You are correct sir. I misread the data. That is average daily deaths due to COVID 19.

Daily deaths have decreased. Atlanta opened the zoo (to a sell out crowd) and Botanical Gardens over the weekend. It has been a slow measured reopen in the state. Now, things are really popping back open. The next two weeks will tell the tale. But, there is no indication that even a spike in cases will be anywhere near enough to stress the Georgia healthcare system.

Curve has been flattened. I certainly understand that all high risk people should be extra careful and believe employers should do everything in their power to accomodate them.

Deaths are like a 4-5 week lagging indicator behind reopening (cases 1-2 behind, and hospitalizations 2-3 weeks behind). Of course you're not seeing a big spike in deaths right now. The people dying now got infected back in April. We won't see post-reopening deaths until June.

I've been meaning to find some time to play with the Covidtracking.com API to pull out hospitalizations reporting per day and look at trends for some of the states that have ended lockdowns, but between moving and work it hasn't happened. But it seems like it might be a useful stat to track right now, i.e. fewer issues with testing constraints or other reporting issues than tracking cases, less lag than deaths, and it's a pretty important metric.

If anyone is interested and wasn't aware of that source, I'm pretty sure it would be fairly easy to write a script to pull out data for specific states and plot a graph.

the casinos here opened at 9am to long ass lines, and were full by noon.

"people just want to get back to work..." "people just want to not starve.."

My whole read of the situation is that 300,000 Americans are going to die short of a vaccination. No matter what we do, how long we distance, the disease is going to spread.

The whole point of shelter/stay at home, I believed, was so that the hospital system did not get overwhelmed and everybody who needed treatment would get it. Worse case scenario, 600,000 people would have died due to lack of treatment.

It's a stark reality. But, we are passed the point of health care systems being overwhelmed. Why can't I open my office yet? Why can't I go have a drink at a bar? Why can't I go to the movies (I like 11 AM shows where there is no crowd anyway)?

I know there was good news on the vaccination front and Trump wants to use the army to distribute it really fast. But, it is not a guarantee. We haven't developed a vaccination for the common cold yet! Now, if a vaccination was developed and they give guidance it will take 8-12 weeks to distribute it, I would understand everyone staying home, but minimum time frame that the scientists are saying is early next year. What if we all stay home till early next year, and they say, OOPS, be the end of next year! And then at the end of next year, they say, OOPS, it mutates more than we thought. Sorry, no vaccination if forthcoming!

Curve has been flattened. Let's get back to work.

Herd immunity models show that this thing isn't really dying out unless 50-80% of the population gets infected AND is immune afterwards. With a IFR of 0.5% that's a minimum of almost 900,000 dead in the USA. Your numbers are very low, and we are nowhere near the point where enough people have already been sick that we won't overwhelm our hospitals like you fear.

Meanwhile, South Korea is doing it right, and they're opening up more.

My first instinct after seeing those numbers was to offer to take the over on 800,000 by Dec 31st at evens, but then I realised that it was going to be a total head**** arguing about which sources to use, lyin' media over-counting to make daddy look bad, hopitals gettin' paid 10 gazillion per death they classify as Covid, etc. etc.

I get some of your logic here and I am still skeptical on the vaccine front.

What baffles me is we know this disease has a greater effect on people with underlying conditions the main one being obesity. Yet no conversations about what people can do for that.


Its tough for folks that have no income and bills to pay listen to a reporter working from home making 6 figures say were all in this together

They will argue the death rate for years. But, it makes no difference if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. It will be what it will be.

Since there is no clarity on vaccination, time to go back to work.

Every state is starting to open to a degree. Most things will be open by September, just as cold weather returns! Stop the economic pain. The government can't bridge things for ever.

If only they could find 2 trillion dollars to give to people and businesses to help out during the lockdown. That'd be literally 6,000 dollars per man woman and child in the country. Oh, wait, they did find it, where's all that gone then?

Do you think South Korea, the Czech Republic, Australia, and Vietnam will all have per capita death rates equal to ours?

Stimulus checks of $1,200. PPP loans of 666 Billions. Money to states. Money to save airlines. Money to save Boeing.

Most of the money spent was designed to save jobs and keep companies afloat. But, 20% of your calculation went to peoples pockets.

We really going to live in a country with no airlines when we return? Let all the private businesses fail? Let the unemployment number get to 100,000,000 plus?

So these businesses that have been saved, surely they must be paying their employees to wait it out. Or what did they do with the money?

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what common sense dictates.

Also, it would have been nice if the government actually did make a good faith attempt to bridge the gap. Instead they just gave trillions to people who needed it the least. wtf. I mean.....it's like opposite day every day now.

I will trust South Korea's testing and numbers.

I will not trust the Vietnam, Czech Republic and Australia will have had the same level of diagnosis after the fact.

and, 100 people just got infected in South Korea due to fitness classes! I also do not know the demographic differences in those countries vs. ours. Is their population older or younger? Do they smoke more or less? Do they have higher rate of diabettes or less? Higher rate of obseity or less?

People that this is hitting hard is those risk groups. So, to compare one country to another you have to take demographics in account. Once again, this will be debated for years after the fact and CDC and WHO will determine who did it right and who did it wrong.

For all we know, if Sweden is virus free at the end of the year, they might say they did it right.

D2-e4, if you were a private business and took the PPP money it could only be used for payroll or rents/utilities.

If it was used to bolster balance sheet, it needs to be repaid.

And, go ahead. Let the airlines fail. That's a wonderful solution. Look, they acted fast and Congressional response wasn't perfect, but for something this massive, they did a pretty decent job of allocating funds.

38 million people in Seoul alone. Population density is probably pretty high.

I just don't get how right wingers can argue both sides of this - on the one hand, everyone is starving and needs to go to work to pay their bills, on the other hand, we gave companies a ****load of money so they could pay their employees. Which is it?

If you want cases rather than deaths, SK vs. USA, I'm down.

Companies eligible for PPP assistance were able to borrow 2.5 times payroll and use the money for payroll.

Without the PPP loans, the unemployment numbers would be far worse.

And mega companies that got bailouts, its kind of gross. There should be moral hazard. You didn't have 12 months operations cash on the balance sheet, cause you implemented massive stock buy backs so you could hit your bonus? Well, ****, but okay, here's 50 Billion. But, what's the alternative? Just let those companies fail?

I'm not going to bet on COVID, but after the fact will certainly acknowledge you were right if South Korea did things differently and got a better health and economic outcome than we did.

Ruth's Chris got 20 million dollars from taxpayers at 1% after the first 6 months.

What are we supposed to do ?
Live without steaks sizzling in butter ?

Construction firms got almost 34 bill in 1% loans free for the first 6 months.
Construction firms of course are still working as they're essential.

Best stimulus bill ever.

Hey, and the barbers who've been out of work for months all got 1200 to pay for their ACA care.

Thanks Trump. You're swell.