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Old 05-28-2021, 10:03 AM   #4051
Cuepee
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
.
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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
Rather than addressing the rest of your post, I think it's best to start here, as the foundation of your logic seems deeply flawed. I have no idea where you're getting this "rounding error" idea, unless you're relying simply on the one graph you posted about one small time range in one health region. Looking at the BC Covid Dashboard, 10.6% of BC Covid cases are in the 10-19 age group, which makes up 12.7% of our population. Even the 0-9 age group has 5.6% of the cases - significantly lower than the 10% they represent of the population, but still far from a rounding error. Nationally, the 0-19 age group represents 18.8% of Canadian cases, an even higher percentage than in BC (16.2%). So while they appear to be less susceptible to Covid than other age groups (which is why they were at the bottom of the priority list), there are far too many cases in that age group to be simply skipped.

I should add, rereading your post I see that you said "catching and transmitting" - I know I've heard before that some experts feel transmission from kids is lower, so that also needs to be factored in to prioritization. But I don't think that changes things to the point where they can be left out of vaccinations, unless you have data to show otherwise.
Admittedly a lot of the data I looking at is coming from the BFI thread and a certain poster who I know has a real penchant for combing thru mountains of data and ONLY then posting the stuff that supports his position. So I try to take it with massive grains of salt and try to verify myself where I can.

Here is the latest steal from that thread.



And i think a valid point being that almost certainly many of the 300 kids who died of the 40 MM in that group would have had pretty serious pre-existing conditions.

And i am not 'against' kids being vaccinated. I am just struggling to figure out what the point is, if they are unlikely to get it, has almost no impact if/when they do, and are not considered meaningful risk factors to continue the spread or mutation of it, especially if the adult population gets vaccinated thus minimizing community spread greatly.

I am always weary of the Big Pharma profit motive also in parallel play to any health procedures. Especially ones that they can build guaranteed recurring revenue off of such as this. An infant vaccinated who will then need a lifetime of boosters is a massive profit win for them. MASSIVE.

We've seen to many 'accidental leaks' over the years of top Pharma Execs strategizing on how they can coordinate to get the 'required science' and then lobby government to do things like adjust the acceptable blood pressure or cholesterol rate downward which over night would 'require' doctors to recommend their patients start taking lifelong meds to regulate it and then Big Pharma mapping out how that translates to profits but in those meds but also in the meds of that percent that develops 'complications' and thus needs other meds.

Very detailed profiting off of people considered healthy the day before and then unhealthy that day.



(I am tagging O.A.F. K in here as he has shown a great ability to cut thru data BS such as what we see regularly in the BFI.)
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Old 05-28-2021, 03:07 PM   #4052
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I don't know whether this question should go in the Biden thread or this thread.

What do we think of Fauci and Biden publicly opening the door (or conspicuously declining to close the door) to the possibility that the COVID was caused by some sort of lab breach in China rather than zoonosis?

I doubt that that Biden wants a lab breach to be the actual explanation. In other words, I don't think he would encourage speculation on this point either for kicks or to score political points. If conclusive evidence were to emerge in support of a lab breach, I doubt that there would be any serious repercussions for China. More likely, it would underline that Western democracies lack both the will and the ability to exert leverage over China.

Cracking the door on this point makes sense if Biden wants to minimize the political blowback in the event that convincing evidence of a lab breach becomes public. Is there another explanation?

And if that is the explanation, should we expect more evidence to emerge in support of a lab breach?
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Old 05-28-2021, 03:47 PM   #4053
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

This is a good reminder that neither scientists nor authority figures are perfect or immune from societal pressures and thus their pronouncements should not always be trusted without critical push back.

There was never I time I accepted that the 'lab leak' theory was completely discredited and the zoonotic theory was a proven consensus view such that even raising the other as possible (not probable) was being treated like climate denial.

I always say it as a reaction to Trump and those seeing how Trump would demonize the Chinese and use it to drum up hate based support for himself, if they conceded that.

I am not saying either theory is correct or not, or trying to 'weight' them, just that it is not 'settled science'.


I had the same issue with the early Mask guidance. I bought N95 masks early in Feb through Amazon and they were widely available and I was trying to tell others (friends and family) they should buy them and kept getting countered with "the CDC says now masks don't work'. Again complete nonsense, and proven so latter. The nonsense was jumping to such an absolute conclusion and pretending it is 'settled' so early.

Many try to say later, including many top scientists that was said because they were trying to protect supplies for 1st line responders but that is a lie. A lie told to avoid simply saying they got it wrong. Those supplies were readily available and they were not buying them up for 1st responders and instead many charities were gathering them up and sending them back to China to help out there. In early March I took my N95 masks to my community fire hall and donated them as by that point they were finally acknowledging they worked and now there was a true shortage.

So my view is that Biden's agencies have let him know there is nothing conclusive either way and Trump being Trump made it difficult to discern. So he realizes now he has to leave that door open and see where the data takes them.
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Old 05-28-2021, 10:51 PM   #4054
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
Admittedly a lot of the data I looking at is coming from the BFI thread and a certain poster who I know has a real penchant for combing thru mountains of data and ONLY then posting the stuff that supports his position. So I try to take it with massive grains of salt and try to verify myself where I can.

Here is the latest steal from that thread.



And i think a valid point being that almost certainly many of the 300 kids who died of the 40 MM in that group would have had pretty serious pre-existing conditions.
This is an extremely odd reply to my post.

I was replying to your underlying point:

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From what I am seeing in the empirical evidence people under 20 represent a rounding error at best in catching and transmitting covid. The risk is near statistical zero.
As I said in reply: "I have no idea where you're getting this 'rounding error' idea, unless you're relying simply on the one graph you posted about one small time range in one health region." I then provided you with data about Covid cases, from the province whose approach you were questioning. Why you've come back with data about deaths, from an unnamed jurisdiction, I have no idea. It's not relevant to your earlier point that I was disputing, and it doesn't seem especially relevant to whether or not kids should be vaccinated. As you know, mass vaccination is about stopping the spread, as much as anything.

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And i am not 'against' kids being vaccinated. I am just struggling to figure out what the point is, if they are unlikely to get it
I don't know what the struggle is, when I've provided data that shows this is not true.

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has almost no impact if/when they do, and are not considered meaningful risk factors to continue the spread or mutation of it, especially if the adult population gets vaccinated thus minimizing community spread greatly.
This is a point that makes more sense, as I mentioned in my last post, when I said: "I know I've heard before that some experts feel transmission from kids is lower, so that also needs to be factored in to prioritization. But I don't think that changes things to the point where they can be left out of vaccinations, unless you have data to show otherwise." I'm not convinced either way on this point, as there has been much discussion about lower transmissibility with kids, but I've not seen any hard numbers on this. Data in our schools here seems to indicate transmissibility is lower, but not insignificant.
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Old 05-29-2021, 11:19 AM   #4055
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I should have been cleared Bobo, as I was not offering that reply to 'counter' what you said. I was actually happy to get your last post and consider it into my knowledge base as I thought all your points dug deeper and gave better insights.

When I quoted you and O.A.F.K. there is was not to counter either of you but to make sure you got a notice of that posting in the hopes you would reply and I could more 'supportive' or 'countervailing' insights on that specific post.
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Old 05-30-2021, 02:03 PM   #4056
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Not posting this to mock as it is sad. I am posting this to point out how short sighted, selfish and ignorant people can be who hold these views.



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Old 06-01-2021, 06:19 AM   #4057
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I should have been cleared Bobo, as I was not offering that reply to 'counter' what you said. I was actually happy to get your last post and consider it into my knowledge base as I thought all your points dug deeper and gave better insights.

When I quoted you and O.A.F.K. there is was not to counter either of you but to make sure you got a notice of that posting in the hopes you would reply and I could more 'supportive' or 'countervailing' insights on that specific post.
Fair enough, but that still leaves me a little confused about this part:

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Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
And i am not 'against' kids being vaccinated. I am just struggling to figure out what the point is, if they are unlikely to get it, has almost no impact if/when they do, and are not considered meaningful risk factors to continue the spread or mutation of it, especially if the adult population gets vaccinated thus minimizing community spread greatly.
The bolded part especially, since I think I provided evidence that directly contradicts this. For the remainder, I'm wondering what evidence you're basing that on, if any. I ask not because I necessarily believe you have that all wrong, but because I'm genuinely interested in data if you have it.
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Old 06-01-2021, 09:09 AM   #4058
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
Fair enough, but that still leaves me a little confused about this part:


The bolded part especially, since I think I provided evidence that directly contradicts this. For the remainder, I'm wondering what evidence you're basing that on, if any. I ask not because I necessarily believe you have that all wrong, but because I'm genuinely interested in data if you have it.
I think i can answer that this way best...

"...Admittedly a lot of the data I looking at is coming from the BFI thread and a certain poster who I know has a real penchant for combing thru mountains of data and ONLY then posting the stuff that supports his position. So I try to take it with massive grains of salt and try to verify myself where I can...."

Which, any such 'accepted' perception repeated from that place can only result in...

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Old 06-01-2021, 10:35 AM   #4059
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I'm not convinced either way on this point, as there has been much discussion about lower transmissibility with kids, but I've not seen any hard numbers on this. Data in our schools here seems to indicate transmissibility is lower, but not insignificant.
Transmissibility by kids definitely is not insignificant. And even if it is lower than transmissibility by adults, it is still imperative that kids get vaccinated.

In many states, if infections rise above a certain level, restrictions will be put in place. It doesn't matter whether any of us believes (correctly or incorrectly) that the risk level is tolerable if the infections are disproportionately among younger people who are unlikely to get seriously ill or die.

That fact alone is enough to make me eager to get kids vaccinated as soon as possible.
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Old 06-01-2021, 10:43 AM   #4060
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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I am just struggling to figure out what the point is, if they are unlikely to get it, has almost no impact if/when they do, and are not considered meaningful risk factors to continue the spread or mutation of it, especially if the adult population gets vaccinated thus minimizing community spread greatly.
I'm well aware that my personal anecdotes are not data, but I find the bolded a little tough to swallow. I had COVID before vaccines were available, and I'm nearly certain that I caught it from my daughter. I wasn't hospitalized, but I was sicker than I have been in at least a decade.

It probably will be difficult or impossible to vaccinate kids that regularly interact with parents, extended family, teachers, etc. who are not vaccinated. In other words, if you don't want (or can't be bothered) to get vaccinated as an adult, then you probably don't want (or don't care if) the children around you to get vaccinated either.

Last edited by Rococo; 06-01-2021 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 06-01-2021, 09:30 PM   #4061
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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It probably will be difficult or impossible to vaccinate kids that regularly interact with parents, extended family, teachers, etc. who are not vaccinated. In other words, if you don't want (or can't be bothered) to get vaccinated as an adult, then you probably don't want (or don't care if) the children around you to get vaccinated either.
On that note, BC takes what I believe is a rather unique approach to this IMO:

Quote:
What is the Infants Act?

The Infants Act explains the legal position of children under 19 years of age.

One of the topics covered in the Infants Act is the health care of children. The Infants Act states that children may consent to a medical treatment on their own as long as the health care provider is sure that the treatment is in the child’s best interest, and that the child understands the details of the treatment, including risks and benefits. It is up to the health care provider to assess and ensure the child’s understanding of the treatment.

For more information on the Infants Act, visit http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/...atreg/96223_01.

What is “mature minor consent”?

A child under the age of 19 is called a “minor”. "Mature minor consent" is the consent a child gives to receive health care after the child has been assessed by a health care provider as having the necessary understanding to give the consent. A child who is assessed by a health care provider as being capable to give consent is called a "mature minor".

A child who is a mature minor may make their own health care decisions independent of their parents’ or guardians’ wishes. In B.C. there is no set age when a child is considered capable to give consent.

A health care provider can accept consent from the child and provide the treatment without getting consent from the parent or guardian if the health care provider is sure that the child understands:

- The need for the treatment
- What the treatment involves and
- The benefits and risks of having the treatment
https://www.healthlinkbc.ca/healthli...d-immunization

And this isn't something new for Covid; I believe it has been in place since 2008.
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Old 06-01-2021, 11:59 PM   #4062
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Never forget

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Old 06-02-2021, 12:03 AM   #4063
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Yup. Never forget that when we're in a pandemic, expert advice changes as we learn more. Although I'm not sure who would forget common sense like that.
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Old 06-02-2021, 07:58 AM   #4064
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I can't even imagine what sort of garbage I would find if I scrolled through PardonAssange@LaLaLarueFrench75
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Old 06-02-2021, 08:27 AM   #4065
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Just ask the campfire dude - he will never forget.
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Old 06-02-2021, 08:59 AM   #4066
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Yup. Never forget that when we're in a pandemic, expert advice changes as we learn more. Although I'm not sure who would forget common sense like that.
Too be fair that is one of the only legit criticisms against Fauci and the CDC from that time frame.

Most of the others do in fact fall under the 'science evolves with data' and it really is stupid to try and quote a Fauci or CDC position 'pre data' with one 'post data', as Rand Paul and others try to do, suggesting that any 'change in position' proves they were wrong or not to be trusted. It is because they will change with data they are to be trusted.

But the early 'mask' position I am quite sure was an early compromise with the Trump Team, who were so fearful of any shaking of public confidence making the Stock Market come down or crash in the run up to the election that they took this total anti-mask position and got Fauci and the CDC on board, by I think using the threat of the number of deaths that happen when jobs are lost type data.


At the time Fauci was stating that there was no data, (happy to be proven wrong here but I have looked and looked) that masks did not work.

At best you could take a neutral position and even then the neutral position should understand there is no downside to wearing a mask and finding out you did not need it after. There is a ton of downside to not wearing it and finding out you should have all along.
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Old 06-02-2021, 12:59 PM   #4067
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

You hate to see it

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Old 06-02-2021, 01:13 PM   #4068
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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At best you could take a neutral position and even then the neutral position should understand there is no downside to wearing a mask and finding out you did not need it after. There is a ton of downside to not wearing it and finding out you should have all along.
Actually, there is a pretty huge potential downside to people rushing out and snapping up all the masks they can find.early in a pandemic, when you're concerned about supplies of medical equipment.
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Old 06-02-2021, 01:44 PM   #4069
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Actually, there is a pretty huge potential downside to people rushing out and snapping up all the masks they can find.early in a pandemic, when you're concerned about supplies of medical equipment.
Agreed.

But that is terrible spin if the pretense now is 'Dr Fauci and the CDC were lying in saying that masks would not work, in an attempt to make sure the mask supply was protected for First responders'. (not saying that is what you are doing)

That simply was not reality. The US was not doing anything to try and gather up PPE during those months. I was buying N95 masks on Amazon and sending them to family members until they foolishly bought the lie and told me 'masks don't work'.

I was more than a little exasperated at them so easily putting aside common sense and continued to buy anyway since they were so readily available.

Charities were gathering up tons of them and shipping them, via Trumps state department planes back to China. An indictment on the blindness of the Trump team to not see the danger that the country that was the source of the PPE (China) was basically taking it all back, meaning there would be nothing soon left in America.

When in March there was finally an admission that masks worked and were needed, the former denial then swung over to shame. We, citizens, were not to use N95 as they were much needed by first responders. You would get looked at as selfish if you wore one. Thus the 'smart' and 'prepared' now had to not use them because everyone else CHOSE to be dumb on this.

I ended up donating all my N95 masks except for 1 to the local fire hall near my condo.


I can only hope the lesson learned is that 'yes science evolves but until it does you err on the side of caution and common sense'. At the next viral, respiratory pandemic you start FIRST with what I would call an over cautious approach, (masks, distancing, hand washing) and then you exclude things (such as hand washing is now basically excluded as key for covid) as you learn more. As the science evolves.

This is the approach the most successful Asian countries took due to their experiences and we need to learn from it.

I won't hate on Fauci for that one as I think the pressure from the Trump Admin was immense and unprecedented, and they made the case for 'compromise' while probably telling Fauci and crew if the economy collapsed it (and all the deaths from that) would be on them, if they did not find a way to play ball. I think the public health officials were thrust in to the role of also considering the Politics of it, which they should never be forced to do.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:16 PM   #4070
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I believed then, and I still believe now, that early advice around masks was given (not just by Fauci, and not just in the US) for a few reasons:

1) They were not viewed as being especially effective
2) Worries about PPE shortage
3) Concern that people would not take other measures as seriously

Obviously the thinking on 1) shifted over time, and 2) eased over time. I think 3) is still an issue today, and the "masks, masks, masks" mantra has the potential to be harmful in future outbreaks and/or pandemics (which hopefully we'll never see, but I don't want to assume anything), just in that some people seem to be treating them as the most important precaution when I think there are far more important measures for both the public and our health care professionals - distancing, staying home when sick, working from home, contact tracing, etc. For example, I'm still blown away that there are so many places with outdoor mask mandates. Wearing masks outdoors in busy/crowded environments makes some sense to me - having to wear one all the time doesn't, except under extreme circumstances IMO.

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This is the approach the most successful Asian countries took due to their experiences and we need to learn from it.
I think we need to be careful about drawing too many firm conclusions early from country comparisons, but there's definitely some (and likely a lot) of truth to this. So my mind remains open to the possibility that masks are far more important than I'm suggesting above.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:26 PM   #4071
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

I like to believe that if tomorrow we have a new Pandemic Respiratory virus where they are UNSURE if the main transmission is breath or contact or both, that we will start with 'masks' and 'hand washing' and 'distancing' as the default and then remove any/all of them as the science proves they are unnecessary.

Seems a much better default position than starting with none of them and then only adding them once you have mass death.

I am not concerned with PPE shortages, if the default is to do nothing to gain, gather or shore up PPE by the gov't in the interim. Better citizens horde it then it get bought and shipped over seas, as happened.

I think it is exactly because of the 'masks don't work', 'now they do' messaging that people did in fact lose confidence and not take measures seriously. Again something I think works better the other way around by starting with mask and losing it after, if not needed.


I am not that critical of Fauci and the CDC overall as i know Trump Admin put them in a horrible spot and I think they hoped (like too many) that they could manage the beast. But as Trump does so masterfully he gets everyone on side his positions/fabrications/lies at the beginning in the form of some type of compromise or loose defense but then once they take that bait and get hooked he demands more and more concessions and deeper involvement and complicity until the other person is corrupted. I am not complimentary of Trump but he does run a Master Class on subversions of others.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:58 PM   #4072
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Earlier adoption of masks would have helped. But when they write the post-mortem on the U.S. response, I suspect that the most serious error will be the failure to implement more serious restrictions during the last week of February and the first two weeks of March. That was the critical window when the genie really got out of the bottle. COVID would have swept the country no matter what. But the worst of it would have been less acute and less taxing on health services if serious restrictions had been put in place during that period.

And the whole thing would have been less scary for people. Fear breeds irrational behavior and policy in both directions.
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Old 06-02-2021, 05:51 PM   #4073
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Unless you have plenty of tuna on hand there's really no optimal way to herd cats. I can't count the times I heard people saying something to the effect "I'll wear a mask" to justify going into an environment that maybe they wouldn't have without a mask, not really understanding that the masks don't do much. As one immunologist put it: all the covid particles in the entire world wouldn't even fill a coffee can. I wouldn't call that intuitive. Hard to say but masks may have caused more transmissions than they prevented if wearing them netted an increase in risk.
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Old 06-02-2021, 06:48 PM   #4074
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
Actually, there is a pretty huge potential downside to people rushing out and snapping up all the masks they can find.early in a pandemic, when you're concerned about supplies of medical equipment.
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Agreed.

But that is terrible spin if the pretense now is 'Dr Fauci and the CDC were lying in saying that masks would not work, in an attempt to make sure the mask supply was protected for First responders'. (not saying that is what you are doing)

That simply was not reality. The US was not doing anything to try and gather up PPE during those months.
Certainly in the UK I was pointing out at the time that policy was beign driven by the reality of what could be done. That included PPE/mask advice because they were short of supplies. I dont seriously doubt the same effect in the USA, WHO etc as well. The fact the idiots weren't also doing everything possible to increase supply/availability is sadly not evidence of anything in this regard.

What happens is a translation between expert advice that an option is impossible in practice, to the political advice that it's not desirable. The terrible spin now is the pretense that things could have been done that were simply impossible at the time. Terrible because it goes against the very real need to be prepared for things to go very badly wrong.
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Old 06-02-2021, 06:56 PM   #4075
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by John21 View Post
Unless you have plenty of tuna on hand there's really no optimal way to herd cats. I can't count the times I heard people saying something to the effect "I'll wear a mask" to justify going into an environment that maybe they wouldn't have without a mask, not really understanding that the masks don't do much. As one immunologist put it: all the covid particles in the entire world wouldn't even fill a coffee can. I wouldn't call that intuitive. Hard to say but masks may have caused more transmissions than they prevented if wearing them netted an increase in risk.
This is the problem and it's a very hard conversation to have. The fact masks work in lessoning the risk of gettign infected in a given situation may well not be anywhwere enar enough to outweigh people getting into situation wearing masks they wouldn't have done without one.

I dont know what or how evidence of this is produced but the anecdotal experience I have screams that people would have been much safer if masks didn't exist.
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