Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
That article is pure wishful thinking if they think pro-Remain tactical voting is going to win seats that voted Leave in 2016 - such as Lib Dem target number 4, St. Ives which was 55-45 Leave.
In fact, I think the reverse applies. Because of the differing enthusiasm/anger levels of Leavers/Remainers with the current situation, I'd say the breakeven point between a seat being practically counted as "leave" rather than "remain" for the purpose of deciding whether the MP or candidate's position is a liability rather than an asset is something like 60-40 majority for Remain. There are only 100 seats in total with more than a 60-40 leave vote of which, 40 are outside England, 60 of them are in England, mostly in London and university cities.
So for example they mention Chingford with 52% Remain in the referendum, that place is going to have more angry leavers than unhappy remainers voting on that basis.
IMHO That's why the polls are as they are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
No.
Yes.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content...19-Tables.xlsx
Table GEN1 has
Which of the following are you most likely to base your vote on - Brexit
broken down (based on answers to other questions) as
Diehard Remainer 59 of the 105 will vote mainly on this issue.
Concerned Remainer 208 of 501
Persuadable Remainer 28 of 134
Subtotal
295 of 740 will vote primarily for Remain
Persuadable Leavers 47 of 214 (now favours soft Brexit - this group is made up of about 50-50 leave/remain voters from 2017, the other groups haven't changed overwhelmingly)
Compromise Leavers 98 of 249
Diehard Leavers 314 of 522
Subtotal
412 of 771 (or 459 of 985 if we include the persuadable leaver group)
So based on this poll overall there are 1.40 times (or 1.56 times) as many people voting primarily based on Leave sentiment as there are people voting primarily based on Remain sentiment.
In other words, a constituency which is originally made up of
58-42 (or 61-39) Remain voters is for the purposes of this election actually neutral ground. If it has a higher number of Remain voters then its an advantage to be a Remain MP or candidate there. If it has a lower number of Remain voters than that its an advantage to be a Leave MP or candidate there. There are about 100 seats in the UK which re thought to have voted by more than 60-40 to remain, only 60 of which are in England, mostly in London and the university cities. All the places in the SE of England which voted narrowly to remain by margins like 52-48 are going to have more Leave voters. It's fantasy for the Lib Dems to think seats like that can be won by pro-Remain tactical voting though they will undoubtedly do well in London.
Someone recently posted on facebook that the election will be an opportunity for politicians to learn how the country they live in differs from their Twitter timeline, it's no surprise that arch-remainer Tom Watson has pulled out after a couple of days campaigning in a seat that voted 68-32 to leave.
Hopefully the takeaway from this election will be that the Left will finally learn that if they hand the Union Jack to the right it's going to get waved back at them in their faces.