British Politics - Page 205 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

No I was being wolly but holy cow 20% is nowhere near no chance.

If scientists said there's was a 10% chance of runaway climate change if we didn't do something drastic then there will be many who think that means no chance. I'm horrified at the idea that you might be one of them.

If team A has a 90% chance and team B has 10% I would colloquially refer to team B having no chance and that would be entirely standard.

You said would not have had serious chance, somewhat less than 20%

However again this has no bearing on the actual discussion and shows I did not misrepresent you in any way what so ever.

You have to show effectively just as much work to show a reduction from a winning position to 20% as to 0%.

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11-08-2021 , 06:06 PM

#5102

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Anyway Pro EU had a lot of elements pushing against it when it comes to anyone being motivated to argue for it in political life.

1. EU was a convenient scape goat for the loss in QoL post 2008 and for Austerity.

2. Labour thought they could make strategic positives out of the way the EU split the Tory party, if they had effectively made the EU look great to everyone, no more potential split in the tory vote.

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11-08-2021 , 06:11 PM

#5103

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

Yes you cleary did misrepresent me and you still are but I'll leave proving that bothering would have helped to you. I agree with your conclusion even though your proof will be weak.

I accept I may be wrong. Maybe trying hard wouldn't have helped much, maybe it would have made things even worse. I remain in the bothering camp.

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11-08-2021 , 06:12 PM

#5104

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

What bothering did you do?

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11-08-2021 , 06:13 PM

#5105

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

I agree

It was without doubt much easier and more politically convenient simply not to bother.

I'd add 3) that getting on the wrong side of Murdoch was 'brave' as Humphrey might put it

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11-08-2021 , 06:18 PM

#5106

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Also pre Brexit bothering would have pre supposed a large amount of fore sight as no one thought that Brexit was a thing that could actually happen in the future.

If you told people in 2012 that if all other things remain equal Brexit will happen, and it could be perceived as a threat on the horizon that people needed to deal with, then I imagine their would have been a lot more bothering and maybe Leaves chances could have been reduced to non serious. Though given Murdoch et al, this is conjecture.

Its not so much that no one argues for the EU, most if not all relevant voices did not think they had too.

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11-08-2021 , 06:25 PM

#5107

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

What bothering did you do?

probably not enough.

Although I've long been arguing for the geopolitcs of a strong political EU over the USA as our future and better for the world. Certainly as far back as the 2nd Iraq war and over regulatory/trade stuff.

I marched and I argued the pros of the EU but I'm not the politcal leadership we need.

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11-08-2021 , 06:30 PM

#5108

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

I wouldn't start in 2012 but if you're right then I hope we have all bloody well learned something.

Personally I'd have started the real politics over it with the Lisbon treaty.

Last edited by chezlaw; 11-08-2021 at 06:40 PM.

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11-08-2021 , 06:57 PM

#5109

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,793

Maastricht and Lisbon treaty not going to referenda (or referenda happening but being rerun till people picked the 'right' answer, or just plain ignored ) is the root of it really. There was a big clue to how the proto-EU felt about democracy.

Pass a vote, then a lot of the issues would have gone away.

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11-09-2021 , 09:01 AM

#5110

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 13,777

It would never have gone away because you and people like you and the press would still have been inventing "reasons" to hate the EU.

And everyone knows what the underlying reasons for that are.

From an earlier post:

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11-09-2021 , 09:19 AM

#5111

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,793

Ah back to accusations of racism again.

Keep up same arguments without being positive or productive. I'm sure it will work out for you in the end.

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11-09-2021 , 09:21 AM

#5112

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 13,777

When a campaign is boosted by racist advertising it's logical to say that racism formed a significant part of the reasons why people voted for it.

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11-09-2021 , 09:23 AM

#5113

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,793

Do you agree with Blair about Lisbon, that that treaty wasn't giving up any significant powers, so therefore a referendum wasn't needed?

Or do you agree with me, that he was bare-faced lying?

Or do you think something else about it?

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11-09-2021 , 10:00 AM

#5114

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,706

You can deny it all you want but surveys consistently show that racist attitudes are the strongest predictors of voting for Brexit.

You can pretend otherwise all you want but it's just factually true Brexit derived a lot of support from racist attitudes.

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11-09-2021 , 10:08 AM

#5115

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,793

Yes that is true. I never pretended racism wasn't a factor, it just wasn't a factor for me. I just didn't want to lose national democracy to a centralised autocracy that isn't directly accountable - you cannot vote out the bad policy-steerers and decision-makers.

Not all of the vote was about race. Going on and on and on about racism does not move the debate forward one millimetre, but please go on with that if you must.

I'm sure it will work out for you in the end.

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11-09-2021 , 10:17 AM

#5116

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,706

Sometimes it's good to stare at yourself in the mirror and recognize your own racist tendencies. I don't make that accusation easily but your posting history strongly suggests some of your positions are underpinned by some pretty racist attitudes.

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11-09-2021 , 02:25 PM

#5117

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 13,777

You're right of course, but the problem is that many people with racist attitudes don't believe that anything short of outright racist abuse can count as racism, because their understanding of the subject is so naive.

This tends to be more true of older people like diebitter than younger people because their attitudes were formed and fossilised in the 1970s and 1980s.

A contemporary understanding of the world is all too much for them, but Dunning-Kruger convinces them that they're right.

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11-09-2021 , 03:53 PM

#5118

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

We can't all have the benefit of being geniuses.

Being realistic about our abilities can be a constant struggle for the rest of us.

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11-09-2021 , 04:00 PM

#5119

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 13,777

...and here comes the definitely-not-name-calling chezlaw again, who just can't help but stick up for racists around the world.

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11-09-2021 , 04:11 PM

#5120

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

You can certainly rely on me to always oppose your 'vote for us you stupid racist bigots' approach to politics.

and you can call me names if you like.

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11-09-2021 , 04:30 PM

#5121

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 13,777

It would be helpful to have some definitions we can all agree on.

diebietter (and ElRazor before he recanted) thought the quote "You can't say anything about the immigrants because they'll say you're racist" isn't a racist statement.

What do you think, chez?

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11-09-2021 , 04:38 PM

#5122

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

I think you're wrong and you're approach isn't remotely helpful.

Next? can we get back to politics now?

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11-09-2021 , 07:04 PM

#5123

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 65,793

Amazing.

Talk of fossilised attitudes from people who cannot and will not move on from 'you're racist and stupid' duckspeak, after 5 years have passed since the referendum.

And talk about inability to self-examine too.

Amazing.

Keep on the same tack, I'm sure it will work out for you in the end.

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11-09-2021 , 08:02 PM

#5124

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Oh noes Jalfrazi, because you said mean things about DB on an obscure message board and made some historical observations about influences in the referendum you wont single handily be able to reverse Brexit.

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11-09-2021 , 08:16 PM

#5125

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 47,230

Unfortuantely the future is quite likely to be far worse. We are seeign a rise in extemism,racism etc that is still in it's early stages. I'm generally an optimist but I think there's a shitstorm on the way.

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