Quote:
Originally Posted by MacOneDouble
CFR pehaps, certainly not IFR. Since this is perhaps the fourth foreign country that was thrown at me, I'll raise you Chile. Military style lockdown and look at how that turned out, in terms of covid deaths for a start.
Your examples don't change anything.
All it shows is this is a novel virus where the path on how to handle it is not clear.
If you understand Risk Mitigation and the job of Public Health, you understand they MUST take the more cautious path as they await more data as opposed to the more laissez faire path.
That means when you have a Novel virus that appears at the time to be spreading massively via Social Contact (touch and breath), you try to break the chains of social contact to try and arrest and slow this.
You then do not judge that choice with results based thinking after the fact. As poker players (assuming you are or were) you should understand that even if it turns out LATER in the data that 'Social Contact' did not need to be as restricted (and I am not conceding that) you do not say it was wrong to actions prior.
The gov't and CDC's clear goal was to try and take the pressure off the health system, as increased pressure and NOT Covid itself was the main thing killing people. Covid was multitudes more survivable when the healthcare system was not overly stressed. And as such, attempting measures to affect that, was justified.
Being judged later with 'results based thinking' be damned.