112
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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And I really hope that they can come up with some good data about outdoor mask wearing so the idea of outdoor mask wearing where there are no crowds can be killed off, unless it actually proves effective in some way.
This idea seems to have been killed off already. Mask usage among people walking around outdoors has plummeted in the last three weeks.
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Old 06-04-2021, 11:07 AM   #4113
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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A quick search shows plenty of studies on the issue and it's already established that wearing seat belts increases risky driving, wearing condoms....
To a degree, perhaps, but I would be really surprised if there is a study that shows that the net effect of seat belts was an increase in serious injuries or fatalities from traffic accidents. And I would be even more surprised if there is a study that shows that the availability of condoms increased the number of sexually transmitted diseases or unwanted pregnancies.
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Old 06-04-2021, 03:26 PM   #4114
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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...
And I really hope that they can come up with some good data about outdoor mask wearing so the idea of outdoor mask wearing where there are no crowds can be killed off, unless it actually proves effective in some way.
I think we can and should use some common sense here knowing data may/will follow from the experts.

We know now that spread is manly a function of two things which is droplets and aerosol and either of those ability to reach our mucus membrane (nose, eyes, mouth). Both are impacted by proximity or what we call 'distancing'.

Why? Distancing allows for them to disperse or be diluted before reaching you.

Why? Air circulation. The way air moves.

Thus outdoor >>> indoor. Indoor with great air circulation > than indoor with poor circulation, etc.

Thus why even in BLM protests very little community spread happened.

So when I am out walking, I try not to walk directly behind the same person for a long period of time, especially if i cannot distance, as I do not want to be in a constant down draft. Same for sitting too close beside the same person outside.

But if you have any distance or ability to not be around the same person for any prolonged time or there are any winds you can avoid being downwind there simply is no reason to wear a mask outdoors.

If i am at Concert in the Park and in a seat close, I might reconsider but really the circumstances would be few, especially as vaccination rates rise.
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Old 06-04-2021, 04:02 PM   #4115
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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To a degree, perhaps, but I would be really surprised if there is a study that shows that the net effect of seat belts was an increase in serious injuries or fatalities from traffic accidents. And I would be even more surprised if there is a study that shows that the availability of condoms increased the number of sexually transmitted diseases or unwanted pregnancies.
Which ties into the point I was repeating with CHez that I don't (and Monty does not) think it would have any meaningful net impact.

Open to data saying otherwise, but until then we are all just spit balling opinions.
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Old 06-04-2021, 04:18 PM   #4116
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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To a degree, perhaps, but I would be really surprised if there is a study that shows that the net effect of seat belts was an increase in serious injuries or fatalities from traffic accidents. And I would be even more surprised if there is a study that shows that the availability of condoms increased the number of sexually transmitted diseases or unwanted pregnancies.
I would think if the studies did show that we wouldn't be advised or required to wear seat belts. That or the communities they were studying went extinct before the studies could be completed.

With the masks my view is everything else being equal a community wearing them would have a lower r, with the bulk of that reduction do to the infected infecting fewer people. Hard to imagine how that wouldn't be the case. But probably not by much and certainly not by enough to get C19's r <1. In contrast, we know staying at home significantly reduces r. So we have hugely disparate outcomes between the two preventative measures whereby even a small increase in risk compensation (not staying home) could have a much larger impact on r.

So the ptb need to know the effects of risk compensation but not really to tell people not to wear masks since we/they assume the masks have some effect on reducing r. Instead they need to know the extent and consequences of risk compensation to craft a messaging strategy to keep people at home.
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Old 06-04-2021, 04:21 PM   #4117
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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To a degree, perhaps, but I would be really surprised if there is a study that shows that the net effect of seat belts was an increase in serious injuries or fatalities from traffic accidents. And I would be even more surprised if there is a study that shows that the availability of condoms increased the number of sexually transmitted diseases or unwanted pregnancies.
The analogy is with the behavioral response. Not the consequence of that response which isnt comparable as one is an exponential infectious disease and the others erm... isn't.

We simply dont know the extent of the consequences but we understand the nature of the behavior easily enough as well as being able to see it. We also know that it's an exponentional infectious disease which is easy to understand as well.
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Old 06-08-2021, 11:11 AM   #4118
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Incredible scenes in the other place.

Mind is blown no hyperbole.
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Old 06-08-2021, 02:50 PM   #4119
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I would think if the studies did show that we wouldn't be advised or required to wear seat belts. That or the communities they were studying went extinct before the studies could be completed.

With the masks my view is everything else being equal a community wearing them would have a lower r, with the bulk of that reduction do to the infected infecting fewer people. Hard to imagine how that wouldn't be the case. But probably not by much and certainly not by enough to get C19's r <1. In contrast, we know staying at home significantly reduces r. So we have hugely disparate outcomes between the two preventative measures whereby even a small increase in risk compensation (not staying home) could have a much larger impact on r.

So the ptb need to know the effects of risk compensation but not really to tell people not to wear masks since we/they assume the masks have some effect on reducing r. Instead they need to know the extent and consequences of risk compensation to craft a messaging strategy to keep people at home.
The biggest problem in the spread of Covid is that people who are asymptomatic can still spread it. So wearing of masks can significantly lower r. But unless testing and contact tracing are ubiquitous (not the case in the US) people won't be staying home when they are carriers...

Look at South Korea. Everybody there wears masks.

Couple that with the ability to test and contact trace and they have repeatedly stopped Covid in its tracks.

Not to mention that mask wearing significantly reduces the viral load at the point of transmission which should reduce the death rate.
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Old 06-29-2021, 02:24 PM   #4120
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings


WHO recommends masks even for fully vaccinated; Pfizer, Moderna vaccines may offer long immunity: COVID-19 updates
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Old 06-30-2021, 09:51 AM   #4121
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Sadly the W.H.O has trust issues and good luck with a mask mandate

Are mask mandate in our province is lifted tomorrow and will go mask free unless a business mandates it. To those that wear a mask while driving alone or walking outside alone bless their hearts and those that choose to wear one no worries. I am double dosed and living life. Now open the border so I can go to Vegas
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Old 07-03-2021, 04:09 AM   #4122
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Sadly the W.H.O has trust issues and good luck with a mask mandate

Are mask mandate in our province is lifted tomorrow and will go mask free unless a business mandates it. To those that wear a mask while driving alone or walking outside alone bless their hearts and those that choose to wear one no worries. I am double dosed and living life. Now open the border so I can go to Vegas
I wear a mask when it is required, such as when riding on a city bus (which I do almost every day).

If I am outside I don't wear a mask, unless I am within several feet of someone who is wearing a mask, in which case I put my mask on so as to not create possible discomfort for that other person.
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Old 07-03-2021, 09:54 AM   #4123
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I wear a mask when it is required, such as when riding on a city bus (which I do almost every day).

If I am outside I don't wear a mask, unless I am within several feet of someone who is wearing a mask, in which case I put my mask on so as to not create possible discomfort for that other person.

I was surprised with the mask mandate lifted I was in Costco yesterday and 80% of folks were wearing a mask still. I expected more mask less folks I keep one with me at all times and if a business has a policy to still wear it I will.

What is going on in England concerns me though with the Delta variant
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Old 07-03-2021, 10:32 AM   #4124
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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If I am outside I don't wear a mask, unless I am within several feet of someone who is wearing a mask, in which case I put my mask on so as to not create possible discomfort for that other person.
where are you where people outside are wearing masks?

i don't even have a mask anymore.
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Old 07-03-2021, 11:46 AM   #4125
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where are you where people outside are wearing masks?

i don't even have a mask anymore.
Canada for me. Yeah it blows me away when I see people in a car ort outside by themselves wearing a mask. Though my overall attitude is doesnt effect me so all the power if it makes you safe
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