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Old 05-19-2021, 04:27 PM   #4026
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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So I watched your CDC announcement yesterday and kudos to the USA on not having to wear masks.
In reality though it's still masks pretty much everywhere indoors(unless you're actually outdoors and not just on your way inside somewhere) from what I see out in the wild here. Personally I'm kinda done especially now that the weather's warm and ready to say goodbye to them.
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Old 05-19-2021, 04:29 PM   #4027
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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In reality though it's still masks pretty much everywhere indoors(unless you're actually outdoors and not just on your way inside somewhere) from what I see out in the wild here. Personally I'm kinda done especially now that the weather's warm and ready to say goodbye to them.
I heard Vegas casinos have dropped the masks? Here in Canada we got a ways to go still . Hoping the border opens by July 1
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Old 05-19-2021, 05:36 PM   #4028
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Yeah was at bellagio and masks are voluntary now . I think it was if you’re vaccinated , you no longer need to wear one . And no body wears it anymore except the staff
It was actually the busiest I’ve ever seen vegas. Hopefully ny is next
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Old 05-20-2021, 11:06 AM   #4029
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

yeah we are all going to simply decide that Covid is over after memorial day.. you can pretty much see that writing on the wall.
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Old 05-20-2021, 12:14 PM   #4030
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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yeah we are all going to simply decide that Covid is over after memorial day.. you can pretty much see that writing on the wall.
Covid officially over here in Cali on June 15th. So, if I don't catch Covid by Flag Day (June 14th), I won't ever again have to worry about getting it.
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Old 05-20-2021, 08:35 PM   #4031
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Covid officially over here in Cali on June 15th. So, if I don't catch Covid by Flag Day (June 14th), I won't ever again have to worry about getting it.
LOL at California randomly deciding that COVID will continue for an extra month after the CDC changed their guidance. WhY dOn'T tHeY bElIeVe In ScIeNcE?
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Old 05-21-2021, 06:21 AM   #4032
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

If Indian variant gets a foothold in Yanklandia, there will be problems.
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Old 05-21-2021, 06:27 AM   #4033
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

It's not an 'if' is it? Just a 'when'

[Ignoring the possibility it will be some other more sucessful variant pushing the Indian one aside].
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Old 05-21-2021, 07:05 AM   #4034
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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If Indian variant gets a foothold in Yanklandia, there will be problems.
Why, is it thought to be a lot more problematic than other variants? We've had that variant in Canada for months, and cases are coming down sharply now as vaccinations accelerate.

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It's not an 'if' is it? Just a 'when'

[Ignoring the possibility it will be some other more sucessful variant pushing the Indian one aside].
As long as the vaccines continue to be effective against the variants, I think it's very much an "if".
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Old 05-21-2021, 07:18 AM   #4035
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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As long as the vaccines continue to be effective against the variants, I think it's very much an "if".
It's looking very hopeful on the vaccine front but it can still hit the unvaccinated hard.

Maybe I'm wrong but I gather the USA has far too people who wont take the vaccine to make it anyhting but a 'when'.
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Old 05-21-2021, 07:54 AM   #4036
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Why, is it thought to be a lot more problematic than other variants?
It is outcompeting the Kent variant in the UK, the Kent variant is no slouch. So it extremely transmissible.

The problem (degree of problem is debatable sure) is that if it very very highly transmissible, then the % of unvaccinated + % that still get ill even though vaccinated can probably lead to a wave significant enough to put some strain on health care systems.

Fully vaccinated in the USA (one of the best vaccinators) is only 37%.

One dose =47%.
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Old 05-21-2021, 09:37 AM   #4037
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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It's looking very hopeful on the vaccine front but it can still hit the unvaccinated hard.

Maybe I'm wrong but I gather the USA has far too people who wont take the vaccine to make it anyhting but a 'when'.
I think we would all have to agree on a definition of "foothold" to make this more meaningful.

I take "foothold" to mean 'a place of initial penetration that acts as an anchor for Nationwide or State wide 'largely uncontainable' and serious spread'.

I think the bolded is very key there.

If vaccinations rates are high enough I think we could see those populations act as a fire break during Wild fire outbreaks.

Yes the virus will get in to unvaccinated populations, reek some havoc there, but struggle to keep an R high enough to continue its damage as it hits those fire breaks or vaccinated people.

So much like the Flu each year, where we get the seasonal outbreak and not every region is hit as hard and some not at all. It never achieves National or even full State threat levels as the vaccinated provide that R, break.

The big issue here that i see though is, that these unvaccinated pockets, will continue to provide fertile ground for the virus, slamming into these fire break people, to evolve variants to break thru that wall and then cause the type of uncontained spread that makes countries have to re-institute shut down measures as the race to out vaccine (booster shot) the virus is engaged.

It is the very people who decry shutdowns who are making it the most likely that we may live with them forever as rotating required return procedures to provide some 'cooling' of the hot spots as the new booster is brought to market.
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Old 05-21-2021, 09:40 AM   #4038
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Sadly what I am pointing to above is again how the dumbest amongst us (anti vaxxers, covid deniers) can take a defacto leadership position that only allows the rest of us to counter and try to out flank them to protect everyone, including them.


And also to my point above as to another reason the firewall might be very affective is that the people least likely to vaccine are almost certainly on the lowest end of 'mobility' it the country. Less likely to be State hoping as often. Least likely to be attending mass events outside their community. So that speaks to the high burn in their community but lower ability to jump, i theorize.
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Old 05-21-2021, 11:21 AM   #4039
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Plenty of dumb, plenty dishonesty to go around.

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Old 05-21-2021, 01:15 PM   #4040
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
I think we would all have to agree on a definition of "foothold" to make this more meaningful.

I take "foothold" to mean 'a place of initial penetration that acts as an anchor for Nationwide or State wide 'largely uncontainable' and serious spread'.

I think the bolded is very key there.
No chance of it being uncontainable if that's the standard.
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Old 05-21-2021, 01:19 PM   #4041
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

R in the UK is back above 1.
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Old 05-21-2021, 01:38 PM   #4042
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
R in the UK is back above 1.
Inevitable* as we opened up before younger people were vaccinated. This time though the question is far more about serious illness than about infections.


*well maybe not with a great track, trace & surge vaccination program but I'm discounting that a lot.
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Old 05-21-2021, 04:41 PM   #4043
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
It's looking very hopeful on the vaccine front but it can still hit the unvaccinated hard.

Maybe I'm wrong but I gather the USA has far too people who wont take the vaccine to make it anyhting but a 'when'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
It is outcompeting the Kent variant in the UK, the Kent variant is no slouch. So it extremely transmissible.

The problem (degree of problem is debatable sure) is that if it very very highly transmissible, then the % of unvaccinated + % that still get ill even though vaccinated can probably lead to a wave significant enough to put some strain on health care systems.

Fully vaccinated in the USA (one of the best vaccinators) is only 37%.

One dose =47%.
Sure, there's a risk - I was mostly taking (slight) issue with the degree that was being portrayed.

I'm not as concerned with any one variant in particular as I am about vaccine uptake in some areas, especially when you factor in easing restrictions. Even if a given state or region keeps restrictions tighter because their vaccination rate is low, the general public are tired of all this, and I'm concerned they'll just go ahead and behave as if the lifted restrictions elsewhere apply to them as well. Same applies here in Canada and anywhere else if vaccination % varies greatly by region.
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Old 05-21-2021, 05:47 PM   #4044
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Originally Posted by Bobo Fett View Post
Sure, there's a risk - I was mostly taking (slight) issue with the degree that was being portrayed.

I'm not as concerned with any one variant in particular as I am about vaccine uptake in some areas, especially when you factor in easing restrictions. Even if a given state or region keeps restrictions tighter because their vaccination rate is low, the general public are tired of all this, and I'm concerned they'll just go ahead and behave as if the lifted restrictions elsewhere apply to them as well. Same applies here in Canada and anywhere else if vaccination % varies greatly by region.
Well that is really the point in the UK, the Indian variant (of which there are 3 not sure how much mileage varies between them) has just got its "foothold" just as we are relaxing our mitigations massively, with a highly politicised goal of complete relaxation, no masks, no social distancing etc, less than a month away.
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Old 05-22-2021, 07:52 PM   #4045
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Here is a fun paper by some smart fellows at MIT:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.07993.pdf...RtxkKs8i9rZzBY

Quote:
These findings suggest that the ability for the scientific community and public health departments to better convey the urgency
of the US coronavirus pandemic may not be strengthened by introducing more downloadable datasets, by producing “better visualizations” (e.g., graphics that are more intuitive or efficient), or
by educating people on how to better interpret them. This study
shows that there is a fundamental epistemological conflict between
maskers and anti-maskers, who use the same data but come to
such different conclusions. As science and technology studies (STS)
scholars have shown, data is not a neutral substrate that can be used
for good or for ill [14, 46, 84]. Indeed, anti-maskers often reveal
themselves to be more sophisticated in their understanding of how
scientific knowledge is socially constructed than their ideological
adversaries, who espouse naive realism about the “objective” truth
of public health data.
Quantitative data is culturally and historically situated; the manner in which it is collected, analyzed, and
interpreted reflects a deeper narrative that is bolstered by the collective effervescence found within social media communities. Put
differently, there is no such thing as dispassionate or objective data
analysis. Instead, there are stories: stories shaped by cultural logics, animated by personal experience, and entrenched by collective
action. This story is about how a public health crisis—refracted
through seemingly objective numbers and data visualizations—is
part of a broader battleground about scientific epistemology and
democracy in modern American life.
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Old 05-24-2021, 02:16 PM   #4046
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

Faster than a PCR test: dogs detect Covid in under a second

Faster than PCR and more accurate than lateral flow tests, the latest weapons against Covid-19 have four legs and a wet nose.

A study published on Monday found that people who are infected with coronavirus give off a distinct odour, which these highly trained dogs can detect with pinpoint precision...

Tala is one of six dogs who took part in the Covid study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. It found that dogs could detect Covid-19 on clothing worn by infected people with up to 94.3% sensitivity: they would correctly identify 94 out of every 100 infected people. This compares with a sensitivity of 58-77% for lateral flow tests, and 97.2% for PCR tests.

However, dogs beat PCR tests on speed, making a diagnosis in under a second. “This includes people who are asymptomatic and also people with a low viral load,” ...
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Old 05-24-2021, 02:18 PM   #4047
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

^^^Could be the best form of Vaccine passport.
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Old 05-25-2021, 09:40 AM   #4048
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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Old 05-26-2021, 09:46 AM   #4049
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

As someone who supports the current vaccine efforts I am struggling with the logic (or lack thereof around this)???




From what I am seeing in the empirical evidence people under 20 represent a rounding error at best in catching and transmitting covid. The risk is near statistical zero.

So what is the logic and want behind pushing to vaccinate them other than an absolute one that we are chasing 'zero' even if zero is never going to be achieved?

Now if perhaps the argument was 'we are trying to eradicate covid and reach zero in our society so that it is gone, ...no more' I could maybe make the leap that this group is important. But given that it seems almost a certainty already that yearly boosters and potentially new vaccines for problematic variants may be required like a yearly flu shot why would we start a 1 year old, who gets almost zero benefit between ages 1-2 on a yearly vaccination routine?

It seems to me that the raw data suggests that anyone under 20 should not be vaccinated but those yearly vaccines (if required) should begin thereafter.

And yes, I do believe we always have to be aware and concerned about a parallel profit motive by big Pharma that may run parallel to the public health motive and utilize concern to boost profits.

Thoughts?
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Old 05-26-2021, 02:25 PM   #4050
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Re: Covid-19, lockdowns and reopenings

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From what I am seeing in the empirical evidence people under 20 represent a rounding error at best in catching and transmitting covid. The risk is near statistical zero.
Rather than addressing the rest of your post, I think it's best to start here, as the foundation of your logic seems deeply flawed. I have no idea where you're getting this "rounding error" idea, unless you're relying simply on the one graph you posted about one small time range in one health region. Looking at the BC Covid Dashboard, 10.6% of BC Covid cases are in the 10-19 age group, which makes up 12.7% of our population. Even the 0-9 age group has 5.6% of the cases - significantly lower than the 10% they represent of the population, but still far from a rounding error. Nationally, the 0-19 age group represents 18.8% of Canadian cases, an even higher percentage than in BC (16.2%). So while they appear to be less susceptible to Covid than other age groups (which is why they were at the bottom of the priority list), there are far too many cases in that age group to be simply skipped.

I should add, rereading your post I see that you said "catching and transmitting" - I know I've heard before that some experts feel transmission from kids is lower, so that also needs to be factored in to prioritization. But I don't think that changes things to the point where they can be left out of vaccinations, unless you have data to show otherwise.
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