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Covid-19 Discussion Covid-19 Discussion

07-07-2020 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Hospitals can reconfigure. A hospital at full capacity for ICU, doesn't mean they can't put beds in other areas.

You have a 20-25% buffer beyond full capacity.

Any area that is pushing on normal capacity (not the buffer) should immediately revert to shutdown. Houston is doing that now. They think they have two weeks till normal capacity is reached. Probably gives them 3-4 weeks to address the problem.

Whack a Mole
How long do you think a lockdown needs to continue to whack each mole? From what we’ve seen so far, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that it takes 3/4 months of lockdown to get cases to down far enough to manage, and then 1/2 months after opening to be able to tell where things are escalating.

Do you think it’s better for cities/states to be on constant edge like this in up and down cycles? Businesses need certainty to operate, there are huge costs in “staffing up” again at unpredictable times.

Anecdotally, in Texas, it was a real whiplash for multiple families I know as to going back to work, arranging their lives and routines as if that were about to happen, and then getting snapped back to their house like two weeks later. And that’s for people with office jobs- I cant even imagine how terrible that is for the service industry workers that shut downs primarily affect.
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07-07-2020 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Hospitals can reconfigure. A hospital at full capacity for ICU, doesn't mean they can't put beds in other areas.

You have a 20-25% buffer beyond full capacity.

Any area that is pushing on normal capacity (not the buffer) should immediately revert to shutdown. Houston is doing that now. They think they have two weeks till normal capacity is reached. Probably gives them 3-4 weeks to address the problem.

Whack a Mole
Reconfiguring leads to deaths. You get people outside of the jobs they usually do, and they aren't going to be as good as it.

On top of that, losing elective surgeries comes as a huge cost. People think of elective surgeries as stuff like cosmetic surgery, but in reality they're cancer biopsies, joint replacements, cardiac surgeries, etc.

You also remain flat wrong about what flattening the curve means. Stop getting your news from shitty right wing people.
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07-07-2020 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
When the states stopped elective surgeries (other than abortion, thank you Gretchen Whitmer), alot of nurses and doctors were laid off.

Shouldn't be a problem to staff up.
Do you seriously not realize how insanely stupid it is to think 'oh any nurse can be effective in the ICU'?
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07-07-2020 , 07:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Florida and Texas should be fine. Hospitalizations don't seem much of a concern. Faucci came out and said the average age of people contracting COVID is 15 years younger now.

I think the masks are a good step. Texas demanded it and certain parts of Florida are fining those that don't wear them.

Not opening at all will cause more devastation, economically and socially. Alcholism going up, suicide going up, abused children going up. On and on and on. We should be working on solutions to open safely as quickly as possible. Should be the goal of all citizens. Going to be really sad if most of the country doesn't open the schools in the fall. Another semester of slower development (emotional and educational) for our youngsters.
We had the opportunity to address it more effectively. We blew it. That horse left the barn ages ago--we're off on a completely different trip now.
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07-07-2020 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
That makes zero sense.

The media says it was behavior like crowded graduation parties. You look at the protests it was the same behavior! And, we all saw the clips on the news, everyone was not wearing a mask.

When the narrative makes no logical sense, it has to be discarded.

Now, I am starting to get pissed at people for having zero common sense. Reopening the economy does not mean going to crowded parties! Social distancing should still be applied! Certain things, like getting a hair cut, you can't distance, understood, so both people should wear a mask. But, should be able to safely open most offices while maintaining 6 feet of distance. No reason to go to the beach, the lake or a party and get within 6 feet of each other. People have gone bonkers.

Little bit of common sense would go a long way!
Mask compliance was extraordinarily high at the protests. The lack of fallout from the protests illuminates even further how dumb all the anti masking people are. As the protests demonstrate mask compliance has a huge impact on the spread of the virus.
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07-07-2020 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
Just because they're aren't as bad as indoor events, doesn't mean that thousands of them don't add up to significantly more infections than there would be without the protests at all. When the WHO and CDC admit spread is from airborne particles as well, it will be even more obvious.
Good thing the overwhelming majority of protesters are smart enough to know wearing a mask is important.

Imagine if they gathered in big groups and scream and yelled without masks!
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07-07-2020 , 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by WaitingOnAP
I gotta say it makes me deeply uncomfortable to see someone say a mom killed her child when it's only maybe true.
Seems pretty true from a gross negligence standard. She tried to kill her child in multiple different ways.
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07-07-2020 , 07:54 PM
Unsurprisingly, Smudger is completely full of ****.





https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-s...ecutive-order/

Quote:
A growing number of sheriffs in Texas say they are refusing to follow a recent executive order requiring masks in public. Governor Greg Abbott's mandate aims to slow the spread of coronavirus, as cases in the state soared past 200,000 on Tuesday.

Police officials in at least nine counties — including Denton, Houston, Montgomery, Gillespie, Upshur, Kerr, Gregg, Nacogdoches and Panola — said they will not impose the ruling with verbal or written citations. Some counties cited staffing issues, while others said the language in the order makes it impossible to police.
So, uh, yes, hospitals are already slammed as things continue to get worse, and Texas's mask order is not being enforced.
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07-07-2020 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Not opening at all will cause more devastation, economically and socially. Alcholism going up, suicide going up, abused children going up. On and on and on. We should be working on solutions to open safely as quickly as possible. Should be the goal of all citizens. Going to be really sad if most of the country doesn't open the schools in the fall. Another semester of slower development (emotional and educational) for our youngsters.
This is a sentiment that has been raised since February / March yet it is wholly unproven and unsupported. We don’t have any actual data on long term lockdowns and their side effects. It is pure conjecture and speculation. On top of that it is than being argued it is guaranteed to be worse than the virus. There is no substance to it.

Not to mention we live in an amazingly unique time where the ability to interact from a distance is incredibly advanced.

You can’t just take symptoms from “isolation” studies and then extrapolate them to a large scale lockdown like this.

So what previous long term lockdown in America was your data collected? Was it in the last ten years? Because technology has vastly changed that reality in that time.

Looking forward to your answer.
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07-07-2020 , 08:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Well, car crashes are going down.

Anyway, when do you say Florida and Texas are not doing "fine?" You are literally the only one who even gives any specifics (most others just do hit and run posting of cherry picked data and avoid this topic). What would cause you to evaluate those states and decide - hmm, maybe they aint doing so good after all. I assume total numbers of cases are irrelevant to your assessment?

If that happens, and things get bad (even to your definitions) what should they do at that time? Think this Republican convention should take place? After all, Florida is doing fine.

All the best.
Smudger remains ignorant of how the virus spreads and grows so his saying “It’s fine“ is pretty meaningless. It is like someone declaring New York is fine in late February.

You have to actually factor in how the virus grows and what is being done to mitigate it. Mitigation efforts are so so now in Texas after the Governor completely screwed the pooch. Treatment for the virus seems to have advanced in a general sense, which is also good news. The lower average age? Great.

All that together, though, does not change the fact that it is already too late to stop what will happen in Florida and Texas and all we can do is aggressively try to take action and limit how long it is at maximum impact.

It is unfortunate that people keep coming up with excuse after excuse for why they can continue to remain parked on the train track. Smudger is okay with Covid deaths because someone at home might drink more.

Obviously there is a good blueprint to getting through this and America refuses to use it. We can provide financial assistance to people who need it during this time. We can aggressively push mandatory mask compliance when people have a necessary reason to be outside. We can lock things down. We can finally get enough testing so everyone can be tested regularly. We can get the spread down to a low enough number to have a controlled reopening with comprehensive tracking and tracing. It is not brain surgery. Nobody is doing almost any of those things let alone most or all, in the US. But we will be fine. Lol.

This was the obvious blueprint in March yet here we are in July facing record infections and hospitalizations daily.
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07-07-2020 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
So your position is that since everyone will get it just get it already, and meh, who cares what happens, it will happen anyway?

Let me toss out some theoretical math for you to consider and likely ignore. Let us pretend Trump embraced this in the way that Canada did. A coordinated effort on the federal and provincial (similar to state) and municipal level that did not politicize this virus. Masks were not demonized etc. The curve has been crushed in Canada, whereas in the USA #1 its out of control, so safe to assume that if Trump adopted the Canadian approach the numbers of cases would have been down a lot. Even you would agree on that.

OK, with that done, the next question would be - will someone who got this in April be in the same situation as an identical person who gets it in November or April 2021? You think there will be some treatments in place? If so, then wouldn't people rather get this at a later time when the effects can be mitigated in a greater manner, so you have fewer deaths and fewer people taking months to recover? That ignores if a vaccine that is developed that is even partially effective. Think of this as a variation of AIDS - would you like to get that in the 1980s with the available treatments or in 2020? Think some people that died from it in the 80s and 90s would be around if they got it a decade later?

There you go - fewer people getting it when getting it is more lethal and troublesome = fewer people dead and with lingering disabilities. You agree or disagree with this math?

Anyway, if the charge into it since we are all getting it anyway is your position - that's fine, at least you seem to be willing to stand behind your inane beliefs, whereas most others that share yours are doing their silly dance, so props on that.

All the best.
The c’est la vie, everyone will get it so whatevs is a very dangerous approach. We have no idea what the long time impact will be for even people who didn’t have any symptoms. There are some very realistic concerns that some people could suffer significant long term damage. Racing into that particular unknown is stupid.
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07-07-2020 , 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
The c’est la vie, everyone will get it so whatevs is a very dangerous approach. We have no idea what the long time impact will be for even people who didn’t have any symptoms. There are some very realistic concerns that some people could suffer significant long term damage. Racing into that particular unknown is stupid.
And how is social distancing going to stop everyone from inevitably getting it anyway? Are you really that optimistic about vaccine? Because im not..
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07-07-2020 , 11:51 PM
Imagine being Smudger...

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07-07-2020 , 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by spino1i
And how is social distancing going to stop everyone from inevitably getting it anyway? Are you really that optimistic about vaccine? Because im not..
I am certainly less bullish than most on the prospects of a vaccine any time soon.

I do think every day that passes offers the opportunity for treatments discovered and knowledge obtained to reduce the risk for people who have the virus.
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07-08-2020 , 12:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spino1i
And how is social distancing going to stop everyone from inevitably getting it anyway? Are you really that optimistic about vaccine? Because im not..
I'm not that optimistic about a vaccine. Why does that mean everyone should just give up, kiss their grandparents goodbye, and roll the dice on permanent lung damage?
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07-08-2020 , 07:52 AM
From a treatment perspective, it is always better to get this type of thing later on to utilize improvements in how it is treated and managed, even if no vaccine is found. Just another "well, duh" thing that some people refuse to comprehend or they willfully ignore that point to suit their agenda.



Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
Imagine being Smudger...

You don't have to imagine. They will simply "staff up." Party on dudes!
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07-08-2020 , 07:56 AM
TOTAL VICTORY!

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07-08-2020 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
TOTAL VICTORY!

Luckily Obama never had a banner that said " You can keep your doctor and your rates will not go up"


60,000 cases Over Under on a 100,000 case day July 21
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07-08-2020 , 10:01 AM
Guess Trump's version would be

"You can't get a doctor"

and when it gets to 100,000+ a day and death rates go up, they will simply "staff up," before heading out to the filled to capacity bar to discuss how great it will be when schools are fully open without any conditions or precautions. Easy peasy lemon squeezey.

All the best.
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07-08-2020 , 10:17 AM
They are doing their bit for global herd immunity(assuming it's achievable). Bless their cotton socks.
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07-08-2020 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Luckily Obama never had a banner that said " You can keep your doctor and your rates will not go up"
The **** does Obama have to do with Smudger declaring TOTAL VICTORY, or Bush parading in front of a MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner 15 years too soon?
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07-08-2020 , 12:36 PM


buckle up?
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07-08-2020 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Luckily Obama never had a banner that said " You can keep your doctor and your rates will not go up"


60,000 cases Over Under on a 100,000 case day July 21
The fact that right wingers always bring up that Obama statement and compare it to Bush or even Trump's outright lies basically show how crazy they have become. Obama's statement was basically correct. The vast majority of Americans with health insurance pre ACA simply kept going on their existing plan. The problem with Mission Accomplished wasn't that there was still a few military operations left after he gave that speech; it's that 98% of US deaths and fighting in Iraq happened after it. Unlike Obama, Bush was maximally wrong. To put it into scientific terms it would be like:

Obama: "When you lower the temperature of something, it's volume decreases"
Good rule of thumb with some exceptions. Probably has reasonable understanding of the physics/chemistry involved at least at the HS level and communicating in good faith.

Bush:"When you lower the temperature of something, it's volume increases"
Usually false, though with some major exceptions. Perhaps good faith, but ignorant of the undergrad level underlying physics of thermodynamics and phase changes. Probably could be taught a better understanding.

Trump: We're going to build devices that remain colder than their environment, they won't have to do any net work.....and Mexico's gonna pay for them!
Completely ignorant on stuff covered in Day 1 of thermodynamics in Jr high AND blatantly bad faith. Unteachable.

Modern republicans just want to throw all these statements in the same basket and say "See, you can't trust any of them!".
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07-08-2020 , 01:12 PM
Trump is now pushing as hard as he can to open up schools with no precautions.

Several issues here: first it does not seem children have been tested at the same rate as adults so we have much less real data on children and the virus.

These children might not end up symptomatic but can still carry the virus and spread it to friends and family. Asymptomatic people can be the absolute deadliest spreaders.

Health wise we still don’t know the long term effects and we have seen some problems that have been unique to children with the virus which should concern everyone.

Trump is only pushing school openings because his only shot at reelection, legitimately, is if the economy comes back massively in four months. Kids at home mean parents at home to watch the kids, meaning a less vibrant economy. Trump is fine feeding American lives into the Covid wood chipper to give himself a slightly better chance at reelection.

I am really concerned about the consequences of this. We still are not taking the basic and fundamental steps to manage the virus in the US and we are intent on making it worse.
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07-08-2020 , 01:23 PM
It feels like america has elected Jim Jones and the country is now heading into its final chapter.
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