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Climate Change, Energy Crisis Climate Change, Energy Crisis

02-27-2021 , 08:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
The sound approach is to state more research needs to be done on localized weather phenomena and extreme weather events, and to what extent these are tied to climate change.

The research on overall global warming has been at a extremely high level of consensus for a long time, with disagreements largely stemming from technical application of models and analysis. There is no question here that the conclusion drawn is that climate change represents a very high treat to humanity. Perhaps not extinction-event level threat, but definitely in the ballpark of "global thermonuclear war".
Agree with all of this! Making conclusions about climate change effects on weather conditions that occur infrequently but over a long period like 100 years plus is ridiculous !
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02-27-2021 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave!
Agree with all of this! Making conclusions about climate change effects on weather conditions that occur infrequently but over a long period like 100 years plus is ridiculous !
They are the same though.

Changes in long term climate express themselves as frequency variations in weather events.
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02-27-2021 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
They are the same though.

Changes in long term climate express themselves as frequency variations in weather events.
Low temp in Dallas occurred in 1899. Greenhouse gas emissions weren’t at the levels they’re at today. Weather has been volatile for a long, long time! Correlation != Causation!!!! Tropical storms/hurricane names got into the Greeks in 2020. The increased storm activity over the last decade in the Caribbean makes it a high probability of being caused by climate change. If Texas starts having these cold weather events with much more frequency then I will change my tune!!!

Last edited by BlueWave!; 02-27-2021 at 01:27 PM.
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02-27-2021 , 04:57 PM


I love this clip

I do not deny climate change btw
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02-27-2021 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave!
Correlation != Causation!!!! !!
Except there is a clear and obvious measurable and observed process by which climate change caused this event, e.g. the expulsion of cold air from the north polar region.
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02-27-2021 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Except there is a clear and obvious measurable and observed process by which climate change caused this event, e.g. the expulsion of cold air from the north polar region.
This is very much still a matter of research, there are ideas, some are gaining traction and we have in recent years gotten more solid models that show these links, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions and few definite answers. We certainly have grounds to say climate change is driving a change in extreme weather, however. This is the leading scientific consensus.

The link between climate and weather is a strange one, because it is on one hand completely obvious and on the other hand a result of interconnecting phenomena making a system of gargantuan complexity.

Regardless of any of this, it is certainly not the case that me or you should point to any one specific extreme weather event and go "aha! Climate change!".
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02-28-2021 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces

Regardless of any of this, it is certainly not the case that me or you should point to any one specific extreme weather event and go "aha! Climate change!".
Its not one specific extreme weather event, this is a shallow superficial way of observing this event.

Cold air has to come from somewhere, the air in Texas did not magically become cold.

What you have to look at is not where the air arrived, but where it came from.

So if cold air is consistently being moved from one place, but due to the complex systems you mention, often arriving at/affecting "weather" in different places then whilst in the area the cold air arrives it might look like a one off specific event, the event of the cold air being moved is not.

Cold air being shunted from polar regions has become a consistent phenomenon which previously was observed very rarely if at all. Europe for example 2 years ago experienced the beast from the East at exactly this time due to the same process.

So cliffs is we are not looking at one specific event, we are looking at a mechanism that has effected weather in a consistent pattern over a recent time frame.
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02-28-2021 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Its not one specific extreme weather event, this is a shallow superficial way of observing this event.

Cold air has to come from somewhere, the air in Texas did not magically become cold.

What you have to look at is not where the air arrived, but where it came from.

So if cold air is consistently being moved from one place, but due to the complex systems you mention, often arriving at/affecting "weather" in different places then whilst in the area the cold air arrives it might look like a one off specific event, the event of the cold air being moved is not.

Cold air being shunted from polar regions has become a consistent phenomenon which previously was observed very rarely if at all. Europe for example 2 years ago experienced the beast from the East at exactly this time due to the same process.

So cliffs is we are not looking at one specific event, we are looking at a mechanism that has effected weather in a consistent pattern over a recent time frame.
Still happens rarely! Probably explains 1899 weather too!
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02-28-2021 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
This is very much still a matter of research, there are ideas, some are gaining traction and we have in recent years gotten more solid models that show these links, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions and few definite answers. We certainly have grounds to say climate change is driving a change in extreme weather, however. This is the leading scientific consensus.

The link between climate and weather is a strange one, because it is on one hand completely obvious and on the other hand a result of interconnecting phenomena making a system of gargantuan complexity.

Regardless of any of this, it is certainly not the case that me or you should point to any one specific extreme weather event and go "aha! Climate change!".
The voice of reason, great post
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02-28-2021 , 11:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
This is very much still a matter of research, there are ideas, some are gaining traction and we have in recent years gotten more solid models that show these links, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions and few definite answers. We certainly have grounds to say climate change is driving a change in extreme weather, however. This is the leading scientific consensus.

The link between climate and weather is a strange one, because it is on one hand completely obvious and on the other hand a result of interconnecting phenomena making a system of gargantuan complexity.

Regardless of any of this, it is certainly not the case that me or you should point to any one specific extreme weather event and go "aha! Climate change!".
Agreed.

Trying to pin climate change to any singular event just kind of misses the point.

If this coming season we have another record year for devastating hurricanes doubling all prior top years, and someone like BlueWave is trying to say 'prove that Hurricane 4 this season was a result a climate change' as a way to argue we are not sure climate change is having an impact, he should be ignored in the discussion.

If he is going to look for the next singular big cold front or snow fall in Texas, or the next Hurricane or the next wildfire in California as if those specific events repeating are the only evidence that matters, then again he should be ignored.

Climate change is about a change in patterns and severity over time.

We can observe those patterns happening in real time and some people just refuse (mischievous or ignorance) to connect the dots between that and real weather outcomes.
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02-28-2021 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave!
The voice of reason, great post
None of the science disagrees with that position. It is an underlying tenet of climate change science.


Do you acknowledge that even the Big Oil interests have flipped to not only acknowledging climate change, especially in Texas, as a risk but they are now asking the Federal and Texas gov't to spend tax payer money to protect their assets from it? To fortify things around them to withstand more severe weather? Did you read my article provided prior?

And why would you think they might do that? To push the 'myth' of climate change?
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02-28-2021 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave!
Still happens rarely! Probably explains 1899 weather too!
Its happened twice in the last 3 years.
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02-28-2021 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeflonDawg


I love this clip

I do not deny climate change btw
you think he would hav the same stance today?
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02-28-2021 , 08:46 PM
"The planet is fine. The people are f***ed.

The planet isn't going anywhere. We are. We're going away... just another failed mutation. A surface nuisance."
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02-28-2021 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habman
"The planet is fine. The people are f***ed.

The planet isn't going anywhere. We are. We're going away... just another failed mutation. A surface nuisance."
Indeed, environmentalism is badly named. The environment will be here long after our hypothetical mass suicide in the name of idiocy.
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02-28-2021 , 08:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
Indeed, environmentalism is badly named. The environment will be here long after our hypothetical mass suicide in the name of idiocy.
Exactly.

My biggest argument: population control.

That is the only thing that will effect change.

No one likes to hear it or talk about it though.
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02-28-2021 , 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
More on the 'not science' front as major Oil and Gas industry companies in Texas, in 2018 where lobbying the governemtn to use taxpayer money to fortify the area around their facilities to protect against what they cite as the future effects of climate change.

You know, just for the lulz. When it comes to admitting climate change is happening and perhaps a carbon tax should be in place to help offset the costs of dealing with it, fingers in ears, 'nah nah nah not listening. Fake science'. As those impacts extract real cost from Oil and Gas assets, 'heh citizens, you need to pay to fix this for us, so we don't end up stuck with any of the costs'.


Big oil asks government to protect it from climate change


As the nation plans new defenses against the more powerful storms and higher tides expected from climate change, one project stands out: an ambitious proposal to build a nearly 60-mile “spine” of concrete seawalls, earthen barriers, floating gates and steel levees on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Like other oceanfront projects, this one would ... shield some of the crown jewels of the petroleum industry, which is blamed for contributing to global warming and now wants the federal government to build safeguards against the consequences of it...


...Texas is seeking at least $12 billion for the full coastal spine, with nearly all of it coming from public funds. Last month, the government fast-tracked an initial $3.9 billion for three separate, smaller storm barrier projects that would specifically protect oil facilities....

...“The oil and gas industry is getting a free ride,” said Brandt Mannchen, a member of the Sierra Club’s executive committee in Houston. “You don’t hear the industry making a peep about paying for any of this and why should they? There’s all this push like, ‘Please Senator Cornyn, Please Senator Cruz, we need money for this and that.’”

Normally outspoken critics of federal spending, Texas Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz both backed using taxpayer funds to fortify the oil facilities’ protections and the Texas coast. Cruz called it “a tremendous step forward.”...

...Phillips 66 and other energy firms spent money last year lobbying Congress on storm-related funding post-Harvey, campaign finance records show, and Houston's Lyondell Chemical Co. PAC lobbied for building a coastal spine.

"The coastal spine benefits more than just our industry," Bob Patel, CEO of LyondellBasell, one of the world's largest plastics, chemicals and refining companies, said in March. "It really needs to be a regional effort."
in capitalism the costs are paid by the people while the profits go the few at the top of these cartels.
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02-28-2021 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure
you think he would hav the same stance today?
If he was around today he'd be cancelled so it wouldn't matter.
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03-01-2021 , 04:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habman
Exactly.

My biggest argument: population control.

That is the only thing that will effect change.

No one likes to hear it or talk about it though.
The average childbirth per woman has more than halved since the 1950s, and we're fast approaching what Hans Rosling called "peak child", the point in time where the number of child births in the world no longer increase. Indded most projections show no more children in 2100 than we have today.

The big driver of today's population increase is increasing lifespans. In short we should expect the curve to flatten even more at some point in the not so distant future.

But in terms of the environment, the most polluting nations on earth are those who have long had rather stable populations, aka. the "developed world". That sort of flies in the face of the idea that the key to less strain on the environment is less people. We seem more than able to strain an incredible amount of resources regardless.

But perhaps the biggest issue is that we don't really have a clue what population control is. We know high child mortality rates do not really stump population growth much, we know that access to good healthcare does not trigger population growth. Nations which have tried aggressive and direct population control wonders have learned the hard way that interfering with human ecology that way is a bit like pushing random buttons on a machine we do not fully understand.

About the only solid thing we know is that education, and especially education of women, and equal rights seem to work wonders.
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03-01-2021 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habman
"The planet is fine. The people are f***ed.

The planet isn't going anywhere. We are. We're going away... just another failed mutation. A surface nuisance."
Haha, I get a lot of flack when I point this out.

The planet will easily endure the worst mankind can impose on it. We could detonate the entire nuclear arsenal and the planet would endure. It would change greatly on the surface as evolution began anew but it would endure. The challenges of the primordial ooze were overcome. We too shall pass.

One need only look at the Wolves of Chernobyl documentary and see how quickly the planet (an area) rebounds when man creates enough destruction in an area that man can no longer survive there. In rapid fashion the planet takes that area back and flourishes beyond what it was before man apparently made it inhabitable.
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03-01-2021 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
If he was around today he'd be cancelled so it wouldn't matter.
I mean they kinda tried in one of their own ways Saying curse words triggers some people bigly. He and Lenny Bruce(jail as well for him) got targeted/arrested etc just for talking.

And then in another not too dissimilar form--you got to run the gauntlet trying to avoid the felon tag for touching a plant
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03-08-2021 , 11:51 AM
As the outrage due to price gauging grew the Governor and others claimed they would look into it. They did and the results are in...


Texas Won't Reduce $16 Billion In Electricity Charges From Winter Storm
March 6, 2021



...Texans facing those unexpected bills were hoping that Texas' utility regulator would retroactively reduce the electricity market prices. But on Friday, the Public Utility Commission of Texas chose to let the charges stand.

It might seem like retroactively reducing the charges would be good for consumers, said Texas PUC Chairman Arthur D'Andrea during Friday's public meeting. But, he argued, that reflects a "simplistic" view of how Texas power markets work.

"We just see the tip of the iceberg," D'Andrea said. "You don't know who you're hurting. You think you're protecting the consumer and turns out you're bankrupting a co-op or a city. And so it's dangerous, after something is run, to go around and redo it."
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03-08-2021 , 11:51 AM
Remember folks you only see the tip of the iceberg. The tip of the considerations and you just do not understand who will be hurt if you make them reduce these profits and not gauge like this.

'Like hitting the jackpot': Dallas Cowboys owner makes huge profit from monster Texas freeze
Jerry Jones’s company Comstock Resources sees a spike in prices as gas demand in Texas rises.

By
Alexandra Kelley | Feb. 18, 2021

"...This week is like hitting the jackpot with some of these incredible prices,“ Burns told reporters. “Frankly, we were able to sell at super premium prices for a material amount of production...."
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03-08-2021 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWave!
Low temp in Dallas occurred in 1899. Greenhouse gas emissions weren’t at the levels they’re at today. Weather has been volatile for a long, long time! Correlation != Causation!!!! Tropical storms/hurricane names got into the Greeks in 2020. The increased storm activity over the last decade in the Caribbean makes it a high probability of being caused by climate change. If Texas starts having these cold weather events with much more frequency then I will change my tune!!!
I sure hope not. This is why we all need to support Bitcoin. Help warm the planet so we don't have to experience winters like this ever again. Today it's in the 70s and it's wonderful. 90 degrees plus is ideal pool weather though so I can't wait until summer!
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03-09-2021 , 01:54 PM
I want to make clear that this push, as gross as it is, is ongoing.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
I doubt you see any real change.

The way CEO pay and investor return is too often tied to short term gains means there is almost no incentive to fix this very broken system.

They in fact did maximize profits by choosing to NOT reduce profits over the years by making the type of big capital expenditures that nearby El Paso did after the last massively damaging cold spell. They ignored all the reports to do so. And in so doing made lots of profits in those intervening years. El Paso's utilities would have made substantially more too, almost certainly if they ignored the upgrade costs.

Now it might be possible that they would end up giving all those profits back and more, if this incident cost them more to repair and especially if people could sue them for damages and loss of life. But the way the system works and likely gov't enacted liability protections, , and knowing Federal money is now coming in to bail them out, I doubt that.

I would also bet some Federal Money is allocated to upgrade all the facilities meaning they get socialism to cut their losses and then socialism to build their improved infrastructure for tomorrow. And then they get to go back to maximizing their private profits.

People need to understand how this incentives 'worst practices' and not bets practices. True 'moral hazard'.


Neighbouring El Paso takes money that would otherwise go towards the bottom line to protect their assets. This reduces profits short term but has potential to pay back, over time due to less down time and repair costs.

The rest of Texas says 'nope' and instead without those costs enjoy greater short term profits, then they otherwise would, and many make record profits during the Storm and outage time.

When it comes to where the Short Term profit choice, by the utilities could really hurt their bottom line, as they have to repair and maybe finally upgrade, they instead use the Storm to advocate for the Federal Gov't and State to provide them bailout money, to cover their costs and rebuild their infrastructure for the future.

This is about as clear an example of the free market desire to keep all profits and socialize all losses and costs.








Texas formed its own power grid to escape federal regulation. Now Sen. John Cornyn thinks it should be bailed out anyway

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn announced Thursday that he is working on legislation to help weatherize the Texas electrical grid by creating a new federal grant program at the Department of Energy.

Texas has a grid of its own that enables it to avoid federal rules and regulations, a point that Cornyn acknowledged would bring criticism of the state seeking federal money. But the senior Republican senator of Texas argued the funding was necessary to make sure the widespread outages that let millions in the dark and freezing cold do not happen again.

“Our grid is part of critical infrastructure,” he said. “It has an impact on the entire economy and national security.” The plan he intends to introduce in Congress, he said, is “not Texas-specific.”...

...“My administration will be there every step of the way with you,” Biden said.

Cornyn does not have a dollar amount yet for the proposed grid weatherization program but said that it will be modeled on the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program, which provides funding for low income households to weatherize their homes.
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