Lets not totally dismiss the chances of boris recovering. Plus a tiny chance he stands down
It's very unlikely a key player challanges him directly so we probably need a stalking horse. Thatchers was Sir Anthony Meyer. Boris isn't worshiped in the same way as thacher was but he has a huge majority and it would very politically risky for a serious contender to take him on until he has been wounded by someone else.
Quote:
On 23 November 1989, at a time of both Thatcher's and the Conservative Party's waning popularity and shortly after Nigel Lawson's resignation as chancellor, 69-year-old Meyer put himself forward as the pro-European stalking horse for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Meyer fully expected that one of the more prominent pro-Europeans such as Ian Gilmour or Michael Heseltine would take over the role; in the event, none of them did so, and Meyer had no illusions that he had any chance of success.[3] He was derided as "Sir Anthony Whats'isname" by the pro-Thatcher Sun newspaper, who reported that he was the only Conservative MP to oppose the use of force to win back the Falkland Islands following the Argentine invasion of 1982 and had backed a number of Labour policies, including votes against Tory-led welfare benefit cuts and immigration issues. He was also slammed by the Daily Express as "Sir Nobody".[4]
In the 1989 leadership election on 5 December, Meyer was defeated by 314 votes to 33, but when spoilt votes and abstentions were added it was discovered that 60 MPs out of 374 had failed to support Thatcher. Meyer said that "people started to think the unthinkable", and Thatcher was ousted in November 1990 to be succeeded by John Major.[5]
On 19 January 1990, Meyer was deselected as a candidate for the 1992 general election by the Clwyd North West constituency party for his "treachery", by a 2–1 majority. The deselection campaign was enlivened by a tabloid newspaper's revelation that Meyer had for 26 years had an affair with Simone Washington, a former model and blues singer.[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_An...r,_3rd_Baronet
That's a fun bettingn market