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Old 08-07-2020, 05:58 PM   #1
itshotinvegas
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Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

House Democrats passed a largely meaningless bill back in May, one that was never going to make it through the Senate, and had zero Republican support. Republican passed a bill in the Senate, and have made a few concessions, namely increasing the unemployment compensation to $400, from I believe $200. It seems democrats are not getting enough money in the bill, and are resolved to not do any deal unless they do.

The issue is, Republicans don't have enough support for the size and scope of the bill they passed so need the Democrat votes, and Democrats want more money, which will lose more Republican votes. It seems rather bold for Pelosi to hold out here, and claim it's the Republicans holding up action. It's really about the amount of money in the bill, rather than where it goes, as both sides seem to be on the same page, generally, as far as who should get the money.


I don't really get the politics from the Democrats on this. How do they win by holding out for more money, while the people they trying to help get nothing?

Quote:
Coronavirus talks between Democratic leaders and the Trump administration ground to a halt Friday after the sides failed to bridge a gulf in how much they want to spend to combat a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

She said Democrats aim to put $75 billion into Covid-19 testing and treatment, while the GOP bill includes $15 billion.

Pelosi wrote that the GOP has offered $150 billion for states and municipalities, far below the $915 billion Democrats proposed.

The speaker said the sides are “a couple hundred billion dollars apart” on money to help schools reopen. Republicans included $105 billion for schools in their legislation.

Pelosi called for more money for food, water and utility assistance than the GOP has proposed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coro...ive-order.html

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Old 08-07-2020, 06:07 PM   #2
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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I don't really get the politics from the Democrats on this. How do they win by holding out for more money, while the people they trying to help get nothing?
Well, when the result of not getting a bill passed quickly is Trump losing support then it makes perfect political sense, although you can argue it is a very cynical strategy.

Also, in fairness to the Democrats they are probably also doing some sort of EV calculation that Trump will cave, and in the long term their constituents will get more out of them playing hardball, although there will be more pain in the short term. But if Trump doesn't cave and nothing is passed, that is a political win too, so W/W.

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Old 08-07-2020, 06:38 PM   #3
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

The Republicans haven't passed the HEALS act in the Senate. It's unclear if they have enough of their own votes to pass their own bill.
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Old 08-07-2020, 06:40 PM   #4
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

I think the main sticking point is aid for state and local governments. The Dems know they have some leverage right now due to the rift in GOP opinion, and City governments are facing huge shortfalls. I think in that regard its better to get a lot more money a month from now than a much smaller amount paid out immediately.

It could also be posturing on both sides and they just move the recess back to continue negotiating.
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Old 08-07-2020, 07:41 PM   #5
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

i love how its always that republicans put up a ridiculous bill with barely any money for actual relief of the target, but include stupid **** like billions for fighters planes, and 2 billion n corruption to make sure another hotel doesnt get built to compete with trump's hotel, but it's the democrats that are "bad" for trying to negotiate for more money for those in need while in a position of strength.


plus the republicans cant even agree on their own bill..
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Old 08-07-2020, 07:46 PM   #6
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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The Republicans haven't passed the HEALS act in the Senate. It's unclear if they have enough of their own votes to pass their own bill.
Which is why they are courting Democrats. It actually has to be a bipartisan bill that has to appeal to moderates on both sides of the aisle. Every dollar you add, likely loses a Republican. Every dollar you take away loses a Democrat.

Not to mention the Democrats are all in on permanent forgiveness of student loan debt. If you want to turn this into a partisan **** fest.

@Slighted The 'con's have one trillion ready for a vote (that includes the $1200 for everyone (Somewhat similar to the one back in the spring, and $400 for unemployment), and have increased their offer since then. You all defending the hardball play seems out of touch, a little is better than none. It's not like you can't revisit it at later time.
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Old 08-07-2020, 07:46 PM   #7
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

Pelosi is playing it smart this time.

Let the GOP who just gave billionaires a major tax cut refuse to do what other first world countries have done to keep their economies afloat during the pandemic......in an election year.
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Old 08-07-2020, 08:29 PM   #8
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

Seems like an obvious political winner for Dems, they all support the House version. McConnell already gave up because quite a few senate republicans are already anticipating another replay of 2008 where Dems clean up the mess and suddenly in 2022 the debt magically becomes a big deal again. Policy wise this is also a winner for Dems also since Trump isn’t smart enough to follow the details and eventually Mnuchin/whoever will tell him that he won and Trump will believe them and back whatever.
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Old 08-07-2020, 08:37 PM   #9
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Seems like an obvious political winner for Dems, they all support the House version.
A version that has zero Republican support (they were not even consulted) and no chance at ever becoming law? How's that a winning strategy? I mean, if they are holding up a compromise to make 'con's look bad...that's not a winning strategy. This is not like the Republicans are not willing to spend any money.
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Old 08-07-2020, 08:53 PM   #10
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Originally Posted by itshotinvegas View Post
A version that has zero Republican support (they were not even consulted) and no chance at ever becoming law? How's that a winning strategy? I mean, if they are holding up a compromise to make 'con's look bad...that's not a winning strategy. This is not like the Republicans are not willing to spend any money.
It's, uh, quite a bit more likely to become law than the Senate version, which can't even pass a single house.

And no, it's highly unlikely this will be revisited before the November elections. There is very little remaining legislative time before everyone is just straight campaigning until after the election. Holding out for a better deal is the right play for the Dems.
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Old 08-07-2020, 08:58 PM   #11
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

Nothing will get passed until the stock market starts crashing, and then Trump, McConnell, Graham, and the vulnerable Republicans will panic and give the Dems whatever they want.

/thread
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:00 PM   #12
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

IHIV: "Why can't the Dems see that the bipartisan solution is just to give the GOP everything they want for nothing in return? Why are they being so partisan?"
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:06 PM   #13
itshotinvegas
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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IHIV: "Why can't the Dems see that the bipartisan solution is just to give the GOP everything they want for nothing in return? Why are they being so partisan?"


I'm not stupid, bro. The D's and R's want the same thing, the D's came out with a moon shoot, and and the R's countered. The issue is, the D's are not coming down off any of their proposals, just the length. The R's have made concessions (such as increasing the initial UE amount).

Quote:
It's, uh, quite a bit more likely to become law than the Senate version, which can't even pass a single house.

And no, it's highly unlikely this will be revisited before the November elections. There is very little remaining legislative time before everyone is just straight campaigning until after the election. Holding out for a better deal is the right play for the Dems.
This negotiation is between Trump and house Democrats, blaming the Senate is stupid.

If you want to go partisan, the D's are still hanging onto something that should not be in the bill in the first place:

Quote:
It cancels up to $10,000 for some federal and private loan holders.
That's a poison pill.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:09 PM   #14
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Originally Posted by itshotinvegas View Post
A version that has zero Republican support (they were not even consulted) and no chance at ever becoming law? How's that a winning strategy? I mean, if they are holding up a compromise to make 'con's look bad...that's not a winning strategy. This is not like the Republicans are not willing to spend any money.
The Republican plan has 0 dem support and not even 100% republican support. There is bipartisan opposition to it. So republicans need to get their act together. If Senate Republicans arenít even going to try, Mnuchin or whoever needs to find out what can pass in the Senate. So far nothing that exists can.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:10 PM   #15
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

Wow, a single concession that still results in less money to working people than what had gone out in the previous pandemic aid bill? How generous of them!

Why am I supposed to regard student loan debt as a poison pill but subsidizing corporate debt is just fine and dandy? Forgiveness of student loan debt is popular! Why wouldn't the Dems want to propose popular things?
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:14 PM   #16
itshotinvegas
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte View Post
The Republican plan has 0 dem support and not even 100% republican support. There is bipartisan opposition to it. So republicans need to get their act together. If Senate Republicans arenít even going to try, Mnuchin or whoever needs to find out what can pass in the Senate. So far nothing that exists can.
WTF? There is 1 trillion dollars that can help people, that can get through both chambers with Democrat support. Democrats are holding out for more money, so no one gets anything. You keep ignoring this.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:15 PM   #17
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Wow, a single concession that still results in less money to working people than what had gone out in the previous pandemic aid bill? How generous of them!

Why am I supposed to regard student loan debt as a poison pill but subsidizing corporate debt is just fine and dandy? Forgiveness of student loan debt is popular! Why wouldn't the Dems want to propose popular things?
Yeah, I get it, the goal is popularity, not helping people. The moral calculus is, if we can't help with enormous amount of money, lets not help with a lesser amount, so we can own the 'cons, is bullshit.

The point is, the Democrats rather the people go without than get what they can get. Again, some Republicans are willing to spend some money.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:26 PM   #18
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

There is a deal at one trillion, Democrats said no dice. So, no one gets anything. Left posters: Damn Republicans!
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:26 PM   #19
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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WTF? There is 1 trillion dollars that can help people, that can get through both chambers with Democrat support. Democrats are holding out for more money, so no one gets anything. You keep ignoring this.
My understanding of the situation is Dems want 3T and Rís want 1T. Demís offered to start negotiating at 2T and Rís refused. So the Demís posture is that they can walk away from this as thereís no actual compromise going on. So, ĎDems holding out for more moneyí could be easily rephrased as ĎRís refuse to compromise.í
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:32 PM   #20
itshotinvegas
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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My understanding of the situation is Dems want 3T and R’s want 1T. Dem’s offered to start negotiating at 2T and R’s refused. So the Dem’s posture is that they can walk away from this as there’s no actual compromise going on. So, ‘Dems holding out for more money’ could be easily rephrased as ‘R’s refuse to compromise.’
If the hard counter is double what the fractured Republicans (limited support at $1T) were going to spend (and it's not even a different amount, it's just shorten the duration of the benefits to lower the package size), that's not good faith negotiations, especially with a poison pill of student loan forgiveness that will get absolutely zero support among Republicans.

If you have limited support at $1T, what makes you think they can get a deal done at $2T?
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:35 PM   #21
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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WTF? There is 1 trillion dollars that can help people, that can get through both chambers with Democrat supportDemocrats are holding out for more money, so no one gets anything. You keep ignoring this.
Lol and an even better plan that can get through with Republican support. Why can’t republicans just bite the bullet and do the right thing? Only Trump and like 15 Republican senators need to get on board. Given Republicans can’t pass something just on their own this is by far the easiest path forward. If they are opposed to that because it gives democrats a “win” they are being disgraceful and need to start acting in the interests of their constituents.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:38 PM   #22
itshotinvegas
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Lol and an even better plan that can get through with Republican support. Why canít republicans just bite the bullet and do the right thing? Only Trump and like 15 Republican senators need to get on board. Given Republicans canít pass something just on their this is by far the easiest path forward. If they are opposed to that because it gives democrats a ďwinĒ they are being disgraceful and need to start acting in the interests of their constituents.
If the option is either 1T or zero....zero is not the better option.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:39 PM   #23
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

The alternative isn't zero. It's hold out for a better deal. Are you one of the people who eats the one marshmallow right away?
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:40 PM   #24
itshotinvegas
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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The alternative isn't zero. It's hold out for a better deal. Are you one of the people who eats the one marshmallow right away?
You think they going to get a deal at or above $2T? If I still gambled, I'd lay 3-1 against.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:42 PM   #25
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Re: Congressional Stimulus Talks Stall...

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Originally Posted by itshotinvegas View Post
If the hard counter is double what the fractured Republicans (limited support at $1T) were going to spend (and it's not even a different amount, it's just shorten the duration of the benefits to lower the package size), that's not good faith negotiations, especially with a poison pill of student loan forgiveness that will get absolutely zero support among Republicans.

If you have limited support at $1T, what makes you think they can get a deal done at $2T?
At $2T you lose what, 20~25 R Senators and gain all the Dems? Arguably there is more support at $2T than $1T.

At the end of the day, I doubt Trump cares how much the final number is as long as he gets to mail his bigly signature out to Americans again.
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