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Covid-19 Discussion Covid-19 Discussion

05-18-2020 , 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by well named
I've been meaning to find some time to play with the Covidtracking.com API to pull out hospitalizations reporting per day and look at trends for some of the states that have ended lockdowns, but between moving and work it hasn't happened. But it seems like it might be a useful stat to track right now, i.e. fewer issues with testing constraints or other reporting issues than tracking cases, less lag than deaths, and it's a pretty important metric.

If anyone is interested and wasn't aware of that source, I'm pretty sure it would be fairly easy to write a script to pull out data for specific states and plot a graph.
To state the obvious, the quality of the hospitalization data varies significantly by state.
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05-18-2020 , 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by d2_e4
Breaking news from the world of science: experts have yet to ascertain which way round the causality between being a Trump supporter and being an insufferable ignoramus works, but they are reporting a 5 sigma corrrelation.
I get that everyone who disagrees with you must be a trumper but I am not. Completely off topic to the discussion and not to insult you, but you seem like a complete dork.
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05-18-2020 , 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Rococo
To state the obvious, the quality of the hospitalization data varies significantly by state.
Dang. I was hoping it might be a bit better.
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05-18-2020 , 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Smudger2408
I'm not going to bet on COVID, but after the fact will certainly acknowledge you were right if South Korea did things differently and got a better health and economic outcome than we did.
Sounds good. Just FTR, we're currently at 4582 cases/million in the USA and 217 cases/million in SK, and the recent trend line is USA expanding its lead, so I like my chances pretty well.
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05-18-2020 , 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiddyBang
I get that everyone who disagrees with you must be a trumper but I am not. Completely off topic to the discussion and not to insult you, but you seem like a complete dork.
Oh goody, another not-a-Trumper who just coincidentally supports everything the Trump and GOP say and do and always agrees with the other Trumpers (and not-a-Trumpers) on the forum. We were running low on those.
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05-18-2020 , 01:53 PM
Ruth Chris returned the $20,000,000. They did the fiscally responsible thing and applied for the loan as the details were vague. When it became more clear, they returned the money as they did not feel it applied to their situation.
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05-18-2020 , 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by lagtight
Hey, Mr. Wookie, what's the red state versus blue state death toll right now?

Weren't you predicting more deaths in red states some time back?
I don't know what Mr. Wookie predicted, but this is a very dumb way to measure whether red states or blue states are doing a better job of responding to the pandemic. New York and New Jersey were hardest hit in this wave partly because of population density and heavy use of public transportation, but mostly because New York had by far the most cases two weeks before any states were locked down. In other words, New York had a big head start on infections spreading before any measures were implemented.

It is far from certain that New York will have a similar "head start" if there is a second wave. The hot spot for a second wave could be Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Chicago, LA, or wherever. If you are living in a city in a red state and thinking that New York is uniquely susceptible to a pandemic, you are badly mistaken. New York might be a little more vulnerable, but we aren't talking about an order of magnitude.

I'll put it this way. COVID is a respiratory illness. NYC isn't some sort of crazy outlier when it comes to prevalence of respiratory illnesses generally. New Yorkers don't get the flu or colds at a dramatically higher rate than people in a lot of other areas. So why should anyone assume that NYC will bear the brunt of a second wave of COVID?
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05-18-2020 , 01:58 PM
Mr. Wookie, from an article on Politico:

Partly, Korea has done well because it has experience in this type of event and because, as a society, people were already used to wearing face masks and using hand sanitizer — a type of readiness that is hard to replicate.



You can read cultural differences at the start of this thing that allowed them to be more equipped for the outbreak than other places in the world. It's not all testing and containment. Also, they had laws in place from 2015 that allows their government to override privacy concerns that we don't have in place, due to an outbreak of another infectious disease.
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05-18-2020 , 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Ruth Chris returned the $20,000,000. They did the fiscally responsible thing and applied for the loan as the details were vague. When it became more clear, they returned the money as they did not feel it applied to their situation.

I was never in doubt that it would be fiscally responsible for RC's to take a 6 month interest free loan at 1% thereafter.

My point is that it's a shitty law that doesn't help people who really need it most but gives out taxpayer money to people who need it the least.

RC go caught and gave it back. But that's the exception, not the rule.

Shall we talk about the deficit and national debt now or wait for a Dem to be elected president ?
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05-18-2020 , 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
RC go caught and gave it back. But that's the exception, not the rule.
This is too facile. The guidance on who qualifies for a PPP loan definitely has been unclear and inconsistent.
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05-18-2020 , 02:35 PM
When did anyone ever think that Trump would care about debt?

LOL, he's been over levered in his personal dealings since the 70's! Think the Republican Party gave up on national debt as a core platform piece when they nominated him.
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05-18-2020 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Mr. Wookie, from an article on Politico:

Partly, Korea has done well because it has experience in this type of event and because, as a society, people were already used to wearing face masks and using hand sanitizer — a type of readiness that is hard to replicate.



You can read cultural differences at the start of this thing that allowed them to be more equipped for the outbreak than other places in the world. It's not all testing and containment. Also, they had laws in place from 2015 that allows their government to override privacy concerns that we don't have in place, due to an outbreak of another infectious disease.
These "cultural differences" are not something in the genes of South Korean people and that are absent from Americans, and neither are they immutable.

South Korea's pandemic response is not some accident. They saw the original SARS outbreak and set up a competent response should something like that happen again. America never set up a system as good, and Trump, rather than keeping what we had, scrapped everything. Americans may be less used to wearing masks, but that can change also. However, Trump refuses to model this behavior for others to follow, and he lauds those who flout such rules or recommendations instead. As we open up, people wearing masks and people who ask that others wear masks are met with anger and derision and occasionally murder rather than compliance and compassion. If that's how we respond to masks, we should not be opening up until we have that cultural change.
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05-18-2020 , 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Rococo
This is too facile. The guidance on who qualifies for a PPP loan definitely has been unclear and inconsistent.

I haven't read that they didn't qualify.
They just didn't want the bad press. But they were approved and the check was cut.

Terrible law, as I said. I don't fault RC's. If someone gives you free money you take it.

lol at poker players making excuses for purveyor of sizzling steaks though.
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05-18-2020 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
When did anyone ever think that Trump would care about debt?

LOL, he's been over levered in his personal dealings since the 70's! Think the Republican Party gave up on national debt as a core platform piece when they nominated him.

The GOP always uses the debt they rack up against the dems.

It's almost as if they think they're voters are stupid.
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05-18-2020 , 03:34 PM
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My point is that it's a shitty law that doesn't help people who really need it most but gives out taxpayer money to people who need it the least.
Your whole bailout package was a joke. It barely helped the unemployed or the small businesses that needed it

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The GOP always uses the debt they rack up against the dems.

It's almost as if they think they're voters are stupid.
Its almost like anyone that votes Republican is plain old stupid and anyone that votes democrat is plain old stupid.
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05-18-2020 , 03:52 PM
Lockdowns don't work, unless they are done very early. Extended lockdowns are in actual fact making things worse.

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We will likely discover in nearly every state that community spread began long before any mitigation efforts, rendering them akin to closing the barn door after the horses had left. Which would explain why there is absolutely no correlation between severity and duration of lockdowns and positive results. If anything, there is something of an inverse relationship, likely because we locked down people who had already contracted the virus indoors for a prolonged period of time.
https://www.conservativereview.com/n...arly-december/
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05-18-2020 , 03:56 PM
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States with longer lockdowns had worse results: Kyle Lamb posted a solid analysis on Twitter, grouping states by how long they implemented a lockdown and averaging out the deaths per 100,000 people by each grouping. The results are stounding, as there is a perfectly inverse relationship between how long a state implemented a lockdown and how successful it was in keeping the deaths down. I independently cross-checked these numbers, and they appear to be accurate.
https://www.conservativereview.com/n...ow-sars-cov-2/
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05-18-2020 , 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by RFlushDiamonds
I haven't read that they didn't qualify.
They just didn't want the bad press. But they were approved and the check was cut.

Terrible law, as I said. I don't fault RC's. If someone gives you free money you take it.

lol at poker players making excuses for purveyor of sizzling steaks though.
I'm not making excuses for RC. I have no idea whether RC qualified or not. If it's a public company, it probably did not.

But I can confirm from my own experience that the guidance for small companies was unclear and inconsistent. I deal with a lot of small companies and many of them were uncertain whether they met the criteria.
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05-18-2020 , 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by joe6pack
Do you infer from this that NYC would have been better off if it had lifted its lockdown six weeks ago, or maybe never even locked down at all?

LOL if your answer is yes. Well, LOL anyway, but extra LOL if your answer is yes.
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05-18-2020 , 04:11 PM
No clicking anything called "conservativereview" (if anyone caught me, I'd have to switch to porn real quick to save the embarrassment), but if anyone does bother with it, a synopsis of what flavour of propaganda sixtoes managed to dredge up this time would be appreciated.
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05-18-2020 , 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Rococo
Do you infer from this that NYC would have been better off if it had lifted its lockdown six weeks ago, or maybe never even locked down at all?

LOL if your answer is yes. Well, LOL anyway, but extra LOL if your answer is yes.
NYC would have been better off if it had locked down nursing homes only and not sent positive patients from hospitals back into the homes.

https://www.conservativereview.com/n...s-essentially/

Last edited by joe6pack; 05-18-2020 at 04:25 PM.
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05-18-2020 , 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by joe6pack
This guy is amplifying people who believe **** like 40,000 excess deaths over normal that haven't been flagged as covid-19 patients are deaths due to the lockdown, not undiagnosed covid-19 deaths.
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05-18-2020 , 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Rococo
I'm not making excuses for RC. I have no idea whether RC qualified or not. If it's a public company, it probably did not.

But I can confirm from my own experience that the guidance for small companies was unclear and inconsistent. I deal with a lot of small companies and many of them were uncertain whether they met the criteria.
Well, they weren't the only public company to get first dibs on the money.
I assume their financial experts read the law and didn't make fraudulent statements on the firms behalf. And they got the money.

I don't doubt that small companies were left rudderless as the intent was to give big companies and the wealthy free tax dollars.

Who said it earlier ? "Mission accomplished".
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05-18-2020 , 04:31 PM
Lockdown nursing homes and open everything else up. Crisis solved.

Dr6pack.
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05-18-2020 , 04:53 PM
Early bird dinners would still exist in your world.

All the best.
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