Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
It's looking very hopeful on the vaccine front but it can still hit the unvaccinated hard.
Maybe I'm wrong but I gather the USA has far too people who wont take the vaccine to make it anyhting but a 'when'.
I think we would all have to agree on a definition of "foothold" to make this more meaningful.
I take "foothold" to mean 'a place of initial penetration that acts as an anchor for Nationwide or State wide '
largely uncontainable' and serious spread'.
I think the bolded is very key there.
If vaccinations rates are high enough I think we could see those populations act as a fire break during Wild fire outbreaks.
Yes the virus will get in to unvaccinated populations, reek some havoc there, but struggle to keep an R high enough to continue its damage as it hits those fire breaks or vaccinated people.
So much like the Flu each year, where we get the seasonal outbreak and not every region is hit as hard and some not at all. It never achieves National or even full State threat levels as the vaccinated provide that R, break.
The big issue here that i see though is, that these unvaccinated pockets, will continue to provide fertile ground for the virus, slamming into these fire break people, to evolve variants to break thru that wall and then cause the type of uncontained spread that makes countries have to re-institute shut down measures as the race to out vaccine (booster shot) the virus is engaged.
It is the very people who decry shutdowns who are making it the most likely that we may live with them forever as rotating required return procedures to provide some 'cooling' of the hot spots as the new booster is brought to market.