If Trump wasn't a shoe in for 2024 I might worry that this Hunter thing has legs.

This isn't really about legal loopholes.

Democracies function due to norms, not laws. We know this because brutal dictatorships often have the same shiny, pretty laws that democracies have.

That people begin exploit these loopholes to circumvent democracy simply means they no longer respect or care about democratic process. Basically, if it isn't illegal or not provably illegal, it is seen as justified. If this becomes the political norm, you will no longer be a democracy. You might have the nice and shiny processes and traditions of a democracy, but that's the easy part.

That can't really be fixed with creating more laws or legal reform, there will always be loopholes and gray areas. This is a foundational and institutional problem.

This doesn't mean I am opposed to political reforms and regulation, but I see it more as a tool for adjusting lesser issues.

It also should be mentioned that governing something like transition of power with very direct law as opposed to legal principles and norms can be hugely problematic in itself.

Such laws could make it easier to ignore democratic process, as the power to decide succession / transition of power rests on fewer people and institutions.

Ya agreed.

And that is why US Democracy may be doomed if the population does not make a turn towards wanting and voting for Politicians that respect the prior norms.

I have heard a few discussions that almost every one of the Norms Trump exploited and basically said, if there is no law stopping me then I am free to act, would get worse if the counter to that is to try and codify all those vulnerabilities into new laws.

With every new law crafted, we know that instantly lawyers will figure out clear exploits to the law (wrong but not prosecutable enough to secure verdict) and that will become the standard to hold someone like Trump to account.

The Founders knew it would be impossible to conceive and craft laws to prevent the worst type of offenses and assumed Norms, upheld would give the type of broad protections for the House and Senate to keep bad actors in check in the way laws could never do.

I am curious tame, if you read this post (below) by me from upthread and if you could see anyway to stop Trump in that situation?

I think many people believe just because the SC ruled in Gore V Bush that is the end of the road as SC are binding. They are not. NOt in areas where the separation of powers gives the SC no jurisdiction. The factions can 'agree' to throw it to the SC, or one can push it there and seek a ruling, but it is only moral support of a position and not binding.

If you have the Senate affirm a vote (even a fraudulent one) and as a secondary measure you have the House vote and they affirm the same POTUS, even if fraudulent, the SC has no role in being arbiter.

Beyond that history has had POTUS who scoffed at SC exposing they have no power to enforce them and even the SC noting that at the time. Much like when Bill Barr's Justice department refused to act on any illegality identified by the House, the House had no real enforcement measure.

Agreed.

Seeing this now after writing basically the same but in my usual much longer winded fashion.

It occurred to me this morning that, at least in one respect, Trump may not be the biggest threat to democracy that the Republicans could offer up in 2024. If Trump ran and won in 2024, it would be his last presidential election. He of course would go crazy and allege fraud if he lost, but a challenger alleging fraud is much less of a threat to democracy than an incumbent alleging fraud.

The kill shot for American democracy would be if a Trump-like candidate won in 2024, stood for reelection in 2028 with a GOP Congress, lost in a close vote, and then refused to leave office.

If the Trump wing of the party wins the nomination, then it probably means that Trump himself is the nominee, so maybe my worst case scenario is very remote.

Even so, damn.

I only speak for myself, and offer no authority other than my own ideological bent.

But first and foremost, we should establish that what you are describing is a coup. It is dressed in a veneer of democracy or established process, like coups often are. This is of course why the actions of Trump's inner circle actually matter: Because this is what they wanted to accomplish. If the coup is accepted by the highest institutions in the land (either through affirming it or ignoring it), then you are in democratic nomad's land. There is no magic legal or political switch or established method of returning to democracy.

Since the US is a union with considerable governance in individual states, I could imagine that the initial fight starts there; that different states would react differently. Some would likely accept it (given that anything that came out of the Trump administration was their gospel), others would reject it.

If you are lucky, this would be enough. Not that it would be pretty. I suspect institutions would mangle themselves, government would be in shambles and the necessary reforms and concessions would be the cause of widespread political division for years to come.

But ultimately I suspect it would go beyond that. I'm sorry to say that the higher echelons of US government to me has come across as gutless and completely paralyzed when it comes to tackling corruption of the highest offices. It is as if the default is that "this can not happen, so we will continue to act as if it did not".

So, I'd say your only true way out would be political protest. You'd need to throw a wrench into the economic and political system big enough to grind everything to a halt and force concessions and reforms. The "nice" side of that would be widespread civil disobedience. Civil disobedience of course resides in a democratic vacuum, it needs to be both illegal and accepted, simply because democracies are not perfect. Exactly what form this would take is anyone's guess. It could be like recent Belgium (collapse of functional government), recent France (widespread civil unrest) or upwards from there. Given Trump's character when faced with such things in the past, he seems unlikely to go down the path of mediation so it probably wouldn't be mild. Regardless, the goal would be to force higher institutions into acting.

Beyond that isn't really something that is very fruitful to debate on a forum like this. We're discussing a hypothetical, not writing a manifesto.

We actually do have a historic example of a country where something like it happened and where it was not stopped quickly, namely the end of democracy and introduction of apartheid in South Africa in the late 1940s. An ineffective political opposition, slanted local election practices and thin margin of victory allowed the highest institutions in the land to corrupt democratic norms and disenfranchise the majority of the country. Sure, the disenfranchisement happened alongside ethnic and racial lines, but it is still a striking case study.

Fwiw I always thought that one way to prevent what trump did is to make sure the highest Justice government representative (which would be the AG right ?) be nominated through a 2/3 of senatorial votes .
Making sure confidence of the application of the law been preserve by both parties .

Age aside I disagree. I mean, I kind of agree but not really.

In theory yes. But lets say Trump wins the POTUS in 2024 and is still healthy enough to stay on thru 2028, I am convinced Trump as POTUS for those 4 years will do everything possible to dismantle all the norms and controls that could stop him just seizing power in a very Putin like way.

I think Trump in 2024 completely and absolutely weaponizes the DOJ and DoD by putting in a Jeffrey Clark type to head up both and welcomes and encourages the mass resignations that follow. His base celebrates him 'cleaning out the deep State'. Next step is mass arresting his opponents who dare to try and thwart any of his worse actions. And a DOJ does not even have to stretch to do that as most of Congress could be arrested for Insider Trading, Not filing Proper disclosure forms, and so many other things historically they have got a pass on but so many of them do.

I would bet my money that is why Bill Barr charged Richard Burr and two others for insider trading but then let the other 2 off. Trump needed a signal sent that there was no greater offense than a Republican leading an Investigation into him and that he, and his DOJ would investigate and charge them, if they did.

And the above 're Trump (minus the Richard Burr) is something Bannon speaks about in his podcast now. He says next time Trump and everyone must have the courage to see it thru to the end regardless of threats of resignations or other. Bannon is so upset that 'Norms' and 'people of good conscious' were enough to stop the plot, when they did not have to let them be. He vows 'never again'.

The AG's office needs a rethink. It needs to be better severed for independence from the POTUS and I think the Special Counsel Model should be what they look to template more from.

I still maintain a Mueller like team, empowered to chase down laws around Election Fraud and the Insurrection would be far more effective than the House and DOJ combined.

You saw how Republicans trembled when Mueller was empaneled and then when he started to send out subpoena's. Most came in on their best behaviour and wanted to avoid any perjury, assuming (rightly or wrongly) Mueller generally had the answers to the question so they better answer honestly.

Mueller's team would have (I am certain) put out dozens of indictments already for all the "Obstructing an official proceeding" stuff, related to fake electors. He just would not care about optics and would act based on the law being broken and not the optics or the chance a jury might be partisan and not convict. With all of the lower level charges and convictions he would be steadily working his way up towards the Trump inner circle and I think there would be no way, already, that he would not lay those charges. He would wait for more but what is already there would be enough.

While 'knowledge' and 'intent' are key to getting Trump, willful blindness is not a defense against that. As was explained on a podcast I listened to about 3 days ago, you can really not know what is in the suitcase someone has asked you carry across the border, and when you are arrested as it is cocaine you can testify you really did not know as you never asked. BUt if a prosecutor can show you demonstrated willful blindness (that you should have known and or looked and asked) the jury can then convict despite you not truly 'knowing'.

Right now a jury has enough to consider an argument from a Prosecutor that Trump at best, was willfully blind. That he had enough to know, and that if he did not was because he refused to look/listen and was being willfully blind. Maybe a jury lets him escape that but he definitely should be charged and face that jeopardy.

Seems pretty straight forward for a charge against Trump.

Has anyone from Jan 6th been charged with this exact crime?

There are a few 'seditious conspiracy' charges out there.

So fatboy Trump tried to throat grab the Secret Service agent who successfully kept him from the Capitol, rage threw his McDonalds against the wall, knew his yokels were armed and wanted their weapons allowed in so he could have a bigger crowd.

American history is being written in real time, let's discuss cancelling advertisements ft. fat women instead!

The video footage still to come out is going to bury a lot of people at once, can't wait!

Witness tampering on top of seditious conspiracy, obstruction of Congress, inciting a riot, etc. etc. Forgot about him grifting 250MM off his yokels with his big lie fundraising, I'm sure wire fraud is another charge.

Dems should run 'Hillary spoke under oath for 11 hours for Benghazi, Donnie Diapers can't handle his cool for 11 seconds *cut to a Trump impersonator hurling a plate of hamberders.* commercials to truly underpin how feckless and incompetent the GOP is/has become in servitude to a demented con man criminal.

Yea, that is just what the Dems should do -- trot out Hillary again.

I said run commercials, to highlight how incapable Donnie Diapers is in being able to speak under oath without implicating himself immediately.

It would show his mouthbreathing supporters that he is far less intelligent, capable, and calm under pressure, than a WOMAN who beat him in the popular vote, you have to carve your message to the misogynist rednecks who hold this conman in esteem.

Obv will be Biden running again, since Donnie Shitstains had withheld Congressionally approved aide from Ukraine in exchange for favors, and why his personal lawyer is sidled up with Russian agents on OANN talking about laptops and other bullshit.

When you have no interest in competing fairly, and seek Russian disinformation to damage your opponent, and you align yourself with nutlow unAmerican POS like Mike Flynn and Rudy Giuliani and other spineless sycophants who beg for pardons after their role in seeking to overturn American government, you should be exposed as often and as widely as possible to break the brainwashing these gullible morons have digested.

If he gets off scot-free from any DOJ charges and is able to run in 2024, this country is done as a leading democratic nation.

Don't forgot he wanted the metal detectors turned off at his rally so all his supporters could come in, who could not otherwise due to be strapped.








Special Counsel Mueller would already be on the March to charge anyone who was tampering with a witness.

i was listening to podcast still with much hand ringing over the idea of an American POTUS being arrested, charged and convicted and what that could mean to American democracy long term.

The usual cry of that is what despot regimes do, chasing the prior one out of the country or into jail.

It was a question of 'is this what America wants and do we really want this precedent set?'

There was actually agreement that Trump needs to be charged, the transgression were that great. But the suggestion that Biden or the next POTUS pardon him instantly upon conviction so he does not get seen doing the perp walk, nor go to jail. So let him face his charges and verdict but spare him the consequences.

The other option floated was if the evidence was so strong that Trump would take a deal, instead cut a deal with him based on certain 'self punishments', where he would not run and participate in a list of things, or all suspended charges would be reinstated.

Curious what people think here? Do you support Trump, a former POTUS doing a perp walk or think, if found guilty a pardon is probably best for the country? Would you prefer DOJ cut a deal instead to avoid all of this, as long as Trump could be put in a box?

^^^ My view is that abuse of power crimes are the most serious an organized State and its officials can do, and they must faced the most serious punishment.

I believe that despite the opposite generally being true and the State and its laws giving officials (Politicians and Police, etc) the most ways to escape consequences and the toughest prosecutions to win.

For instance despite me believing prostitution should be completely decriminalized, I thought Eliot Spitzer should have served the absolute max time possible for his crimes with a prostitute. That is because he was a tough on crime Governor in NY who was pushing to maximize punishment on citizens for those crimes so his punishment should be worse. Thus I believe Trump must be charged and the maximum punishment sought. It is a special level of abuse to be the POTUS and the top lawman while trying to undermine the laws of the country.

The alternative to not charging him with anything is it will set precedent for future ghouls(of which there are many, and much more wily than dingus cheeto) to run roughshod over any and evey 'norm', and more importantly actual law. It would be the literal end of our democracy, and I am being 100% literal here.

Trump tried to stage a coup, he associates with treasonous individuals and white supremacist/domestic terror organizations.

He deserves absolutely no decorum or pageantry, he is the sole reason the GOP will implode on itself and as these hearings continue and more evidence comes out he and his association with him will be radioactive.

The US government is slowly preparing the American public for the previously unfathomable revelation that he is a traitor to his oath and country. Most Americans are dumber than dogshit so you have to counter their brainwashing with an effective deprogramming technique.

Don't really think anything will actually happen tbh. It's pretty much a Mexican Standoff at this point. Trump gets done and it's open season on any and everyone who has skeletons in their closets.

Unfortunately for the US when public service stopped being that and became a very lucrative career it attracted a lot of the most unsavory types with lots of skeletons.