Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Total cases is irrelevant to what we are trying to achieve. Hospitalizations is what flattening the curve was about.
Certainly, I would like to see total cases go down. If they go down, all hospitals will be safe. But, flattening the curve was not about waiting for a vaccine it was about slowing the spread so the hospital system could absorb the problem. I don't see hospital systems having serious problems. If I were in Houston, I would be concerned and perhaps revert some opening policies.
Flattening the curve and then crushing the curve, as most EU countries have now done along with China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, etc. was not only about slowing the spread so the hospitals wouldn't be overrun.
And it wasn't specifically about stalling so that a vaccine could be developed in order to save lives and completely re-open the economy. Because that would be financially catastrophic.
There are several other reasons that are important as well.
It allows time to develop treatments for Covid that could save lives (which has actually happened).
But perhaps most importantly it allows for time to ramp up testing so that contact tracing can be employed successfully. For the states that have taken advantage of this opportunity (like NY, NJ, CT, VT, NH, RI, and hopefully MI and PA) this enables them to open up their economies with the ability to know where outbreaks are occurring so that they can be dealt with locally. Without this states will find that they will have no idea where Covid is out of control until their hospitals get flooded (and they will get flooded).
The best analogy i have heard about this is forest fires. If you have the ability to know where small brush fires are then you can put them out before they become raging forest fires.
Opening up the economy too soon (i.e. before you have the ability to test anybody who needs a test either because they have symptoms or because they potentially came in contact with somebody who has symptoms) will constantly set you back to the point where you have to shut down again to "flatten the curve" because of the flood of hospitalizations.