Covid-19 Discussion
07-04-2020
, 03:16 AM
07-04-2020
, 03:23 AM
07-04-2020
, 05:27 AM
07-04-2020
, 07:18 AM
I suppose the counter argument will be that it was always a moving target.
07-04-2020
, 07:19 AM
Quote:
My whole read of the situation is that 300,000 Americans are going to die short of a vaccination. No matter what we do, how long we distance, the disease is going to spread.
The whole point of shelter/stay at home, I believed, was so that the hospital system did not get overwhelmed and everybody who needed treatment would get it. Worse case scenario, 600,000 people would have died due to lack of treatment.
It's a stark reality. But, we are passed the point of health care systems being overwhelmed. Why can't I open my office yet? Why can't I go have a drink at a bar? Why can't I go to the movies (I like 11 AM shows where there is no crowd anyway)?
I know there was good news on the vaccination front and Trump wants to use the army to distribute it really fast. But, it is not a guarantee. We haven't developed a vaccination for the common cold yet! Now, if a vaccination was developed and they give guidance it will take 8-12 weeks to distribute it, I would understand everyone staying home, but minimum time frame that the scientists are saying is early next year. What if we all stay home till early next year, and they say, OOPS, be the end of next year! And then at the end of next year, they say, OOPS, it mutates more than we thought. Sorry, no vaccination if forthcoming!
Curve has been flattened. Let's get back to work.
The whole point of shelter/stay at home, I believed, was so that the hospital system did not get overwhelmed and everybody who needed treatment would get it. Worse case scenario, 600,000 people would have died due to lack of treatment.
It's a stark reality. But, we are passed the point of health care systems being overwhelmed. Why can't I open my office yet? Why can't I go have a drink at a bar? Why can't I go to the movies (I like 11 AM shows where there is no crowd anyway)?
I know there was good news on the vaccination front and Trump wants to use the army to distribute it really fast. But, it is not a guarantee. We haven't developed a vaccination for the common cold yet! Now, if a vaccination was developed and they give guidance it will take 8-12 weeks to distribute it, I would understand everyone staying home, but minimum time frame that the scientists are saying is early next year. What if we all stay home till early next year, and they say, OOPS, be the end of next year! And then at the end of next year, they say, OOPS, it mutates more than we thought. Sorry, no vaccination if forthcoming!
Curve has been flattened. Let's get back to work.
Quote:
My first instinct after seeing those numbers was to offer to take the over on 800,000 by Dec 31st at evens, but then I realised that it was going to be a total head**** arguing about which sources to use, lyin' media over-counting to make daddy look bad, hopitals gettin' paid 10 gazillion per death they classify as Covid, etc. etc.
07-04-2020
, 12:01 PM
Here's the 7 day rolling average of new deaths in Arizona:
And Florida:
Arizona is already at all time highs for new daily deaths. Florida may get there by the end of next week. Looking at national numbers hides the fact that deaths are blowing up in the same states where cases are blowing up, because deaths are still trending down in the states that were hit early and that are still making progress.
07-04-2020
, 12:12 PM
Quote:
In which adios fails aggressively at Simpson's Paradox, despite having tried to explain it to him earlier.
Here's the 7 day rolling average of new deaths in Arizona:
And Florida:
Arizona is already at all time highs for new daily deaths. Florida may get there by the end of next week. Looking at national numbers hides the fact that deaths are blowing up in the same states where cases are blowing up, because deaths are still trending down in the states that were hit early and that are still making progress.
Here's the 7 day rolling average of new deaths in Arizona:
And Florida:
Arizona is already at all time highs for new daily deaths. Florida may get there by the end of next week. Looking at national numbers hides the fact that deaths are blowing up in the same states where cases are blowing up, because deaths are still trending down in the states that were hit early and that are still making progress.
Do you think Az or Florida will ever catch up to the top tier of states (all NE blue states) as far as absolute death rate? I don't and if anyone thinks they will, I would be willing to set up a wager.
07-04-2020
, 01:23 PM
Quote:
In which adios fails aggressively at Simpson's Paradox, despite having tried to explain it to him earlier.
Here's the 7 day rolling average of new deaths in Arizona:
And Florida:
Arizona is already at all time highs for new daily deaths. Florida may get there by the end of next week. Looking at national numbers hides the fact that deaths are blowing up in the same states where cases are blowing up, because deaths are still trending down in the states that were hit early and that are still making progress.
Here's the 7 day rolling average of new deaths in Arizona:
And Florida:
Arizona is already at all time highs for new daily deaths. Florida may get there by the end of next week. Looking at national numbers hides the fact that deaths are blowing up in the same states where cases are blowing up, because deaths are still trending down in the states that were hit early and that are still making progress.
Last edited by adios; 07-04-2020 at 01:39 PM.