Vaccines are eliminated from the body within a few weeks. So yes.

I can't answer why you think that. Only you can. It's all in your head.

le sigh

Yeah? Why didn't you ask that question of Brian James who gleefully posts about all the athletes "dying of vaccine induced myocarditis" and celebrates when he thinks life saving vaccines might be killing people? But you ask me, with a medical degree, simply telling you the facts?

You're very transparent here.

The mRNA vaccines do not actually contain Covid so long term effects from the vaccine would be very different than from Covid itself.

I think specifically the problem with Covid and long term effects has to do with both the type of damage it is doing (especially to lungs) and whether or not it can permanently reside in the body and be re-triggered (kind of like Lyme disease).

As for the mRNA vaccines we at least know that long term affects would have to be more than like 6 years before they hit because mRNA vaccines were distributed in Africa in 2017 (or maybe 2016) to prevent Ebola. So far no long term affects are known. Also, mRNA vaccines have been developed for over 50 years but could not be given to humans until recently. But they have been given to animals since at least the 1990's so I think we can be pretty sure that long term affects in the animals would have shown up (but I don't know that for sure).

But in answer to your question I was concerned about the potential for long term affects from the mRNA vaccines (though in fairness I was unaware at the time that they had been used in Africa in 2017). A doctor I was with yesterday told me that she also was concerned with potential long term problems with mRNA vaccines as they were coming out. I don't think there is any way to be sure that there won't be severe consequences but I do think the chances of that happening are very slim or the people who have been working on this type of vaccine for the past 50 years would have figured it out or at least researched any suspect possibilities. And both myself and that doctor are vaccinated and still alive...

Long Covid has now affected over 20 million Americans. And it can be brutal.

I ran into a poker player I have known for years at Foxwoods and he was suffering from severe muscle pain for over 4 months and it wasn't going away. My wife's payroll accountant lost all taste and smell for over a year after having had covid. My 23 year old daughter has to use an inhaler pretty much every day now for Asthma and before she caught Covid (about 2 years ago) she was basically using the inhaler maybe once a month.

My hope is that Long covid cases will be reduced (length of time and pain) for people who are vaccinated but I have no idea if that is the case (my daughter was vaccinated when she caught Covid and who knows she might have much more severe asthma if she wasn't)

Sweden is an example of what poor results looks like. Not sure what that should count for?

Long COVID (purported) existence overlaps with health deteriorating for other reasons anyway with the passing of time.

When approx everyone has been infected by SARS-CoV-2 already (often more than once), if we limit ourselves at looking at health-after-infection, we will attribute to COVID what would have been happening anyway absent COVID.

Notice that's the same for the vaccines.

So how do you measure if any long COVID actually exists? You check baseline incidence in time of those problems and you check if they significantly increased in the population, after controlling for trend and other events (population is getting older and that affects health, and lockdowns greatly affected health as well)

They did that several time and a nothing burger came out of it, compared to normal long-disease problems (for ex you can have lasting effects of bronchitis, pneumonia, flu and so on). Remember we don't do NPIs for bronchitis and the flu, so in order to justify long COVID as a reason for "being careful" or to worry, long COVID has to be significantly worse than long-bronchitis and long-flu.

And it clearly isn't in all data that has been checked on the topic, with the methodology described above.

I try to repeat to make the point clear: it's normal for a fair amount of people who end up in the hospital with pneumonia, to have bad effects lasting weeks/months after you are sent home. COVID isn't worse than that, it's actually far less than pneumonia at that.

Given we never cared in the slightest, from a societal, NPI/PPE point of view, about that, there is no reason to care about long-covid as well

one thing about long covid is i worry it's being misattributed

chronic conditions are a thing most everyone had before covid, but now it feels like whenever someone has an issue it's suddenly long covid

much in the way we would look at excess deaths to get the real number of those dying from covid, we should be looking at excess chronic conditions to see if long covid is even real

And the irony is that this is identical to antivaxxers "logic" of claiming vaccine caused x, just because x followed temporarily to am event which touched 150m+ people in the USA (vaccination).

Going by long COVID and antivaxxer logic drinking water is the biggest cause of death in the nation, as it is very rare to find anyone who died who didn't drink water in the previous month

mRNA vaccines were tested on humans in 2013.

Devil advocate would be that you can't generalize the long term effects of mRNA vaccine x to all mRNA vaccines, because some specific mRNA sequences could cause different problems than others (we actually would expect that to be the case).

At most we can generalize on the lack of adverse effects for other components of the vaccine which afaik are always the same.

Same as you can't generalize the long term effects of using some specific viral vector for vaccination, to all possible viral vectors vaccines.

Then you realize places like Canada score significantly below the US in health index scores yet scored better than the USA in every measurable metric on COVID

Oh and speaking of vaccine side effects, we know dosage matters.

We didn't have the time for COVID vaccines to optimize dosage but we know moderna caused more side effects (here I am talking about the small bread and butter ones immediately following the inoculation) than Pfizer, and we know it was because of the higher dose.

Pfizer is 0.3ml, moderna 0.5ml

Which is why when the vaccine approval was extended to minors younger than 12, and we already know dosage was an issue, moderna dose got cut in half for them.

But that's a back of the envelope approach, a very very rough one, in decades we will learn a lot more

Problem is until then rigorous testing of mRNA vaccines has to be differentiate between vaccines, and dosage, with control groups, so it's kinda a nightmare to do scientifically.

We are just lucky the real world experiment on people worked better than everyone expected and call it a day, we got blessed with a fairly miracolous new vaccine platform which performed better than expected with lower side effects than expected, we can improve on it, just celebrate the success and move on.

But pls never mandate it again to anyone no exception, for any disease.

Health CARE index, both Canada and the USA were fairly low in 2019, but Canada was better.

But that's not what I had in mind, I was talking about underlying health conditions, if you have another index in mind let me know which

According to the Bloomberg health index in 2019, Canada was number 16, the USA number 35

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-cou...-to-new-report

Underlying health conditions index is a new one to me

Oh, you mean you made a massive assumption that neatly fit your narrative

No lol I said something that is fairly well known, IE that in 2019 Americans were in terrible health conditions compared to most other wester nations (lowest life expectancy in the first world, and so on).

That's pretty well know.

The reasons for that can be debated as much as you want but the facts are very clear, Americans, for whatever reason(s) were horribly worse (comparatively).than Canada health wise when COVID hit

The specific conditions from Long Covid are fairly wide. But many people have lost taste and smell for long periods of time during Covid and immediately following covid. These are things that basically don't ever happen to anyone. So its not random it is very specifically a result of Covid and it is Long because it is typically lasting a long time before it goes away.

Similarly with lung problems. The type of lung issues like what happened to my daughter are not unique to Covid. They can happen for a variety of reasons. But the fact that they are happening to people immediately after Covid (and sometimes during covid) means it is not random and collectively is obvious that it is due to Covid. To pretend its not is like being unable to do simple math.

They are currently doing studies on Long Covid to try to find out why the symptoms that people are having during covid and immediately after they have covid are related to Covid. They don't know the specifics yet. But pretending that it is similar to people dying because they drink water is not very bright. Because people who drink water rarely die. Very rarely (like 7,755 people die each day in the US and 326,700,000 are drinking water so its like 1 of every 40,000). And yet people who have Covid often can't smell or taste (and by often lets go with 5% or 1 out of 20).

"Research suggests five percent (around 27.5 million individuals) of global COVID-19 infections have resulted in smell or taste impairment lasting at least six months."

Here is an article about Long Covid

"The report looked at results from the Household Pulse Survey, which collects data on how people's lives have been impacted by COVID-19.

In addition to the decline of current long COVID patients among total U.S. population, the percentage of patients reporting long COVID who were confirmed to have had the virus, fell from 18.9% to 11%.

Results showed that when broken down by age, only those below age 60 saw significant rates of decline in long COVID between June 2022 and June 2023, with significant drops particularly in fall and winter."

Yes smell/taste loss for weeks/months has been noted as a sequela on SARS-CoV-2 infections, and even if it is a sequela of other respiratory diseases as well, it looks like it might be more frequent for SARS-CoV-2 infections than for other pathogens.

Yet that's a far cry from the claim of "COVID debilitated many people long term", you are still a functional individual with a reduced/removed taste/smell unless you work very specific jobs

I thought we were talking severe problems like permanent disability, permanently reduced lung capacity and so on.

mr rick

i'm not saying that long covid is not real

i'm saying that a few months ago i was listening to an npr report about it and they were talking about "people discovering new symptoms months or years after getting covid" things like back pain

there's a ton of it which i have no doubt is legit, but a lot of it is just kind of "well that's probably long covid" and that doesn't feel like a good methodology

in fact, i even pulled over and pulled up scholar.google looking for studies into long covid to learn about the process over how it was being counted and classified and to the best of my knowledge it is not

there's no formal thing for it, it's just people & their doctors are like "maybe it's long covid" and that's it


i feel like it's something like when we were getting reports about all these children hospitalized with covid and that was not kids who were in the hospital because of covid, but in the hospital because they broke an arm on the monkey bars and during their time their they were tested and found to have covid so they get entered into the official data of hospitalized children with covid and then it gets taken out of context



my neighbor never got covid - she was got a pretty bad flu in AUG 2019 which she believes was early covid (but it obviously wasn't - something tells me patient zero in the USA was an isolated case in rural maine by an elderly lady who doesn't own a passport and never leaves her house) and now every old lady ailment she has she claims is long covid and it's just a "roll your eyes and nod your head" kind of moment because it serves no purpose to talk to her about her delusions and misattribution of - you old - you gonna have tons of long term debilitating problems - and most of those you had before covid was around anyway - it's getting worse because you're getting older, not because you think you were patient zero

.

What's your degree in again?

We do know what's behind the increase in youth mortality - it's in the paper I responded to you with a few posts ago.